After 272 games of the regular season we've made it to the NFL playoffs and the final run to the Super Bowl in New Orleans on 9 February.
There are just 13 games left of the 2024/25 NFL season as the cream of the crop looks to fight it for the Lombardi trophy in a month's time, starting here in Wildcard Weekend.
For the first time in 12 years, each of the teams in the play-offs have at least 10 wins during the regular season, so we should have some competitive and entertaining matches this post-season.
The betting has the Lions as 3/1 favourites and fellow one seeds, the “three-peat” seeking Chiefs just behind them at 7/2. The Ravens and Bills are next up at 11/2 and 6/1, respectively; then we've got four of the NFC teams in a row, with the Eagles, Vikings, Packers and Rams running from 13/2 to 33/1.
If things go to plan we should be looking at Chiefs vs Chargers/Texans and Bills vs Ravens next weekend I'll in the AFC, the latter would be a great game!
The NFC looks likely to be the Lions v Commanders or Bucs and Eagles against Vikings. For me, the value is probably in the Bills at this moment at 6/1.
The Texans have made it through after an elite defensive performance handed Justin Herbert another playoff loss.
I usually do a Best Spread, Total, TD and Player Prop, but with only three games to cover, I think there are better choices in games, so I'll have a quick summary of each and my best picks.
Denver Broncos +9.5 @ Buffalo Bills: 47.5
The Denver Broncos made it to the playoffs thanks to their divisional rival resting all their players last week, leading to a 38-0 win. It's been a fantastic year for rookie Bo Nix as he's made Courtland Sutton a star and had Marvin Mims come on recently, they've been the keys to the offense but it's been a team performance with the Broncos defense showing up as one of the best this year.
The Bills secured the #2 seed before last weekend, so they got to rest their stars as they lost to the Patriots. Josh Allen comes into this one as the second-team all-pro, so he'll be motivated to prove that he should have been the first-teamer there. He's notched up the second-best QBR in the league, has 28 passing TDs (to a league record 13 different players), and 12 rushing TDs on the season. James Cook leads the league-leading 16 rushing TDs this season as they gave him red zone work instead of Allen rushing.
The Bills ability to move the ball around in the passing game has been vital for them and means they can attack in a variety of ways without relying on one player. Patrick Surtain might be on Amari Cooper, OK, they'll throw to Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid or one of the three running backs they tend to use during the game, it's a very tough offense to stop.
The Broncos have one of the highest blitz rates in the league, which generally means they'll get pressure on the QB, but Josh Allen is THE BEST in the league at playing against the blitz due to his strength and mobility, and we know that he scrambles and rushes more in big games.
I think the Bills win this one comfortably, with a lean to the over in terms of the total, but best pick in this one is Josh Allen longest rush o13.5 yards. I do like Keon Coleman to score as well, I think they'll target Riley Moss as the Bengals did a fortnight and either he or Kincaid will use their size to beat the smaller cornerback.
Green Bay Packers +5.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 45.5
The Green Bay Packers finished the season with an agonising last-second loss to the Chicago Bears last week which actually turned out to be irrelevant as the Commanders also won to secure the sixth seed. They finished third in their division but had more wins than the NFC West and South winners, so may feel a little hard done by to be facing the Eagles.
With the knock to Love and the injury to Watson I think they'll be leaning into the run game even more than they have done this season, and they've been relying on Josh Jacobs a lot this year, with over 300 carries and 14 rushing TDs as well as his first ever receiving score this season, they have also given Emmanuel Wilson a few extra carries which could be a good angle here as well, I like o2.5 rush attempts for him.
The Packers do spread the ball around well, though, so the loss of Watson won't be fatal. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs will have to be the main guys but Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath will all get a reception or two, and then they've got Tucker Krady and Luke Musgrave at tight end adding a little more size on offence. This is all supported by a ball-hawking defence, which has come up big in spots this season.
The Eagles were able to rest their starters last weekend with Jalen Hurts still in concussion protocol, but they should all be good to go here which means Hurts gets his favourite receivers playing in Smith and AJ Brown, the offense is very different with them in the line-up.
On the ground, the combination of Hurts and Saquon Barkley has been nearly unstoppable, with Saquon topping 2,000 yards from 345 carries this year, and he finished the year with 15 combined TDs, a number which would have been higher if anyone could stop the “brotherly shove” which gave Hurts 14 himself.
I think the Eagles win and cover, and probably looking under on the total. Best Pick: Emmanuel Wilson o9.5 rushing yards – I do like Jacobs o16.5 rush attempts as well, but if the game gets away from them, which it could, they may abandon the run.
Washington Commanders +3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 49.5
The Commanders wrapped up the sixth seed with a late win against the Cowboys last weekend to give them a trip to the sunshine to face Tampa, something that not a lot of people saw coming at the start of the season. Jayden Daniels will be the offensive rookie of the year despite 1,000-yard receiving seasons from a few of the wide receivers, and it's fully deserved as he's led this team to the promised land for the first time since 2020, where they coincidentally lost to this same team.
In fact, the last playoff game they won was in 2005 against… you guessed it, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Daniels exploded onto the scene this year and has developed his passing game throughout the season after starting with a lot of rushing to gain yards. He's formed a good connection with Zach Ertz at TE and Terry McLaurin in the passing game, who finished the year with 13 receiving scores, good for second in the league behind Ja'marr Chase. They were looking for someone else in the passing game to close out the season and got it with Olamide Zaccheus who finished with 200 yards and three TDs in their final three games of the season.
They needed the passing game to step up as the run game, led by Brian Robinson, ground to a halt, averaging just three yards per carry in the final three games of the season after a good season in general. They did welcome back Austin Ekeler, though, and he will be a key asset for them in this one against a Buccs defence which struggles against pass-catching backs.
The Buccaneers won last week to secure the NFC South and a playoff spot for the fourth year in a row as Baker Mayfield got things down on the ground and through the air in their comeback against the Saints. Baker finished third in yards and second in TD throws on the season to cap off a nice year for him, and he managed to get Mike Evans to his 12th consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season to start his career at the end of the game last weekend, a remarkable feat.
This week I think it will be Jalen McMillan who leads the team in receiving yards though as the rookie has stepped up at the end of the season with seven TDs in his final five games and at least 51 yards in each of those games.
His role should be further accentuated by the fact that Mike Evans goes up against his enemy in Marshon Lattimore. The former Saints and Evans have a violent relationship, and in 13 games against each other, Evans has been held to ZERO catches in five. In fact, he's only had 305 yards in total in those games, with half of those coming in one game. This all lends itself to more for the WR2 in the offence.
The run game has been the key for the Buccaneers, who like to get in the lead early and have been accepting the ball if they win the toss, so expect them to start with the ball and use Bucky Irving on the ground as much as possible.
He has taken the main role back in recent weeks and gets involved in the passing game as well. The passing game to running backs is a great spot here as Baker leads the league in passes behind the line of scrimmage, and Bucky has been the main beneficiary of that recently, with Rachaad White a capable backup to him.
I think I like the Commanders getting over a field goal on the spread, but this game could go either way. I do like the Over in this one, though, it should be a fun way to close out Sunday night. Best Picks: Austin Ekeler o2.5 receptions – 4/5, o3.5 receptions – 2/1. I do like Bucky receptions or receiving yards as well, I think both are good positions to attack in this one.
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After a Saturday winner for Rizzel, here's hoping Cairnzy and Co can bash the bookies again today.
In December 2020 we sadly 
