Premier League winner odds and prediction: Top team extend the gap

An unexpected defeat for Manchester City and another draw for Arsenal saw rivals Liverpool to extend their lead at the top of the Premier League table after a fantastic turnaround victory against Brighton. Mo Salah was once again on the scoresheet to secure another win for the Reds.

Man City's odds drifted to 23/10 for the Premier League title, with Liverpool shortening to 13/10 after cementing pole position in the race for the title. Manchester City suffered a surprise loss to Brighton, who were aided by a winner from Matt O'Riley.

Top 10 best Premier League winner odds

Current Premier League title favourites

Arsenal

Another winless weekend for Arsenal as they drew away from home to Chelsea. This extended Arsenal's winless league run to four games, a sorry sight for boss Mikel Arteta. While there is still time for Arsenal to recover, they already sit nine points behind Arne Slot's Liverpool, having won only five of their opening 11 fixtures. The Gunners' odds have slipped to 4/1, and it would now seem very unlikely that they will go on to lift the title.

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola's men also suffered a shocking defeat, as underdogs Brighton narrowly beat them 2-1 with a late turnaround. The Spaniard lost his fourth game on the bounce for the first time ever in his Manchester City career, an unwanted record which saw the Citizens shift to 23/10 to win the league. City fans will have been happy to see Erling Haaland back on the scoresheet, but the team just cannot seem to see out their leads and secure three points. Now five points behind Liverpool, it is going to be an uphill battle for City to reel them back in.

Liverpool

Liverpool just cannot stop winning at the moment. Defeated only once in all competitions so far this season, Slot's Reds cruised past Aston Villa with a 2-0 win. Mohamed Salah took his tally to eight goals for the season and Liverpool remained firmly at the table's summit, creating some breathing space between themselves and their closest rivals. With their next league game against a struggling Southampton side after the international break, it looks unlikely that Liverpool's form will dip any time soon. Bookies have them priced at 13/10 to lift this season's Premier League trophy.

Premier League outright winner betting trends

Here are some trends to consider when placing a bet on the Premier League outright winner.

The last 10 Premier League title winners

The past decade has been dominated by Manchester City, with six Premier League trophies following their first triumph back in 2011/12. The only other teams to lift the PL trophy over the past 10 editions are Chelsea (twice), Liverpool and – most incredibly of all – Leicester City, who stood as 5000/1 outsiders in some places ahead of their miracle 2015/16 title campaign.

Points gained by Premier League title winners

Beyond simply backing a winner, some bookmakers also offer the chance to bet on a team achieving more than a certain number of points. Based on current trends in the Premier League title market, the average requirement to win the PL over the past decade is for a team to get 91.7 points – a significant growth compared to the average tallies needed earlier in the PL’s lifetime. City’s dominance has played a big role in that, especially with their record-high total of 100 points in 2017/18.

Number of goals scored by Premier League title winners

Teams that are particularly lethal up front may have a special market opened up for them, where a bettor can back them to hit a particular quota of goals. Current champions Man City have hit 90+ goals in all but one of the preceding seven seasons, with three occasions seeing them even get beyond 100.  Once again, City could be a wise pick to reach a century of goals again in 2024/25, whether they win the title or not.

Who will win the Premier League in 2024/25? Here's our prediction

Arsenal were our picks before a ball was kicked and they look like the real deal after taking seven points from nine on the road against Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa. The Gunners’ most recent league wins (over Leicester and Southampton) also showed that they can respond well to adversity.

Liverpool look set to make it a three-way fight for the crown. But if City do not suffer any points deductions, you'd imagine it will end up a scrap between City and the Gunners once again. With Arteta's side showing so much character, I still fancy them to end Guardiola's recent dominance of the English top flight.

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