Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 1 – Everton vs Coventry – Friday 6th November at 20:00
Thierno Barry's shooting record makes him one of the strongest candidates for a player shots bet when Everton host Coventry City at Goodison Park this weekend.
The Everton forward has registered 27 shots across eight Premier League appearances this season, averaging 3.38 attempts per match. More importantly, he has recorded at least two shots in every one of those eight appearances, giving him a 100% success rate for this particular selection.
Barry has also played 685 minutes, averaging almost 86 minutes per appearance. That level of involvement provides a strong foundation for a market which requires only two attempts, regardless of whether they hit the target.
His recent performances reinforce the argument. Barry registered five shots against Hull City, another five against Tottenham Hotspur and four against Manchester United. He also recorded three attempts against Chelsea and two against Arsenal.
The underlying attacking numbers are encouraging. Barry has accumulated 5.08 xG this season, alongside 12 shots on target and three goals. His 0.64 xG per match indicates he is consistently finding shooting opportunities in dangerous positions.
Coventry's defensive record strengthens the case. They have conceded an average of 1.75 goals across their four away Premier League matches, allowing 1.62 xGA per game.
Their latest 3-1 victory over Sunderland also exposed defensive weaknesses. Sunderland generated 2.07 xG from 17 shots despite losing comfortably. Barry should therefore have opportunities to maintain his shooting record against opponents who have struggled to restrict attacking chances.
The bookmaker's price of 1/6, equivalent to approximately 1.17 decimal, implies an 85.7% probability. The supplied market estimate is 87.13%, while Barry's actual eight-match record provides further support.
With two or more attempts recorded in every league appearance, Barry's consistency makes this a strong low-odds selection.
- Bet: Barry to have 1.5+ shots
- Odds: 1/6
- Bank: 10.00 units returns 11.67
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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