Premier League relegation odds and prediction: 18/1 on top-flight regulars

Just when it seemed as though Everton would succumb to their fate, David Moyes stepped in and gave them a new lease on life.

Here, we’ll explore how their fortunes have changed for the better, while the Premier League’s most successful side in history have stooped to new depths.

Best Premier League relegation odds

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Promoted trio

It now almost certain that for only the third time in Premier League history, all three teams promoted from the Championship will be making an immediate return to the second tier.

Ipswich Town are winless in 2025, making them the only side in all of England's top four divisions yet to register a victory this calendar year. Goals from Jens Cajuste and George Hirst were unable to prevent the Tractor Boys from falling to a 4-2 defeat to Nottingham Forest this weekend. The game marked the first time that Antony Elanga had scored a brace in his career.

Things are looking no better for Southampton, who are currently on course to break Derby County's miserable record of 11 points from the 2007/08 season. The Rams had one more point than Southampton at this stage, with Saints currently sat on nine points. They lost 2-1 at home to Wolves this weekend, a result that all but ensures the safety of Vitor Pereira's side.

Equally, Leicester City's chances of survival look very slim. They sit level with Ipswich on 17 points, having lost every one of their last five league games under hapless manager Ruud van Nistelrooy. The Foxes play their coach's former club on the 16th March at home, but it would appear unlikely that they will have any opportunity to survive, as they are nine points adrift of Wolves with just 10 games remaining of their season.

Wolves

A win for Wolves against Southampton has now all but ensured their safety. A brace from Jorgen Strand Larsen saw the Old Gold to a 2-1 win at St. Mary's Stadium, and they have now opened up a sizeable gap to the relegation zone.

Bookies have Wolves priced at 18/1 to go down, and we would highly recommend avoiding these odds.

Who will be relegated? Here's our prediction

Southampton look doomed already and Leicester initially seemed more likely than Ipswich to join them in making an instant return to the second tier. But the Foxes have the likes of Jamie Vardy, who boasts far more Premier League pedigree than Ipswich’s best talents. Despite his age, knowing how to go the distance in this league can be as much of an asset as youth and vigour.

With Everton unable to spend big yet, despite having new owners, we fear for them despite the odds against their relegation. While their array of stalemates could well prove crucial later in the season, the fact remains that Everton’s tally of three wins is the joint-lowest the club has recorded after 18 games of a Premier League campaign, alongside a 2022/23 campaign that nearly ended in disaster.

Prediction (20th-18th): Southampton, Ipswich, Everton

Meanwhile, there's still an outside chance of a nuclear scenario unfolding, where Man City are relegated due to a hefty points deduction.

We’re also a bit surprised to see Manchester United enter the top 10, but they still have enough talent to easily avoid the drop, even if they are looking ever more likely to suffer a first-ever bottom-half finish in the Premier League.

Premier League relegation betting trends

Exploring the relegation market isn’t just about backing certain teams for the drop. Recent history can provide useful information about more niche areas, such as who will finish bottom and in what order.

Here, we have the last 30 teams relegated and the order in which they finished. An asterisk indicates teams promoted from the EFL Championship in the previous campaign.

As seen above, newly promoted teams are well-known for being vulnerable to relegation. So much so that it is considered quite a unique feat when there is a Premier League season that sees none of the newcomers immediately drop back into the second tier, though it last happened only in 2022/23.

In stark contrast, all three promoted sides sank straight back down again last term – though it was the first time since 1997/98 that such a phenomenon had occurred.

On another interesting note, three of the last five seasons have also seen a newly-promoted side finish at the bottom of the table. Noting this trend might prove helpful in both the ‘to finish bottom’ and ‘bottom three exact order’ markets associated with relegation.

And for the benefit of anyone delving into points markets, it’s worth mentioning that no bottom-placed team has tallied more than 25 points in any of the previous six PL campaigns.

Premier League relegation FAQ

Who got relegated from the Premier League in 2023/24

Sheffield United finished bottom of the pile with Burnley just above them and Luton Town taking the final relegation place. The three promoted sides all failed to stay up for the first time since 1998.

Have Arsenal ever been relegated?

The Gunners haven't been relegated in the Premier League era but took the drop from the top flight in season 1912-13. It took them two seasons to get back, and they haven't been relegated since.

Have Everton ever been relegated?

Everton are another team who haven't been relegated since the Premier League rebrand, although they have come mighty close in the last few seasons. They have been relegated just twice in their entire history, most recently in 1951.

When were Manchester City relegated from the Premier League?

Manchester City have won the Premier League in six of the last seven seasons, but there was a time when they were battling it out at the other end of the table. They have twice been relegated from the Premier League, in 1996 and 2001, and even fell as low as the third tier in 1998.

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