The ATP Rome Masters is well and truly underway this week. Star-of-the-show Rafael Nadal plays his second-round match on Saturday afternoon, having successfully navigated his opening fixture.
This clash brings an entirely different challenge, as on the other side of the net, stands world No 9 Hubert Hurkacz.
Nadal has been explicit in his comments to the media this week that it’s now or never when it comes to his physical conditioning. He’s eased his way back into the ATP Tour so far with mixed success, but if he’s to be even close to competitive at Roland Garros later this month, Nadal needs to bring his top level in Rome.
His first-round win over Belgian Zizou Bergs was a start; today will reveal if the Spaniard’s got more to give.
Hurkacz is playing his first match in Rome on Saturday, with the Pole having received a bye into the second round. The big server has had an impressive clay court season in 2024, considering it’s his weakest surface. A title in Estoril was followed by twin round of 16 runs at Monte-Carlo and Madrid.
Can Hurkacz grab a statement win over Nadal, or will the 10-time Rome champion keep his dreams of more silverware on clay alive? Read on for our Nadal vs Hurkacz prediction and betting tips.
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How the Bookies View It: Experience Prevails
Nadal is given the edge by bookmakers in this match. The 23-time Grand Slam champion pays 4/5 to win, slightly ahead of Hurkacz’s 1/1. However, set betting favours a 2-0 Hurkacz victory as the most likely outcome, paying 2/1.
Recent Head-to-Head: Nothing to See Here
Somewhat surprisingly, Hurkacz and Nadal are yet to meet on the ATP Tour. Despite Hurkacz being 27 years old, the two have not shared the court.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Hurkacz’s results on clay over the last month have looked good on paper. However, he hasn’t beaten a top 20 player since the third round of the Australian Open in mid-January. Since then, each time Hurkacz has come up against a player of any calibre–Daniil Medvedev, Ugo Humbert, Grigor Dimitrov, Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz–he’s lost.
There’s been a marked switch in Nadal’s mindset here in Rome. While each of his previous tournaments this year–Adelaide, Barcelona and Madrid–saw the 38-year-old improve, the reality is they were test runs.
He would have withdrawn at any stage if a niggle arose or he felt unable to give his best. Now, however, he’s declared he’ll be swinging for the fences and emptying the tank. Expect Nadal to leave it all on the court this weekend.
Hurkacz is riding a streak of three opening-match losses in a row at the ATP Rome Masters. The Pole’s last three losses here have also been in straight sets, to players outside of the world’s top 40.
Nadal vs Hurkacz Betting Tips & Predictions
It’s a make or break match for Nadal, but we say the former world No. 1 will draw a line under his Roland-Garros title credentials on Saturday afternoon. Expect a statement victory from the Spaniard.
- Nadal to win @ 4/5
- Nadal to win 2-0 @ 11/5
This second-round match takes place second on Centre Court for those who like the look of our Nadal vs Hurkacz prediction and want to take a punt.
In December 2020 we sadly 
