Premier League top scorer 2025-26: Early value picks for this season’s Golden Boot

With the 2025/26 Premier League season now upon us, there are plenty of forwards in contention for the Golden Boot award. 

Last season, Mohamed Salah claimed his fourth Golden Boot award, which put him next to Thierry Henry for most Premier League Golden Boots in history. The Egypt international is unquestionably targeting a fifth one this season to put him out on his own, but he has plenty of competition.

Let us take a closer look at the Premier League top scorer odds for the 2025/2026 season.

Best Premier League top scorer odds

The odds for next season's top scorer in the Premier League took a while to drop, but they are here now and there are many interesting things to see, although the main favourites are familiar names that we expected to be at the top of the list. With that in mind, we will go through some of the most interesting favourites for the award.

Mohamed Salah

Liverpool claimed the title in the Premier League last season and, for the third time in a row, the new champion also had the Golden Boot winner lead the way. After Haaland's two wins in a row, this time it was Salah who had the most goals in the Premier League, ending the season with 29.

This was his fourth Golden Boot, and that is a record he shares with Thierry Henry, as we mentioned at the top of the article. While Salah did just turn 33, he has proven last season that his motor is still running at the highest level, and there is no reason to expect the Egyptian to struggle for production next season.

Despite what we saw last season, Salah is once again not the main candidate according to the latest Premier League top scorer odds. With 7/1 odds, he is behind Haaland, just like last season.

Despite this though, Salah is already underway for the new Premier League season. Indeed, the winner scored the final goal of the game in Liverpool's 4-2 win against Bournemouth at Anfield on the opening night.

Alexander Isak

With 23 goals this season, Isak has proven that he is a force to be reckoned with and one of the best forwards in the Premier League. Although it was clear for a while that the Swede cannot get ahead of Salah, he will certainly be one of the main candidates for the award going into next season.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether Isak will stay at Newcastle or move to play alongside Salah at Liverpool. The player has reportedly informed Newcastle that he will not ever play for them again, so the chances of him donning black and white stripes this season are slim, to say the least.

If he makes a move to Liverpool in the final weeks of the transfer window, then we can expect serious movement in this market. Isak's odds should tumble, while Salah's odds will likely lengthen amid the possibility of him having to share the burden with the Swede.

Erling Haaland

Heading into last season, Erling Haaland was the clear favourite to win the Golden Boot in the Premier League for the third time in a row, a feat only achieved once before by Alan Shearer.

This seemed like a foregone conclusion early in the season when Haaland had 10 goals after the first five rounds, but both Manchester City and Haaland slowed down after the hot start, and the Norwegian's final tally of 22 goals was only good for third place on the list, seven goals behind Salah.

While there is little doubt that Haaland will once again be in contention for the Golden Boot, it is a bit worrying to see the Norwegian's Premier League goal totals drop season after season – 36, 27, 22.

However, the bookies seem less worried since they have Haaland as the main favourite to win the award at 10/11 odds. It is difficult to argue with his status as the favourite, considering City have signed players this summer that have the creativity to provide him with even more goalscoring opportunities.

Haaland is also the joint-top scorer in the Premier League after its opening weekend, scoring a brace in City's 4-0 win away at Wolves.

Benjamin Sesko

Benjamin Sesko is the new number one striker at Manchester United, and with that comes a whole heap of pressure that the 22-year-old will not have ever experienced before. The Slovenian has all the ingredients to become an elite Premier League striker – he is tall, fast, and powerful – and at such a young age, he has bags of time to improve.

There is a feeling from football experts that the Slovenian is going to explode at some point due to his skillset, and who is to say that will not be this season? He has scored 27 Bundesliga goals across the last two seasons.

At 33/1, he could be worth a few quid. Sesko did not manage to score on his debut in United's 1-0 defeat at home to Arsenal, but to be fair to him, he only came on as a substitute in the second half.

Joao Pedro

While Joao Pedro did not set the world on fire last season with 10 goals in the Premier League with Brighton, he is a young player that is bound to improve and since he moved to Chelsea, he will likely have more chances to score than he did while he played for the Seagulls. In fact, he has given us a glimpse of what we could see from him next season at the Club World Cup, where he scored three goals in three appearances for the Blues, helping them win the title in this prestigious competition.

The odds on Pedro winning the Premier League Golden Boot range 16/1 to 28/1, depending on the bookie, and he is certainly one of the most interesting options at such high odds. The Brazilian striker did not manage to score on his Premier League debut for Chelsea though, as they were held to a 0-0 draw at home to Crystal Palace.

Other potential candidates

• Ollie Watkins
• Chris Wood
• Bryan Mbeumo
• Yoane Wissa
• Jean-Philippe Mateta

Premier League top scorer trends

As we said already, Mohamed Salah won the award for the Premier League's top scorer this season, which was not the first time he's won this award:

As can be deduced from the above table, it also continues a curious trend into the third successive year, whereby the Golden Boot winner also represents the title-winning side. This marks a drastic turnaround after the years spanning 2014-2022, none of which saw any Golden Boot winner also lift the title.

Other notable Premier League top-scorer trends

• Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane are the only Englishmen to lift a Golden Boot this century.
• Under the 38-game Premier League format (1995/96-present), the average tally from Golden Boot winners is 25.9 goals.
• During this same period, a tally of 25 goals has been enough for the Golden Boot on 16 of a possible 30 occasions.
• Only five of the 34 prior Premier League seasons have seen multiple winners.

Our Premier League top scorer prediction

Unless we see some big names move to the Premier League before the summer transfer window shuts, we cannot see anyone other than Salah, Haaland, and Isak getting truly involved in the battle for the 2025/26 Premier League Golden Boot.

Our pick at this time would be Haaland, who is bound to have a bounce-back campaign after his relatively modest goalscoring record this season. The Norway international striker has gotten off to a great start, scoring a brace in his first game in the Premier League in the 4-0 win away at Wolves.

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