After a strong run last weekend, attention now turns to another busy National League slate where the data points us toward three standout betting opportunities.
Aldershot’s clash with Hartlepool has the makings of a goal-heavy contest, with both sides showing the kind of attacking and defensive trends that usually produce entertainment. Forest Green’s trip to Woking looks a far more one-sided affair, with the visitors carrying some of the best underlying numbers in the division against a side struggling badly at both ends of the pitch. Then there is Brackley against Sutton, where recent xPTS rankings underline the gulf between a solid home side and a team with one of the league’s weakest away records.
Together, these fixtures highlight different angles with goals, form strength, and home superiority that create a compelling betting card for the weekend.
Aldershot vs Hartlepool Utd
Aldershot against Hartlepool shapes up as one of the more intriguing games of the weekend, especially when it comes to goals. The market has pitched the line at 2.5, and there are plenty of reasons to expect that barrier will be cleared.
Starting with Hartlepool, their biggest issue this season has been putting the ball in the net. They rank among the lowest in the league for xG, averaging under 1 per game, and in their last four outings their xG has sat at just 0.92. In the same stretch they have collected only 4.6 xPTS, leaving them in the bottom half of this ranking. Their lack of cutting edge has been well-documented, and the data supports the view that they struggle to create clear chances consistently.
However, Aldershot’s weaknesses open the door for Hartlepool to contribute to a high-scoring contest. Defensively, Aldershot allow far too much. They concede 1.6 xG per game on average, with their last four matches producing 1.66 xGA. Only a handful of sides in the division have a worse defensive record. They also give up a high volume of shots, including 8 per game inside their own box, which keeps opponents in the contest and explains why they rarely keep clean sheets.
At the other end, Aldershot are far stronger. They average over 2 xG at home and have posted 2.07 across their last four matches, a top-six attacking figure. They rank highly for shots on target, big chances, and touches in the opposition box, suggesting they will cause Hartlepool serious problems defensively.
Put simply, Aldershot’s attacking numbers combined with their defensive frailties make this the perfect recipe for goals. Hartlepool’s finishing might be unreliable, but chances will come, and over 2.5 goals looks the smart play.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score at 4/5 with Bet365
Woking vs Forest Green
Forest Green travel to Woking with plenty of reasons to be confident. The visitors have been one of the standout performers in the National League this season, and their numbers over the last four games are exceptional. They have collected 10.4 xPTS in that period, the highest in the division, while Woking have managed only 2.7 xPTS, which ranks them 22nd. That gap in recent performance is huge and strongly favours Forest Green.
The data highlights just how dominant Forest Green have been. In those four matches, they have averaged over 2.1 xG per game while conceding just 0.4, producing an outstanding xG ratio above 80%. They have also created more big chances and touches in the box than anyone else, while keeping opponents to minimal attacking opportunities. Their defensive control is reflected in conceding just 2.5 shots inside the box per game across that stretch, showing how well they limit danger.
Woking’s recent numbers tell the opposite story. They have been leaking over 2.0 xGA per game while creating less than one at the other end. That imbalance has led to heavy defeats, with their last four games returning no wins, two clean sheets conceded, and some of the weakest shot and chance creation data in the league.
Forest Green’s balance between attack and defence looks too strong for a Woking side struggling for confidence and form. With the best recent xPTS tally in the league against one of the lowest, the visitors are rightly favourites. If they maintain their current levels of performance, Forest Green should have too much quality and secure another win.
- Best Bet: Forest Green at 4/5 with Betfred
Brackley Town vs Sutton
Brackley look a strong bet to collect three points when they host Sutton. The numbers over the last four games underline just how big the gap is between the two sides. Brackley have picked up 7.3 xPTS in that period, ranking them inside the top six in the National League, while Sutton have managed only 3.7 xPTS, which leaves them down in the bottom three. That gulf in underlying performance has been consistent across the season and shows no signs of closing.
At home, Brackley’s data is impressive. They average around 1.6 xG for and less than 1.0 xGA, producing a strong xG ratio that has translated into clean sheets and control of matches. Their style is built on defensive stability, limiting shots in the box and keeping opponents at arm’s length.
Sutton’s away numbers are among the worst in the division. They concede more than two xG per game on their travels while generating less than one in attack. That imbalance leaves them constantly under pressure, and results have followed the same pattern. They rank near the bottom for shots and touches in the opposition box, while allowing some of the highest totals against.
Brackley’s controlled approach might not deliver huge score lines, but it is perfectly suited to breaking down weak travellers. Sutton’s defensive issues and lack of creativity mean that even a single Brackley goal could be decisive. With the home side posting top-six underlying numbers recently and Sutton rooted near the foot of the form table, everything points toward a Brackley victory.
- Best Bet: Brackley win at 10/11 with William Hill
Further Reading
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