It is safe to assume Jurgen Klopp’s post-match pint in Belgrade tasted a little less sweet when he checked the score in Friday night's other match. After the Netherlands’ seven-goal party against Greece, this final-round clash suddenly matters far more.
For the hosts, the assignment is frustratingly simple: win or bust. They got the job done in the Balkans thanks to the sheer class of Florian Wirtz, but they still trail Monday's visitors by three points.
To snatch top spot and secure a seeded path into the quarter-finals, Germany must find a way to dismantle a Dutch side that has suddenly discovered a terrifying attacking rhythm.
The Oranje were utterly ruthless in their 7-0 demolition of Greece, a historic statement victory after an already impressive group stage performance.
Tijjani Reijnders helped himself to a hat-trick, but there was also a bad moment at half-time, as Frenkie de Jong departed at half-time with a back issue.
He joins Virgil van Dijk and Brian Brobbey in the treatment room, and now the Dutch have to prove that Friday night was not just a flash, but a real turning point, as they face a far greater challenge.
How the bookies view it: Germany need the points at all costs
Despite the sensational nature of the visitors' recent victory, the bookmakers price Germany as heavy home favourites at around 17/20. These odds reflect the hosts’ desperate need for all three points.
If you believe that the Oranje have what it takes to triumph in Berlin, you can back the Netherlands at 14/5. A draw is priced at 3/1.
Recent head-to-head: They are closer in strength than ever
Historically, Germany have held the upper hand in this fierce rivalry, boasting 18 wins to the Netherlands’ 12, with 18 draws to complete the 48-match record.
However, recent history paints a picture of a much tighter contest. Germany won three of the last 10 H2Hs, and the Netherlands picked up two wins. Still, Die Nationalelf have not lost in the last five.
Players to watch: Reijnders has to prove himself against a top side
Florian Wirtz continues to pull a lot of the strings in Germany’s attack, and he was also on target on Friday against Serbia. Considering that the Dutch will have to play without de Jong, I believe Wirtz may have more space to be creative.
On the other side, we have Tijjani Reijnders. I mentioned in my previous preview that people may underestimate him because he plays in Saudi Arabia, and he proved me right. His form is phenomenal, and he will be even more confident after scoring two hat-tricks in his last three matches.
Probable line-ups
Germany: ter Stegen, Treu, Schlotterbeck, Brown, Tah, Kimmich, Karl, Pavlovic, Wirtz, Scherhant, Havertz
Netherlands: Verbruggen, Dumfries, van de Ven, van Hecke, J. Timber, Q. Timber, Veerman, Reijnders, Summerville, Malen, Gakpo
Anything else catch the eye?
The Oranje are flying after a historic 7-0 victory and only need to avoid defeat to win the group. Germany must win, while the Netherlands can afford to sit slightly deeper and play on the counter-attack to protect their top-spot status.
I believe there is a good chance they will handle the Germans and at least reach a draw. I’d go for a double chance bet or a +1.0 asian handicap in favour of the Dutch.
The win over Greece was the Netherlands’ first clean sheet since November 2025, and I do not believe they will be able to fully stop Die Nationalelf. I’ll definitely be backing BTTS too.
And consequently, I will also be backing the Total Shots on Target market, which has been a constant for me in all matches involving the Oranje.
GambleAware