Premier League winner odds and prediction: 5/1 outsiders could cause shocking upset

The Premier League title race is really hotting up, with Liverpool still the current favourites to claim their second of the coveted accolade. 

While Chelsea and Arsenal have been hot on their heels for many weeks, recent poor performances from both have meant that neither have been able to capitalise on dropped points from Arne Slot's Reds.

Now, with over half the season completed, it is really looking like Liverpool's title to lose.

Top 10 best Premier League winner odds

Current Premier League title favourites

Liverpool

Liverpool are the side currently leading the Premier League, having stretched their unbeaten league run to 15 matches after coming away with a 2-2 draw against Manchester United at the weekend.

This was actually a poor result for Liverpool in a game that many moons ago would have been billed as a title classic, as the Red Devils have struggled this season, currently residing in 13th place.

Goals from Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo were cancelled out by those of Lisandro Martinez and Amad Diallo. United left it late, but Amad's strike was able to salvage a point for Ruben Amorim's side.

As was once the case during Jurgen Klopp's reign at Anfield, Salah has easily been the league's best player this season, leading both the scoring charts and the golden boot odds. This has contributed heavily to the Reds' surge to the top of the table.

With that in mind, Man City’s Erling Haaland has looked more ‘humble' by the week after his infamous one-liner back in September.

In truth, it makes little sense to back the Reds for the sake of a handsome profit, with bookies pricing them at an uninspiring 2/7.

However, there are certainly some more attractive options involving a Liverpool title win. Keep an eye out in particular for goals and points betting. After all, the last time Liverpool had this sort of momentum, they won the title with 99 points!

Arsenal

The 2024/25 season has been a mixed bag for the Gunners so far, with Mikel Arteta's men enjoying some convincing victories, but also enduring some underwhelming performances.

Not least of those was this weekend's 1-1 draw with Brighton, a game in which many felt Arsenal failed to truly get going. Arteta was also outraged at the penalty awarded to the Seagulls, which allowed Joao Pedro to convert his fifth goal of the campaign.

With 11 wins from 20 games, it has yet to become a disaster for Arsenal, but they have certainly lacked the consistency of the season prior, in which they finished with 89 points.

Many would have backed them to go all the way with Manchester City's shocking downfall, but the Gunners have been blunt in attack at times, struggling to fashion chances from open play when it really mattered.

At 5/1, they are definite outsiders given the six-point gap to leaders Liverpool, but most would argue they still have some chance at claiming a fourth title.

Chelsea

Chelsea are a tough team to gauge. There is the rich potential for goals and some eye-catching football, but they lack the consistency of true title contenders, especially when compared to Jose Mourinho’s most ruthless squads of yesteryear.

Liverpool’s draws against Fulham and Newcastle earlier in December gave Chelsea the chance to close the gap.

However, this potential opportunity has turned into a complete catastrophe for Enzo Maresca's Blues. Draws against Crystal Palace and Everton have been worsened by landmark losses to Fulham and Ipswich, resulting in a four-game winless run in the league.

Although their UEFA Conference League involvement has been a mere sideshow to the ongoing title fight, it could still be something of a disruptive influence in the later rounds, even if it’s only ever going to be an elongated tryout for fringe players.

Now ten points adrift of Liverpool, and having played a game extra, the bookies' estimations of 7o/1 seem fair for Chelsea, who some may say have passed up a very strong chance at a formidable title charge.

Who will win the Premier League in 2024/25? 

With Man City falling off a cliff and London’s big two still perhaps lacking that special something needed to catch Liverpool, everything points to Arne Slot lifting the title in his first season at Anfield – a feat last achieved by any Liverpool boss in 1985/86, when Kenny Dalglish made the seamless transition from player to player-manager.

Premier League outright winner betting trends

Here are some trends to consider when placing a bet on the Premier League outright winner.

The last 10 Premier League title winners

The past decade has been dominated by Manchester City, with six Premier League trophies following their first triumph back in 2011/12.

The only other teams to lift the PL trophy over the past 10 editions are Chelsea (twice), Liverpool and – most incredibly of all – Leicester City, who stood as 5000/1 outsiders in some places ahead of their miracle 2015/16 title campaign:

Points gained by Premier League title winners

Based on current trends in the Premier League title market, the average requirement to win the PL over the past decade is for a team to get 91.7 points – a significant growth compared to the average tallies needed earlier in the PL’s lifetime. City’s dominance has played a big role in that, especially with their record-high total of 100 points in 2017/18.

Number of goals scored by Premier League title winners

Teams that are particularly lethal up front may have a special market opened up for them, where a bettor can back them to hit a particular quota of goals. Current champions Man City have hit 90+ goals in all but one of the preceding seven seasons, with three occasions seeing them even get beyond 100.

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