Premier League relegation odds and prediction: Southampton now just 2/5 for the drop after another defeat

Southampton were third in the Premier League relegation odds before a ball was kicked but they're now 2/5 hot favourites for the drop after a fourth successive defeat.

Losing 3-0 at home to a Manchester United side low on confidence was another blow for Saints and it was also a bad weekend for Everton as they threw away a two-goal lead for the second game in a row.

The Toffees have also yet to pick up a point but they're still below Ipswich Town and Fulham in the best Premier League relegation odds, despite both those sides drawing at the weekend.

Best Premier League relegation odds

Southampton

Southampton made a decent start against Manchester United but a missed penalty seemed to shatter their confidence and the Red Devils were comfortable winners.

Saints are struggling to score and can't keep clean sheets – a deadly combination for a team stuck at the foot of the table. Playing out from the back is costing Southampton but boss Russell Martin has vowed not to change his style.

If Saints don't start picking up points, Martin could find himself among the odds-on favourites to be the next manager sacked in the Premier League.

Taking something from their next league game is essential and fans will be looking for a win as they host fellow promoted side Ipswich.

Leicester

The Foxes were priced 4/9 before a ball was kicked, and that was mainly down to the threat of a points deduction hanging over them, although losing boss Enzo Maresca and star player Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to Chelsea played a role too.

The threat of losing points has now been removed, and Steve Cooper's men added a second point to their tally with a 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace. Having raced into a 2-0 lead, it was definitely a case of two points dropped though and most bookies still make Leicester just 8/13 to return to the Championship.

A win in their next game could change that price though as Cooper's side face relegation rivals Everton. The Toffees have yet to collect a point so Leicester will be looking to move five points clear of them after just five games.

Ipswich Town

Ipswich fans lived the dream last season, with a second successive promotion ending 22 years of absence from England’s elite circle. They have arguably made the ‘best' start of the three promoted sides after picking up draws in their last two games against Fulham and Brighton.

That came after defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City in a daunting start, but Kieran McKenna looks to have recruited well by bringing in the likes of Sammie Szmodics, Kalvin Phillips and Jack Clarke.

Having been odds-on for the drop in the first two weeks, their price went up to evens with some firms after their draw with the Cottagers. Ispwich remain at those odds but if they can win away to rock-bottom Southampton this weekend that price could lengthen.

Everton

The Toffees won another survival fight last season under Sean Dyche, and most bookies thought they would be safe this term, as they started as 5/2 outsiders to go down.

But Everton have started with four successive defeats and the manner of their last two losses is a big concern. Letting 2-0 slip against Bournemouth and Aston Villa doesn't bode well for the rest of the campaign as defensive solidity was the bedrock of last season's successful survival mission.

Everton’s ownership issues persist amidst financial turmoil, and they need some results to give their fans hope. Three points look absolutely essential in their weekend clash with Leicester but another defeat would crank up the pressure on Dyche.

Premier League relegation betting trends

Exploring the relegation market isn’t just about backing certain teams for the drop. Recent history can provide useful information about more niche areas, such as who will finish bottom and in what order.

Here, we have the last 30 teams relegated, and the order in which they finished. Teams that had been promoted from the EFL Championship in the previous campaign are indicated by an asterisk.

As can be seen above, newly-promoted teams are well-known for being vulnerable to relegation. So much so that it is considered quite a unique feat when there is a Premier League season that sees none of the newcomers immediately drop back into the second tier, though it last happened only in 2022/23.

In stark contrast, all three promoted sides sank straight back down again last term – though it was the first time since 1997/98 that such a phenomenon had occurred. Current odds imply that the same could easily happen again in 2024/25, though it has never happened in consecutive Premier League seasons.

On another interesting note, three of the last five seasons have also seen a newly-promoted side finish bottom of the table. Noting this trend might prove helpful in both the ‘to finish bottom’ and ‘bottom three exact order’ markets associated with relegation.

And for the benefit of anyone delving into points markets, it’s worth mentioning that no bottom-placed team has tallied more than 25 points in any of the previous six PL campaigns.

Who will be relegated? Here's our prediction

With Ipswich Town spending big in the transfer window and looking decent in the last two games, it looks like they might have enough to stay up. Southampton look in poor shape and have already lost twice to teams in the bottom half of the table, so they are the most likely to go down.

Despite dodging a points deduction I still fancy Leicester to take the drop, while Everton look worth a punt to join them in the bottom three. Meanwhile, there's also an outside chance of a nuclear scenario unfolding, where Man City are relegated due to a hefty points deduction.

Premier League relegation FAQ

Who got relegated from the Premier League in 2023/24

Sheffield United finished bottom of the pile with Burnley just above them and Luton Town taking the final relegation place. The three promoted sides all failed to stay up for the first time since 1998.

Have Arsenal ever been relegated?

The Gunners haven't been relegated in the Premier League era but they did take the drop from the top flight in season 1912-13. It took them two seasons to get back and they haven't been relegated since.

Have Everton ever been relegated?

Everton are another team who haven't been relegated since the Premier League rebrand, although they have come mighty close in the last few seasons. They have been relegated just twice in their entire history, the most recent coming in 1951.

When were Manchester City relegated from the Premier League?

Manchester City have won the Premier League in six of the last seven seasons but there was a time when they were battling it out at the other end of the table. They have twice been relegated from the Premier League, in 1996 and 2001, and even fell as low as the third tier in 1998.

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