The race for the summit of the UEFA Nations League comes down to the wire this Sunday evening, as Belgium welcome Italy to the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels. A draw will be enough for the Azzurri to move forward, while the Red Devils need a win at all costs.
Belgium arrive in excellent spirits following a hard-fought 2-1 away victory over Turkey on Thursday. Despite going behind early, Mark van Bommel’s men produced a stunning four-minute blitz, with Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere both finding the net.
That comeback win took the Red Devils to three victories from five group games, meaning a win on home soil this weekend will see them leapfrog their opponents and finish in the top two.
Italy, meanwhile, produced a magnificent performance to take control of the group. Roberto Mancini's side moved to the top of the standings after also coming from behind to dismantle France 3-1 at San Siro on Thursday.
Ever since losing to this exact opponent at the start of the competition, the Azzurri have become surprisingly efficient in the final third, scoring 3+ goals in 3/4 fixtures.
On the team news front, Belgium are boosted by the return of midfield anchor Roméo Lavia, who has served his one-match suspension. However, Romelu Lukaku remains a major doubt after missing the Turkey trip with a hip issue.
Italy are still navigating the absence of four key players due to injury, but given Thursday's dominant display, Mancini may simply opt for an unchanged starting XI.
How the bookies view it: The Red Devils can clutch the win
The bookmakers found it difficult to split these two in-form sides. Belgium are priced as slight home favourites at around 11/10, while Italy have been priced at 21/10. The draw is available at 29/10.
Recent head-to-head: Italy outclassed Belgium when it mattered
Matches between these two European giants rarely disappoint, and they've met in high-stakes encounters in recent times. Examples include the 2021 UNL 3rd-place decider and the Euro 2020 quarter-finals, with Italy claiming two wins.
The Azzurri have had the upper hand lately, claiming six wins in the last 10 H2Hs. But the most important fact right now is that the Red Devils won the Matchday 1 fixture in September.
Players to watch: Kevin De Bruyne takes every opportunity
For Belgium, captain Kevin De Bruyne remains the undisputed orchestrator. He looked incredibly sharp against Turkey, netting the equaliser and consistently testing the goalkeeper.
He has been very active throughout the entire competition and, notably, has taken a minimum of 3+ shots in every game he started.
For Italy, it is impossible to look past Francesco Pio Esposito. The young striker was the hero against France, scoring twice, and has now registered a goal or an assist in three of his last four Nations League outings.
Probable line-ups
Belgium: Lammens, De Cuyper, Mechele, Ngoy, Castagne, De Bruyne, Lavia, Tielemans, Doku, De Ketelaere, Moreira
Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Gatti, Scalvini, Kayode, Frattesi, Tonali, Barella, Cambiaghi, F. Esposito, S. Esposito
Anything else catch the eye?
Italy need a result to guarantee their position at the top, while Belgium must push for a win in front of their home supporters to secure a top-two finish. I believe this dynamic guarantees an open game, particularly in the second half.
Neither defence looked watertight on Thursday, but both attacks were ruthless, so I expect goals at both ends this time. The Azzurri failed to score in the recent H2H, but their improvement since then has been sensational.
Belgium vs Italy Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
- Croatia vs Czech Republic Prediction and Betting Tips – 15/11/2026
- France vs Turkey Prediction and Betting Tips – 15/11/2026
- Spain vs England Prediction and Betting Tips – 15/11/2026
- Portugal vs Denmark Prediction and Betting Tips – 14/11/2026
- Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction and Betting Tips – 14/11/2026
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