Last week proved a frustrating one on the betting front, with just 1 of our 3 selections landing. Eastleigh saw two goals disallowed which dented our over 2.5 goals bet, while Carlisle let a 3-1 lead slip in the final 11 minutes to draw 3-3. Fortunately, York did the business for us with a win and over 1.5 goals scored in their match, ensuring we did not leave empty handed.
This week’s National League slate offers another opportunity to put things right, with several fixtures standing out as strong value plays. Forest Green’s attacking numbers suggest they should create plenty of chances against Sutton, Southend’s meeting with York looks set up for another goal-heavy contest, and Boston’s clash with Halifax could provide the perfect platform for the newly-promoted side to continue their encouraging start.
We will take a closer look at each game, combining early-season trends with last year’s underlying data to highlight why these three fixtures are worth backing.
Boston Utd vs Halifax Town
Boston's start to this this season has been a wild one: a 3-2 win over Aldershot where they massively overperformed their xG (0.84) but still demonstrated an attacking sharpness that will make them entertaining to follow. The flip side is defensive fragility, as conceding twice from a modest Aldershot side highlights. Already, they look like a team that will be involved in plenty of high-scoring games.
Halifax, meanwhile, have endured a difficult start. They have lost both games, conceding five goals, and their xGA (0.92 per game) suggests the opposition have not needed much to punish them. That defensive vulnerability was also present last season, when they shipped 46 goals in 46 matches. Their away form was particularly concerning, conceding in 18 of their 23 fixtures.
Boston’s home form last season was excellent, with 28 goals scored in 23 games only failing to score on six occasions, and that attacking intent already appears to have carried on this season. Their back line, though, looks less secure against faster, stronger opposition, and Halifax for their strong season last year often find a way onto the scoresheet, only failing to score in six away days last term.
With Boston pushing forward in numbers and Halifax needing a response after back-to-back defeats, this fixture feels primed for goals. Boston have already shown their attack can take chances at a clinical rate, while Halifax’s defensive record this term makes them likely to concede multiple times. A repeat of Boston’s opening-day score line would not be a surprise.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 23/20 with Bet365
Southend Utd vs York City
Two of the early front-runners collide here, and the data points strongly towards goals. Southend have been flawless so far, winning both games 2-0 and 3-0. They have created 1.73 xG per match and conceded only 0.72 xGA, showing both attacking depth and defensive stability. However, while they have not conceded yet, their opponents have missed chances and York will pose a much sterner test.
York arrive unbeaten, scoring four goals across two games while producing 1.77 xG per match. They have looked inventive and clinical in the final third, and their record last season also points towards entertainment: 26 of their 46 league games saw three or more goals, with their away fixtures particularly open.
Southend’s promotion challenge last season was built on defensive strength, but their matches at Roots Hall often carried goals when facing attack-minded sides. They averaged 2.47 total goals per home game, with their biggest struggles coming against high-pressing opposition — something York have leaned into under Adam Hinshelwood.
York’s defensive metrics (0.90 xGA per game) are solid, but away from home last season they conceded 22 times in 23 games. Southend, by contrast, scored 33 goals at home in 2024/25, and their new season suggests they are picking up where they left off.
With both teams creating comfortably above 1.7 xG per game so far and carrying attacking threats all over the pitch, this clash looks set up for goals at both ends. A tight contest is possible, but the data strongly leans towards over 2.5 landing.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 17/20 with Bet365
Forest Green vs Sutton Utd
Forest Green have started the 2025/26 National League campaign with the strongest underlying numbers in the division. Across their opening two matches, they have generated 2.52 xG per game while conceding just 0.69, producing a +1.83 xGD that sets them apart statistically. They have scored four times this season which suggest they are creating plenty of chances and goals will continue.
At home last season at this level, Forest Green averaged 1.65 goals per game as they just missed out on promotion back to the EFL. This season with Robbie Savage in charge they will look to build on last season, especially at home. Their opening two games already highlight their ability to carve out high-quality chances, and a sharper finishing edge should soon follow.
Sutton, meanwhile, have looked limited going forward and vulnerable at the back. They have conceded twice already from just two matches, but more importantly, their xGA sits at 1.22 per game, which is modest but concerning against a side that thrives on front-foot football. Away from home last year, Sutton lost eight of 23 matches and conceded 34 times, keeping just four clean sheets as they often struggling to contain sides with pace and movement.
With Forest Green pushing some of the best attacking numbers in the league and Sutton carrying last season’s defensive fragility into the new campaign, backing Forest Green to score at least twice feels a confident angle. The stats back it up, and if finishing variance swings their way, this could cash comfortably.
Best Bet: Forest Green over 1.5 goals at 17/20 with 888 Sport
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