With the first two rounds of fixtures now done and dusted, current Premier League top 4 odds provide an early indication of where teams are expected to end up come next May.
Will the league table look much as it did at the end of the previous campaign? Will we see some big changes at the top end of the table? Here’s our early take on the situation.
Best Premier League top 4 odds
Before a ball was kicked this season, the Premier League title frontrunners Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool were all odds-on to finish inside the top four, with last year’s runners-up considered to be the most likely top-four finishers.
At present, the Gunners are available at best odds of 1/10 to make the top four, while the Citizens can be taken at a best price of 1/7, with the Reds available at slightly more user-friendly odds of 2/5.
Five teams fighting for one spot?
After the odds-on trio, we have five teams all in with a decent chance (according to the early betting) of making the top four.
- Chelsea – 2/1
- Tottenham Hotspur – 9/4
- Newcastle United – 3/1
- Manchester United – 7/2
- Aston Villa – 4/1
Now, let’s take a look at the five contenders in a little more detail.
Chelsea
The free-spending Blues struggled to cope with the challenge of facing Manchester City on the opening weekend, going down to a 2-0 defeat. That alone isn’t likely to stop them from getting into the top four, but a lack of consistency probably will.
That said, Chelsea's tendency to be erratic was on display for a positive reason in their second outing of 2024/25, as they demolished Wolves 6-2 at Molineux. However, it's still far too early to back the Blues for a top-four finish with much confidence.
Tottenham Hotspur
Fifth last season under Ange Postecoglou, Spurs failed to come out on top the first time out, drawing 1-1 with Leicester, despite taking the lead and dominating for the entirety of the first hour. But they certainly found their shooting boots last weekend, clobbering Everton 4-0.
Spurs hardly had to shift out of third gear to start their home campaign so emphatically, so it still remains to be seen whether or not the same failings of last season will re-emerge.
For all the flashes of brilliance Spurs occasionally showed in 2023/24, there were times when they lacked defensive strength and a clinical edge. The loss of Harry Kane is still being felt too, with his designated successor Richarlison never hitting any form as a Lilywhite and new boy Dominic Solanke yet to get off the mark.
Newcastle United
Despite having a player dismissed during the first half of their opening fixture, which brought a modest 1-0 success over new boys Southampton, the Magpies still managed to get the job done. And they stayed unbeaten last weekend, but had to do it the hard way, fighting back for a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth.
Recent seasons have shown us how strong Eddie Howe’s men can be, but can they keep their key players fit after enduring a torrid time of things injury-wise last season? It's a valid question, but if they can, then they’ll likely give finishing in the top four as good of a shot as the early betting suggests.
Manchester United
Continuing a solid trend, the Red Devils made a decent start to the new campaign, defeating Fulham at home, though their win was far from clear-cut. And just when any United fan dared to dream that the Red Devils would kick on from there, United fell to a 2-1 loss at Brighton, who are currently thriving under new boss Fabian Hurzeler.
It seems as though United are still far from their imperious best. Certainly, there will be some emphatic wins along the way, but the situation can get ugly fast when they aren't on top of it. A lot will hinge on how the imminent £51m signing of Manuel Ugarte works out in practice, given that United may just be one proverbial jigsaw piece away from becoming a consistent top-four side again.
Aston Villa
Last but certainly not least, Aston Villa may be the boldest call of the five likeliest contenders to make the top four, but don’t write them off.
Under Unai Emery, the Villans made very pleasing progress last season, reaching a continental semi-final and finishing fourth. They’ve lost a couple of players, but having taken on what seem like astute recruits so far, another lofty finish could be incoming.
Who will finish in the Premier League top 4? Here’s our prediction
After the first matchweek, Villa were the surprise pick despite their odds. Given that they finished fourth last season, and are very settled under a manager with plenty of previous success under his belt, it wasn't a pick without justification.
However, a 2-0 loss to Arsenal has provided something of a reality check. With that in mind, we're now making Manchester United our pick to join the expected podium teams in the top four.
Just to re-emphasise, they aren't challenging for the title any time soon, but just one player in the right spot could see their odds tumble, so we think it's a good idea to back United while the current price stands. A win over Liverpool this weekend would, surely, see it shorten drastically.
Freelance sports and sports betting writer with more than a decade of experience writing a variety of betting articles, covering several sports and gambling topics.
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