Premier League relegation odds and prediction: Everton offer tempting value

Just when it seemed as though Wolves would succumb to their fate, Vitor Pereira stepped in and gave them a new lease of life.

Here, we’ll explore how their fortunes have changed for the better, while the Premier League’s most successful side in history have stooped to new depths.

Best Premier League relegation odds

Selections to watch

Promoted trio

The bookies still think all three promoted sides will swiftly return to the Championship. Southampton are now practical certainties at 1/25 to go down. A tally of six points at the halfway mark means they are on course for a truly feeble 12 points – just one more than the abysmal Derby County team of 2007/08.

Ivan Juric has a truly monumental task on his hands, and an escape from this scenario would surely be heralded as one of the greatest ever. Things look no better for Ipswich or Leicester, however, as they are just 1/3 in places to make an instant return to the second tier.

Never in more than three decades of Premier League history has there been successive seasons where all three promoted sides instantly returned to the second tier. But there’s a first time for everything – especially on the evidence of Leicester’s 3-0 drubbing against Wolves and their inability to make the most of an ailing Man City side when going down 2-0 in their final outing of 2024.

Meanwhile, Ipswich were on the end of a diabolical 4-0 battering from Newcastle in their last home game, and while those supporting Kieran McKenna are sticking by him no matter what, the Tractor Boys’ stamina to last out in a top-flight campaign remains firmly under question. Three wins at this stage of the season is very bad news indeed for any newcomer with genuine survival aspirations.

Wolves

A terrible 3-0 defeat against Nottingham Forest demonstrated that Wolves still have a lot of work to do if they want to avoid the drop this season. Victories against fellow strugglers Leicester and Manchester United had seen them out of the bottom three, but Vitor Pereira's side were no match for the might of Forest, who kept up their ambitions of achieving a top-four spot.

However, Wolves fans will be delighted to hear that star man Matheus Cunha is prepared to put pen to paper on a new deal with the club. 10 goals already this season, he has undoubtedly been their standout performer during the 2024/25 campaign, and they would have probably already been resigned to the drop had it not been for the skilful Brazilian.

A tough run of fixtures now away Wolves, with Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool and Newcastle all contained within the club's next five league matches. It would be tough for anyone to pick a harder run, and thus Pereira is going to have his work cut out during January.

Currently priced at 9/4, it is evident that the bookies still see Wolves as relegation candidates. They could provide good value at the current valuation if Ipswich continue their good form and jump out of the drop zone.

Everton

Everton have been an absolute shambles going forward recently, finding themselves completely incapable of putting the ball in the net. If we are to discount their freak result against Wolves, then the Toffees have only managed one goal in their last nine games, a woeful record.

Although solid at the back, an inability to score goals will always cause trouble. Losses to Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest have proven this recently, as both times Sean Dyche's men failed to convert, resulting in defeat.

Now only one point above the drop zone, things are beginning to look rather precarious for the Merseyside outfit, and their form will need to improve fast if they are to stay away from danger.

At 11/4, they could be a good outside pick to go down to the Championship.

Who will be relegated? Here's our prediction

Southampton look doomed already and Leicester initially seemed more likely than Ipswich to join them in making an instant return to the second tier. But the Foxes have the likes of Jamie Vardy, who boast far more Premier League pedigree than Ipswich’s best talents. Despite his age, knowing how to go the distance in this league can be as much of an asset as youth and vigour.

With Everton unable to spend big yet, despite having new owners, we fear for them despite the odds against their relegation. While their array of stalemates could well prove crucial later in the season, the fact remains that Everton’s tally of three wins is the joint-lowest the club has recorded after 18 games of a Premier League campaign, alongside a 2022/23 campaign that nearly ended in disaster.

Prediction (20th-18th): Southampton, Ipswich, Everton

Meanwhile, there's still an outside chance of a nuclear scenario unfolding, where Man City are relegated due to a hefty points deduction.

We’re also a bit surprised to see Manchester United enter the top-10, but they still have enough talent to easily avoid the drop, even if they are looking ever more likely to suffer a first-ever bottom half finish in the Premier League.

Premier League relegation betting trends

Exploring the relegation market isn’t just about backing certain teams for the drop. Recent history can provide useful information about more niche areas, such as who will finish bottom and in what order.

Here, we have the last 30 teams relegated, and the order in which they finished. An asterisk indicates teams promoted from the EFL Championship in the previous campaign.

As seen above, newly promoted teams are well-known for being vulnerable to relegation. So much so that it is considered quite a unique feat when there is a Premier League season that sees none of the newcomers immediately drop back into the second tier, though it last happened only in 2022/23.

In stark contrast, all three promoted sides sank straight back down again last term – though it was the first time since 1997/98 that such a phenomenon had occurred.

On another interesting note, three of the last five seasons have also seen a newly-promoted side finish bottom of the table. Noting this trend might prove helpful in both the ‘to finish bottom’ and ‘bottom three exact order’ markets associated with relegation.

And for the benefit of anyone delving into points markets, it’s worth mentioning that no bottom-placed team has tallied more than 25 points in any of the previous six PL campaigns.

Premier League relegation FAQ

Who got relegated from the Premier League in 2023/24

Sheffield United finished bottom of the pile with Burnley just above them and Luton Town taking the final relegation place. The three promoted sides all failed to stay up for the first time since 1998.

Have Arsenal ever been relegated?

The Gunners haven't been relegated in the Premier League era but they did take the drop from the top flight in season 1912-13. It took them two seasons to get back and they haven't been relegated since.

Have Everton ever been relegated?

Everton are another team who haven't been relegated since the Premier League rebrand, although they have come mighty close in the last few seasons. They have been relegated just twice in their entire history, most recently in 1951.

When were Manchester City relegated from the Premier League?

Manchester City have won the Premier League in six of the last seven seasons but there was a time when they were battling it out at the other end of the table. They have twice been relegated from the Premier League, in 1996 and 2001, and even fell as low as the third tier in 1998.

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