Spain will look to complete a perfect Nations League group campaign when England visit the Metropolitano Stadium on Sunday, with kick-off at 19:45. Both countries have qualified for the quarter-finals, but first place in Group A3 remains undecided ahead of their final fixture.
Luis de la Fuente's side have won all five matches, establishing a three-point advantage over Thomas Tuchel's England. The visitors have responded to their opening defeat against Spain with four consecutive victories, keeping themselves in contention for top spot.
Spain arrive following Thursday's 2-0 victory over Czechia in Prague. Alex Baena converted a first-half penalty before Marc Pubill added a second in stoppage time, with the hosts reduced to 10 men following Ladislav Krejci's dismissal.
That result extended Spain's winning sequence to 12 matches and their unbeaten run across all competitions to 43.
England also collected three points on Thursday, beating Croatia 2-1 at Wembley. Morgan Rogers opened the scoring before Petar Sucic equalised following a defensive mistake from Jarell Quansah. Harry Kane restored England's advantage from the penalty spot, ensuring his record-breaking 126th international appearance ended with another victory.
Tuchel will nevertheless demand an improved performance. England struggled to maintain control against Croatia, particularly during the second half, and needed a penalty to regain their lead.
Spain's ability to dominate possession and sustain attacking pressure presents a different challenge. England have demonstrated their attacking potential throughout the competition, but Sunday's meeting will provide a clearer indication of their progress against elite opposition.
How the bookies view it
Spain are favourites at 3/4, representing an implied probability of 57.1%. England are available at 7/2, while the draw is priced at 10/3.
Over 2.5 goals is 4/6, carrying a 60% implied probability, with under 2.5 available at 13/10. Both teams to score is also priced at 4/6, while the opposite outcome is 13/10.
Head to head: Spain strong recent record
Spain have won the last two meetings, including September's 3-2 Nations League victory at Wembley.
That encounter produced five goals, with the visitors generating 3.12 xG from 15 shots and creating six big chances. England recorded 1.74 xG from 13 attempts, including five on target. The Spanish also defeated England 2-1 in the Euro 2024 final, with both recent meetings featuring goals at either end.
England's last victory came in October 2018, when they won 3-2 in Seville during the Nations League.
Across the seven meetings listed, Spain have recorded four victories, England two and one finished level. Those encounters have produced 23 goals, averaging 3.29 per fixture. Five of the seven matches have featured over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in five.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
Harry Kane will again carry much of England's attacking responsibility following another significant international milestone.
The Bayern Munich striker scored his 92nd England goal against Croatia, leaving him eight short of a century. His season statistics demonstrate his influence beyond finishing. Kane has scored four goals in 715 minutes, although his xG of 7.03 suggests he has converted fewer opportunities than the quality of his chances warrants.
The 33-year-old has registered 43 shots, including 11 on target, while recording 54 touches inside the opposition penalty area. His xGOT of 2.90 indicates his shooting accuracy has been less impressive than his overall chance involvement.
Kane's creative contribution is particularly significant. He has supplied eight assists from 2.84 xA, created 22 chances and registered nine big chances created.
Predicted lineups
Spain (4-2-3-1): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Huijsen, Cucurella; Ruiz, Pedri; Yamal, Lopez, Baena; Oyarzabal.
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Burn, Hall; Anderson, Rice; Rogers, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 10/11 is the preferred betting option, with the underlying Nations League statistics providing encouragement for another high-scoring encounter.
Spain have averaged 2.30 xG across five group matches, while allowing 0.95 xGA. Their attacking output includes 16.2 shots per fixture, with six hitting the target and 11.4 attempts coming from inside the opposition penalty area.
England's figures are even stronger going forward. Tuchel's side have averaged 2.90 xG and 17.2 shots, while registering 5.8 efforts on target and creating 5.4 big chances per match. Those numbers highlight two teams generating substantial attacking pressure, although the venue-specific comparison reveals an important difference.
Spain have averaged 1.90 xG across their two home matches, while conceding only 0.48 xGA. Their opponents have managed just five shots per fixture, demonstrating how effectively De la Fuente's team restrict opportunities.
England's away performances have been considerably more open. Across two matches, they have averaged 3.96 xG, producing 20.5 shots and nine on target per fixture. Those figures are heavily influenced by the emphatic 7-0 victory in Croatia, where England accumulated 6.43 xG and created 12 big chances. That exceptional performance should not be treated as their expected output against Spain.
Thursday's results also provide useful context. Spain generated 3.41 xG from 22 shots against Czechia, while England produced 2.80 xG from 15 attempts against Croatia.
Both teams therefore arrive having created enough opportunities to score multiple goals in their latest fixtures. Spain's defensive organisation remains the main concern. Their home performances suggest England will find clear chances difficult to create, particularly if the hosts establish control of possession.
Nevertheless, the attacking statistics indicate both countries possess the quality to threaten one another. England's ability to generate opportunities away from home is encouraging, while Spain have consistently converted attacking pressure into goals.
The possible returns of Yamal and Oyarzabal would further strengthen Spain's attacking options, adding another consideration to the goals markets. At 10/11, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals carries an implied probability of 52.4%. The selection requires at least three goals, with each country contributing.
Spain's attacking strength, England's chance creation and the recent scoring record between the countries support both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 10/11 as Sunday's main recommendation.
Spain vs England Betting Tips & Predictions
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