Welcome back to the 2024/25 season of the NFL, which culminates in New Orleans in February. It seems unlikely we'll have another home team in the Super Bowl, but what a party it will be for whichever teams make it to the finale!
The reigning champion Chiefs won an exciting match on Thursday night, highlighting the small margins between a win and a possible loss as Isaiah Likely failed to keep his big toe in bounds.
On the NFC side, we were treated to a thriller in Brazil as the Eagles overcame the Packers. Jordan Love got injured at the end of the game. Fortunately, it's not season-ending, as the Packers are very highly thought of this season. Let's hope the Sunday slate brings entertainment to the games we've seen so far!
I will be back on here every week of the season, giving you my favourite Spread, Total, Player Prop, and TD scorer of the weekend. I usually mix in a long shot as well to make things a little more interesting.
Best Spread
LA Rams +4.5 @ Detroit Lions (Sunday Night Football)
It's always tough picking a Week 1 spread because the lines have been bet all summer by the “sharps”, so they are usually right around where you'd expect, and that's a similar situation here as well. There are some very tough picks to make, so take it easy on this market this week.
However, I do quite like this line, which has actually ticked up even more on the Rams' side in the last couple of days after being 3.5 on Thursday evening.
Of course, I like the Lions and respect them for what they did last season. They've got a great offensive line protecting a good QB, and with Montgomery and Gibbs, a great 1-2 punch at RB. Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the most reliable wide receivers in the game, but I am incredibly high on the Rams this season. They lost Aaron Donald over the summer, which could be a big loss on defence, but offensively, they look as strong as ever, and Matthew Stafford will be licking his lips at a chance to get another win inside Ford Field.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua are one of the best duos in the league (I actually like Kupp to be the main man once more this year). Kyren Williams has some backup with Blake Corum coming in at RB, and they have one of the best coaches in the league as well, one I like to out-smart his opponent and take an opening-day outright win.
Best Total
Jaguars @ Dolphins o49 points
The Lions and Rams game was under consideration as I don't rate either defence highly, and they're both offence-heavy, but I don't want all my eggs in one basket in week one, so I've plumped for the battle for Florida.
It is going to be warm and humid in Miami, as it is at the start of every season, but this is another Floridian team that should be used to the heat, which will negate the usual advantage that Miami usually has early in the season.
My main reason for this one, though, is the fact that Miami beats up on mediocre teams and while it may hurt fans of the ‘London' Jaguars, they're not a great team: the defence is average, the offence is capable with Trevor Lawrence, but I doubt they will be at the sharp end of things come the end of the season.
I do think the Jaguars will be able to put up 20 points, though, as I don't rate the Miami defence very highly. Still, we saw last season that this explosive Miami offence is capable of putting up 40+ by themselves in any game, given the speed that they've got all over from Hill, Waddle, and Achane.
I'm sure it was tough for Sky to overlook two of the best-supported teams in the UK, but hopefully, they'll still put on a show.
Best TD Scorer
Raheem Mostert – 11/10 (BetVictor, Evens or above everywhere else)
My favourite part of any weekend is picking out some value on TD scorers across the league, and unlike the Spread and Total, there is some value in this market if you've been keeping up with the news through the off-season.
My favourite of the week is Raheem Mostert for the Dolphins – He scored 20+ TDs last year, and while he may take a step back this year, he'll still get goal-line chances, and if it's as high-scoring as I think it makes sense, I'd be taking him to find the endzone.
Other possibilities at slightly higher prices
Dawson Knox – 4/1 (Bet365)
The Bills have lost a bit of talent on offence and should play a lot of 2TE sets with Knox and Kincaid; Knox was still frequently used in the Redzone last season.
Charlie Jones (16/1 Skybet)
A very long shot here. The Bengals have made a complete mess with their WRs by not paying contracts, and now Tee Higgins (“hamstring”) and Ja'Marr Chase (“illness”) look like they may be both missing out; they don't trust their rookie WR so it could be Andrei Iosivas, Charlie Jones and Trenton Irwin as starting WRs for them. With Jones also on kick returns, I'll have a small punt on him at 16/1 against a team that many think will be the worst in the league this year.
Trey Tucker 8/1 (PaddyPower)
It's a final odd because of the odds. The Raiders aren't going to be good this year but they could be fun with Gardner Minshew starting as QB. Tucker might only get a few receptions but he's shown he can take it to the house from anywhere, so why the heck not.
Best Player Prop
Chase Brown o14.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Most)
With the tumult in the Cincinnati pass-catching room, it should make sense for them to rely on players they consider more reliable, so I'm going for Chase Brown to top his receiving line. I'm unsure whether it will be him or the newly recruited Zack Moss as the lead back.
My instinct is that Moss is the lead and Brown is second, a 70/30 or so split, but the coaching group always praises Brown. He is good on the ground and through the air with breakaway speed if he gets open. I think at least one of Higgins or Chase will miss the game, so there will be opportunities for pass-catchers, and Brown could be the one this week.
I do like Aaron Jones this week for the Vikings, but I'm not sure how much they'll use Ty Chandler as the incumbent RB there. Rookie TE Ja'Tavion Sanders is at 18.5 rec. yards for the Panthers. They ruled out their two more experienced TEs this week, so we know he'll have a big role, but I just can't trust Bryce Young enough to be betting on this one.
That's the Week 1 preview in the books! There should be some fun games this weekend. Bet safely with it being a tough one though!
Adam (@TouchdownTips)
