MrFixIt's Big Acca returns on Sunday with eight UEFA Nations League selections, ranked by confidence and offering a potential return of more than 70/1.
Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to take a shorter-priced accumulator or continue building towards a bigger return.
This edition focuses exclusively on the Nations League, with the latest xG, xGA and xPTS figures helping identify the strongest selections across the four divisions.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
Finland provide the foundation for Sunday's accumulator, with San Marino facing another difficult assignment against overwhelming favourites. The Finns have generated 7.24 xG across their five Nations League matches while allowing only 3.92 xGA. Their positive expected-goal differential of +3.32 places them among the stronger performers in League C.
Finland have also accumulated 7.89 xPTS, ranking third in the division. Their ability to create more chances than they concede gives them a solid underlying profile. At 1/41, Finland offer little return individually, but their position as overwhelming favourites makes them the logical starting point for Sunday's accumulator.
France's home meeting with Turkey offers another opportunity to support a short-priced favourite, although the visitors' underlying performances deserve closer attention.
Turkey have collected no points from their opening five matches despite generating 6.21 xPTS. Their performances have been considerably better than their results, although defensive weaknesses remain a concern. France have accumulated 7.50 xPTS and generated 7.14 xG, while Turkey have allowed more than they have created across the competition.
The French have the stronger results and home advantage, supporting their position as 1/4 favourites.
Croatia have already beaten Czechia during this Nations League campaign, and their previous meeting provides a useful starting point for assessing Sunday's rematch. The hosts recorded a 2-1 victory in that encounter, demonstrating their ability to overcome opponents who have struggled against stronger opposition.
Croatia's attacking performances have been competitive, although their defensive numbers suggest this is a more demanding selection than the opening two. Czechia face another difficult away assignment against opponents with the attacking quality to create opportunities.
Croatia are available at 8/15 and complete the opening treble.
Finland, France & Croatia all to win at 1/1 with Coral
Few teams in Nations League C have produced stronger underlying numbers than Albania, whose attacking and defensive performances make them an attractive selection against Belarus. The visitors have generated 9.79 xG while allowing only 3.77 xGA, producing a positive differential of +6.02. Their 10.55 xPTS is also the highest figure in the division.
Belarus have accumulated 7.12 xPTS, but their attacking output is considerably weaker. They have generated 5.16 xG across five matches, highlighting the difference in chance creation between the sides.
Albania have also been consistent defensively, allowing fewer than 0.80 xGA per game. The 11/10 price introduces greater risk than the opening selections, but Albania's underlying superiority supports their inclusion.
Finland, France, Croatia & Albania all to win at 2/1 with Coral
Montenegro's attacking output stands out ahead of their trip to Cyprus, with the visitors averaging 2.07 xG per match. They have generated 10.34 xG across five Nations League fixtures while allowing only 4.48 xGA. That produces a positive expected-goal differential of +5.86, reflecting their ability to create substantially more than they concede.
Cyprus have generated 6.84 xG while allowing exactly the same amount, leaving them with a neutral differential.
Montenegro have also accumulated 8.80 xPTS compared with Cyprus' 7.12, giving the visitors another advantage in the underlying figures. The away fixture increases the risk, but Montenegro's stronger attacking production and defensive record support their inclusion at 27/20.
Finland, France, Croatia, Albania & Montenegro all to win at 7/1 with Coral
Five consecutive Nations League victories underline Spain's consistency, although England's attacking figures suggest Sunday's meeting will be a demanding test. Spain have collected 15 points from their opening five matches, establishing themselves as the competition's strongest side in terms of results.
Their underlying performances support those victories. The hosts have generated 11.48 xG while allowing only 4.73 xGA, producing a positive differential of +6.75.
England represent a substantial challenge. Thomas Tuchel's side have generated 14.50 xG, the highest total in Nations League A, and accumulated 10.54 xPTS compared with Spain's 10.83.
Spain's defensive record provides encouragement, with the hosts allowing only 0.95 xGA per game. Their home figures are particularly impressive, with 3.80 xG generated and only 0.96 xGA conceded across two matches. The perfect winning record and home advantage support Spain at 3/4, although England's attacking strength makes this one of the more competitive fixtures in the accumulator.
Finland, France, Croatia, Albania, Montenegro & Spain all to win at 14/1 with Coral
Belgium face an Italy side whose defensive performances have left them vulnerable, despite producing stronger attacking numbers than the hosts. The Belgians have collected nine points from five Nations League matches, although their underlying performances have been relatively balanced.
They have generated 7.16 xG while allowing 6.88 xGA, leaving them with a narrow positive differential of +0.28.
Italy have produced 9.91 xG, but their defensive record is considerably weaker. They have allowed 10.06 xGA, averaging 2.01 per match. That vulnerability gives Belgium an opportunity to exploit home advantage against opponents who have struggled to restrict chances.
Italy have accumulated 7.04 xPTS compared with Belgium's 6.96, showing how closely matched these teams are. The 15/13 price reflects the uncertainty surrounding this fixture, making Belgium a higher-risk selection than the stronger favourites earlier in the accumulator.
Finland, France, Croatia, Albania, Montenegro, Spain & Belgium all to win at 30/1 with Coral
A 2-0 victory over Latvia earlier in the campaign gives Armenia encouragement ahead of the return fixture, which completes Sunday's accumulator.
The visitors restricted Latvia to only 0.20 xG during that previous meeting, demonstrating their ability to control the opposition's attacking opportunities.
Armenia have generated 4.04 xG while allowing 4.00 xGA across their five Nations League matches, leaving them with a marginally positive expected-goal differential. Their 5.66 xPTS suggests they have been competitive without establishing the same level of dominance as Albania or Montenegro.
Armenia's defensive performances have been relatively consistent, with only 0.80 xGA allowed per game. Their attacking output has been more limited, averaging 0.81 xG. That modest attacking production explains why the visitors represent the highest-risk selection in Sunday's accumulator.
At 13/10, Armenia have a substantial impact on the overall return. Anyone unwilling to take the full risk has a natural stopping point after Belgium. For those targeting a bigger return, Armenia's previous victory over Latvia and their defensive record provide the justification for completing the eightfold.
Finland, France, Croatia, Albania, Montenegro, Spain, Belgium & Armenia all to win at 74/1 with Coral
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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