Premier League top scorer odds and prediction: Can Salah maintain momentum?

With the 2024/25 campaign now gathering pace, the bookies have two clear favourites in the Premier League top scorer odds market.

Here’s our pick to win out in a battle that has typified the first half of this decade, much of which has seen Man City and Liverpool battle it out for supremacy.

Best Premier League top scorer odds

Selections to watch

Mohamed Salah

Despite there being no fixture for Liverpool this week, the Egyptian King, Mohamed Salah, remains firmly atop the pile in the race for the 2024/25 Golden Boot. 27 goals this season and a further 17 assists, it has been genuinely impossible to stop the Reds' talisman so far.

Arne Slot could probably not quite have imagined just how effective his main man was going to be, as he has opened up a six-goal advantage over his closest rivals already.

It was a brace last time out against Southampton that added to the winger's tally for the season. Yet, a goal and an assist in Liverpool's 2-0 victory over Manchester City is arguably Salah's most memorable performance in 2025.

One thing is for certain, bookies are convinced that it will be the Egyptian who claims another Golden Boot at the end of the campaign.

Erling Haaland

Although the gap to leader Salah may be wide, that has not stopped Erling Haaland from racking his own impressive goal tally in 2024/25. The big Norwegian got himself on the scoresheet from the penalty spot against Brighton, as Man City managed to scrape a 2-2 draw against the Seagulls.

In a largely disappointing campaign for the Cityzens, Haaland has still managed to pick up 21 goals. This emphasises just how effective he has been over the last three seasons, as it has actually been Haaland's least prolific campaign in a City shirt.

Bookies certainly favour Salah at this late stage, as with only nine games to go, it would seem highly unlikely that Haaland will be able to claw back his six-goal deficit.

Chris Wood

Despite Nottingham Forest picking up a comfortable 4-2 win over Ipswich Town at the weekend, New Zealand international Chris Wood was unable to add to his total of 18 Premier League goals.

Wood has been in sensational form so far, notching his highest ever tally in a top flight campaign. However, as he remains nine goals away from Salah, bookies are only pricing Wood at 150/1 to win the Golden Boot.

These seem fair odds considering the small number of games that remain.

Our Premier League top scorer prediction

Our pick is, unsurprisingly, Salah. But the odds are lousy at present, so if available, a double on Liverpool winning the title and Salah claiming the Golden Boot would be the obvious choice to make the most of the top scorer betting market, especially as he’s won it before:

As can be deduced from the above table, it would also continue a curious trend into a third successive year, whereby the Golden Boot winner also represents the title-winning side. It would certainly mark a drastic turnaround after the years spanning 2014-2022, none of which saw any Golden Boot winner also lift the title.

With a Salah/Liverpool Golden Boot and title double, the Reds would additionally continue a proud club tradition, as they currently have the highest number of Golden Boot awards (seven, awarded to four different players).

Other notable Premier League top-scorer trends

• Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane are the only Englishmen to lift a Golden Boot this century.
• Under the 38-game PL format (1995/96-present), the average tally from Golden Boot winners is 25.8 goals.
• During this same period, a tally of 25 goals has been enough for the Golden Boot on 15 of a possible 29 occasions.
• Only five of the 33 prior Premier League seasons have seen multiple winners.

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