The opening weeks of the National League season have already offered plenty of drama, and this Bank Holidays fixture list looks set to provide more opportunities in the betting markets. Following the recent work on the model, we bagged two winners from three bets on Saturday, and the aim is to build on that momentum with another set of well-backed selections.
Three matches in particular stand out where the numbers and performances so far point towards clear angles of value. At the Recreation Ground, Aldershot take on Morecambe in what promises to be an entertaining clash, with both sides showing tendencies that suggest goals are likely. Woking welcome York City in a meeting of two clubs heading in opposite directions, with York looking to extend their unbeaten start against a side rooted to the foot of the table.
Meanwhile, league leaders Forest Green are back at home and aiming to continue their flying start, with Eastleigh the visitors tasked with trying to keep out one of the division’s most dangerous attacks. Each of these contests has its own profile, but all three bring strong betting angles supported by early-season data on goals, clean sheets, and scoring trends.
Aldershot vs Morecambe
Aldershot against Morecambe has all the ingredients of a high-scoring game and over 2.5 goals looks a strong angle.
Aldershot’s season so far has been defined by goals at both ends. All four of their fixtures have gone over 2.5, with 21 goals scored in total, an average of 5.25 per match. They have found the net 11 times themselves, at a rate of 2.75 per game, but their defensive issues are clear, having conceded 10 at 2.5 per match. They are yet to keep a clean sheet, and their style has left them exposed repeatedly.
Morecambe arrive with plenty of attacking intent of their own. Their dramatic late 2-1 victory over Altrincham was full of energy and chances, with new signings quickly making an impact. Despite being a side still coming together after their summer suspension, they showed they could exploit space and convert in key moments, and the likes of Daniel Ogwuru and Ben Tollitt add cutting edge.
With Aldershot’s open approach and Morecambe’s new-found attacking quality, the game should be played at a good tempo with opportunities at both ends. Aldershot’s numbers make overs the obvious play, and with Morecambe eager to build on their emotional return, over 2.5 goals looks highly likely.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Unibet
Woking vs York City
York City look well placed to claim three points at Woking, and combining that with over 1.5 goals makes for a strong betting angle.
Woking have endured a dreadful start, losing all four of their matches and sitting bottom of the table. They have conceded 10 goals already at a rate of 2.5 per game and are still searching for their first clean sheet. Their defence has been cut open too easily and they have failed to score in two of those fixtures, underlining how fragile they look at both ends of the pitch. Even when Woking do get on the scoresheet, they lack the solidity to protect themselves, with three of their four matches already finishing with over 2.5 goals.
York, by contrast, are unbeaten in their opening three games. They have conceded just twice, with two clean sheets already on the board, and look organised and difficult to break down. They also carry enough attacking threat, scoring in two of three matches, including a 2-0 win at Truro. Their solidity at the back paired with Woking’s poor defensive record makes an away win likely.
Over 1.5 goals adds further security, as Woking’s leaky defence has ensured no shortage of goals in their matches. York City to win and over 1.5 goals looks a sensible selection.
- Best Bet: York City to win & over 1.5 goals at 5/6 with BetVictor
Forest Green Rovers vs Eastleigh
Forest Green have started the season in impressive fashion and look well equipped to score at least two goals when they host Eastleigh. Their attacking record speaks for itself: 10 goals scored in their opening four matches, an average of 2.5 per game. They have found the net at least twice in every outing so far, and at home they have looked especially sharp, putting four past Sutton and two past Yeovil without reply. With a wealth of attacking options and a clear confidence in the final third, they have quickly established themselves as one of the most potent sides in the division.
Eastleigh, by contrast, have struggled for consistency. They have won two and lost two of their opening fixtures, but their defensive numbers are a concern. They have conceded in three of their four matches and have already failed to keep control against mid-table opponents such as Brackley and Gateshead. Their overall goals against average sits at 1.25 per game, and they have just one clean sheet to their name.
Forest Green’s tempo and attacking depth will test an Eastleigh backline that has looked far from watertight. With players capable of scoring from both open play and set-pieces, and the added advantage of home support, Forest Green should have enough quality to find at least two goals.
- Best Bet: Forest Green over 1.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365
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