Premier League relegation odds and prediction: Promoted trio seemingly doomed

With the curtain closed on the 2024/2025 Premier League season, we know that Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester will go back to the Championship just one year after being promoted to the top flight.

In this article, we will take a closer look at the Premier League relegation odds for the 2025/2026 season and check out some of the main candidates for relegation in more detail.

Best Premier League relegation odds

Selections to watch

Promoted trio

After we've witnessed the promoted trio get relegated for the second time in a row and for the fourth time in Premier League history, it's clear why the newcomers from the Championship are right away the main candidates to go down again.

Leeds and Burnley have finished the last season in the Championship tied at 100 points each, 10 points ahead of third-placed Sheffield United, who in turn failed to secure promotion after losing the playoff final to Sunderland, who finished the regular season with just 76 points.

So, Sunderland are seen as the top candidate to get right back to the Championship by the bookies, with Leeds and Burnley close behind. Of course, things might change a bit after the summer transfer window.

Wolves

Although Wolverhampton weren't the first team above the relegation zone, with that honour going to Tottenham, they were just one spot above them and are the main candidate for relegation outside of the three promoted sides.

Wolves have struggled for a while this season and spent some time in the relegation zone, but once they sacked Gary O'Neil and brought in Vitor Pereira to replace him, their fortunes changed and they've managed to create enough of a separation from the relegated teams that they weren't in real danger in the final stretch of the season.

Fulham

It might be a surprise to see Fulham as one of the top five candidates for relegation after the season they've had, but the Premier League is very competitive and no one expects teams like Man Utd and Tottenham to once again be down in the gutters.

So, despite finishing 11th this season, Fulham are seen by the bookies as one of the teams that will have to battle to stay up, which isn't too surprising considering how often Fulham have been relegated from the Premier League in the last decade.

Who will be relegated? Here's our prediction

All three promoted teams will have to climb an uphill battle against the more established teams from the Premier League, especially since all three promoted sides have been relegated twice in a row, which could be the start of a new trend.

However, we would go for more value for money and back one of the less obvious teams to be relegated. For example, Crystal Palace at 11/2 odds sounds very tempting.

Yes, Palace finished this season in 12th and they even managed to pull off an improbable feat of winning the FA Cup, but this might be their downfall next season since they'll now also compete in the Europa League and this could stretch them too thin. After all, they are not as deep as most of the teams that regularly play in Europe, so we wouldn't be surprised to see Crystal Palace struggle on multiple fronts.

Premier League relegation betting trends

Exploring the relegation market isn’t just about backing certain teams for the drop. Recent history can provide useful information about more niche areas, such as who will finish bottom and in what order.

Here, we have the last 30 teams relegated and the order in which they finished. An asterisk indicates teams promoted from the EFL Championship in the previous campaign.

As seen above, newly promoted teams are well-known for being vulnerable to relegation. So much so that it is considered quite a unique feat when there is a Premier League season that sees none of the newcomers immediately drop back into the second tier, though it last happened only in 2022/23.

In stark contrast, all three promoted sides sank straight back down again twice in a row. While this might sound like something that happens often, before the previous two seasons it hasn't really happened since 1997/1998.

On another interesting note, four of the last six seasons have also seen a newly promoted side finish at the bottom of the table. Noting this trend might prove helpful in both the ‘to finish bottom’ and ‘bottom three exact order’ markets associated with relegation.

And for the benefit of anyone delving into points markets, it’s worth mentioning that no bottom-placed team has tallied more than 25 points in any of the previous seven PL campaigns.

Premier League relegation FAQ

Who got relegated from the Premier League in the 2024/25 season?

Southampton finished bottom of the pile with Ipswich Town just above them and Leicester City taking the final relegation place. The three promoted sides all failed to stay up for the second time in a row.

Have Arsenal ever been relegated?

The Gunners haven't been relegated in the Premier League era but took the drop from the top flight in season 1912-13. It took them two seasons to get back, and they haven't been relegated since.

Have Everton ever been relegated?

Everton are another team who haven't been relegated since the Premier League rebrand, although they have come mighty close in the last few seasons. They have been relegated just twice in their entire history, most recently in 1951.

When were Manchester City relegated from the Premier League?

Manchester City have won the Premier League in six of the last eight seasons, but there was a time when they were battling it out at the other end of the table. They have twice been relegated from the Premier League, in 1996 and 2001, and even fell as low as the third tier in 1998.

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