Premier League top scorer odds and prediction: Three-time winner still a tempting 11/1

With the 2024/25 campaign now gathering pace, the bookies have a clear favourite in the Premier League top scorer odds market. That man is, of course, the two-time consecutive Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland.

However, a few other big names are looking for their chance to take the crown from the Norwegian. With that in mind, we take a closer look at the Premier League top scorer odds for the 2024/25 season, and make our prediction on who will end up as the competition’s top gun in May.

Best Premier League top scorer odds

Erling Haaland

Ever since he came into the league, the Norwegian phenom has shattered many goalscoring records, including the most goals in a Premier League season, with 36 in his debut campaign immediately after joining Man City. Last season, he scored ‘only’ 27 goals, though he also appeared in fewer games compared to his debut season due to injury.

In any case, Haaland looks poised to keep the goalscoring crown once again, as the 24-year-old will keep getting great service from the many talents of the reigning champions. He wasted no time getting up and running for the campaign, netting the opening goal in a 2-0 win against Chelsea that started the club's latest title defence in style.

Matchday two also proved fruitful for the Norwegian, as he laid waste to Ipswich Town with a hat-trick against the new boys, and then followed it up with another hat-trick against West Ham. And he reacted well to criticism over his performance for Norway in a 0-0 UEFA Nations League draw with Kazakhstan, netting the winner against Austria, before resuming domestic duties with a double over Brentford.

Although the eventual 2-1 victory – which maintained City's 100% start to 2024/25 – was the most important thing, there was also a tinge of personal disappointment at not completing a third successive hat-trick. That's because he had two goals under his belt after just 32 minutes, but ultimately failed to become the first English top-flight player since Liverpool's Jack Balmer (in 1946) to do that.

Regardless, this has all significantly impacted his odds in this market (as short as 1/8 now) and effectively killed it already, barring an injury or a severe downturn in form coupled with a surge for someone else. Indeed, he started the season at 8/11, and his odds to take a third straight golden boot award have consistently shortened week on week, so backing anyone else seems highly speculative.

Mohamed Salah

The experienced Egyptian has been the top scorer in the Premier League three times before, though twice he had to share the crown with other players. Also, with tallies of 19 and 18 goals in the last two seasons, Salah has fallen slightly behind some others – especially Haaland.

Whether Salah still has another great run in him at 32 years of age remains to be seen. His acclimatisation to the Arne Slot regime is another factor that needs to be considered. However, a return of three goals in as many Premier League games under him during August hints that this process may already be complete.

Admittedly, the Egyptian's price lengthened further after Liverpool's shock home defeat to Nottingham Forest on matchday four. When Liverpool return from their midweek UCL trip to Milan, Salah will face a Bournemouth side that he has a good personal record against, scoring in seven separate PL clashes against the Cherries and being on the winning side every time.

Better still for Reds fans eager to see an immediate bounce back, six of those produced a multi-goal margin of victory, the latest of which saw him net the decisive goal in last season's corresponding clash at Anfield.

Alexander Isak

After a somewhat underwhelming debut Premier League season, where he only scored 10 goals, the 24-year-old Swedish forward was on fire last time around, finishing the 2023/24 season with 21 goals in 30 games.

While that was still six goals shy of Haaland's tally last term, Isak is entering the prime of his career, and another good season should lie ahead for him. That being said, he's already well behind Haaland.

Kai Havertz

The former Chelsea man now plays for another London team and he's started this season with Arsenal in good form, scoring twice in the first three games.

The German forward is still just 25 years old, so we might see his best season yet in the Premier League, but it seems unlikely that we can see him catch up with Haaland at this rate.

Heung-Min Son

After netting 17 goals last season for Spurs, which is still quite shy of his best season yet, 2021/2022, when he scored 23 goals, Son started this season with two goals in three games.

The South Korean winger is certainly Tottenham's key player, but even though everything goes through him, we can't see him getting into the race with Haaland for the top scorer in the league.

Premier League top scorer betting trends

Some notable trends and other facts:

• The years spanning 2014-2022 did not see the Golden Boot winner/s also lift the PL title.
• Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane are the only Englishmen to lift this century's Golden Boot.
• Under the 38-game PL format (1995/96-present) the average tally from Golden Boot winners is 25.8 goals.
• During this same period, a tally of 25 goals has been enough for the Golden Boot on 15 of a possible 29 occasions.
• Only five of the 33 prior Premier League seasons have seen multiple winners.
• Liverpool currently have the highest number of Golden Boot awards (seven, awarded to four different players)

Further advice

If available, a double on Man City winning the title and Haaland claiming the Golden Boot would be the obvious choice to make the most of the top scorer betting market.

Such is how Haaland has effectively killed this market’s sense of movement, some bookmakers are offering prices on certain players to ‘win’ the golden boot without Haaland in the equation – the market is best known as ‘Top Goalscorer w/o Erling Haaland’.

As a regular feature in the above table, Salah looks like a smart pick to be the top scorer w/o Haaland. Behind him are Alexander Isak and Ollie Watkins.

Our Premier League top scorer prediction

In addition to these main favourites, a few more interesting names could put their hat in the ring for this award, such as Cole Palmer from Chelsea, who finished in second place behind Haaland last season. Dominic Solanke and Luis Diaz are also seen as potential dark horses in this race.

That being said, it's hard to look past Haaland for the top Premier League scorer once again unless he has to miss a big chunk of games for some unfortunate reason. Yes, the odds are short and it is an uninspiring and boring situation, but that's the reality.

In his two previous seasons with Man City, Haaland averaged 0.95 goals per game, which is ridiculous. Even his ‘sophomore slump’ to 27 goals last season would still see him win the Golden Boot on most occasions, with 2017/18 being the last time before his debut campaign that such a tally would be insufficient to claim the award.

Simply put, the Premier League is Haaland's league, and we would be very surprised if that changes in 2024/25.

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