The Premier League winner odds changed hugely over the weekend, with Liverpool's odds almost doubling to 8/1 after their shock loss to Nottingham Forest at Anfield.
The Reds had seen their price drop to 9/2 after an impressive 3-0 win at Old Trafford but Arne Slot's first defeat as boss has seen the bookies bank on a two-horse race again.
Champions Manchester City still lead the Premier League winner odds market but Arsenal passed a big test at the weekend with a derby win at Tottenham and look set to push them all the way for a second successive season.
Contents
Top 10 best Premier League winner odds
| Manchester City |
1/1 |
| Arsenal |
2/1 |
| Liverpool |
8/1 |
| Chelsea |
40/1 |
| Man Utd |
66/1 |
| Newcastle |
66/1 |
| Aston Villa |
80/1 |
| Spurs |
80/1 |
| Brighton |
200/1 |
| West Ham |
1000/1 |
Current Premier League title favourites
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola's men have made an ominous start by easing to four successive wins over Chelsea, Ipswich Town, West Ham United and Brentford, with most firms now making them just evens for a fifth successive crown.
But they have been heavy reliant on runaway Golden Boot favourite Erling Haaland who took his Premier League tally to nine goals already with a double against the Bees.
The champions are looking slick but does Guardiola have enough quality in reserve if key players, particularly Haaland, suffer injuries? With the Champions League kicking off there's a packed fixture list to contend with, not to mention a potential points deduction that has powered their unusually short relegation odds.
Man City face their first big test at the weekend as Arsenal come calling and you'd imagine they will become odds-on favourites if they can beat the Gunners at the Etihad.
Arsenal
The Gunners passed a big test of title mettle with that 1-0 win in the derby away to Spurs, with key men Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard missing due to suspension and injury.
Mikel Arteta has built a squad full of character and it's clear Arsenal have the best defence in the league as they limited Tottenham to very few chances. With away wins over Aston Villa and Spurs already in the bank, Arteta's side will need to dig deep again at the weekend when they head to the Etihad.
Arsenal's Premier League odds are now 2/1 with most firms but if they drop five points behind Manchester City with a weekend defeat then that price will lengthen. Arteta ground out a 0-0 draw at the Etihad last term and you suspect he'd bite your hand off for a similar result.
Liverpool
Arne Slot has made an impressive start to life in the Liverpool hot seat, with 2-0 wins over Ipswich and Brentford followed by a statement 3-0 victory at Old Trafford.
But he suffered his first setback with that shock defeat to Forest and it has raised questions about whether the Reds have what it takes to mount a title push.
They have a tough Champions League opener away to AC Milan this week and follow it up with another home at home to Bournemouth. It's vitally important for Slot's side to bounce back with a win over the Cherries if they want to keep their title bid on track.
Premier League outright winner betting trends
Here are some trends to consider when placing a bet on the Premier League outright winner.
| Manchester City |
2024 |
91 |
96 |
| Manchester City |
2023 |
89 |
94 |
| Manchester City |
2022 |
93 |
99 |
| Manchester City |
2021 |
86 |
83 |
| Liverpool |
2020 |
99 |
85 |
| Manchester City |
2019 |
98 |
95 |
| Manchester City |
2018 |
100 |
106 |
| Chelsea |
2017 |
93 |
85 |
| Leicester |
2016 |
81 |
68 |
| Chelsea |
2015 |
87 |
73 |
The last 10 Premier League title winners
The past decade has been dominated by Manchester City, with six Premier League trophies following their first triumph back in 2011/12. The only other teams to lift the PL trophy over the past 10 editions are Chelsea (twice), Liverpool and – most incredibly of all – Leicester City, who stood as 5000/1 outsiders in some places ahead of their miracle 2015/16 title campaign.
Points gained by Premier League title winners
Beyond simply backing a winner, some bookmakers also offer the chance to bet on a team achieving more than a certain number of points. Based on current trends in the Premier League title market, the average requirement to win the PL over the past decade is for a team to get 91.7 points – a significant growth compared to the average tallies needed earlier in the PL’s lifetime. City’s dominance has played a big role in that, especially with their record-high total of 100 points in 2017/18.
Number of goals scored by Premier League title winners
Teams that are particularly lethal up front may have a special market opened up for them, where a bettor can back them to hit a particular quota of goals. Current champions Man City have hit 90+ goals in all but one of the preceding seven seasons, with three occasions seeing them even get beyond 100. Once again, City could be a wise pick to reach a century of goals again in 2024/25, whether they win the title or not.
Who will win the Premier League in 2024/25? Here's our prediction
Arsenal were our picks before a ball was kicked and the way the ground out a win in the North London derby bodes well for a sustained title push.
A lot will depend on the outcome of the huge weekend clash with Manchester City but if the Gunners can emerge unscathed they look at decent value for punters, especially with City’s backstage troubles.
I'm a sports journalist, football tipster and author from Dundee, who is now working in Glasgow. I've covered games at every level, from Junior football to internationals, and still love football even though it has clearly sold its soul. I've been in football tipping since 2018 with the MFT site.
In December 2020 we sadly 
