Man City Champions League odds: AI predicts 83% chance of glory despite Rodri blow

With the market-best Man City Champions League odds still at 3/1, there seems to be consensus that the trophy will be returning to the Etihad Stadium sooner rather than later.

That price represents only a slight drift from City's pre-tournament 11/4, despite their mediocre league phase-opening 0-0 draw against vanquished 2023 final opponents Inter Milan.

As reflected by our latest UCL outright prediction, only current holders Real Madrid are anywhere near Man City in the outright stakes. But according to one source, there's only one team lifting the trophy in 2025 – even though their star midfield metronome Rodri may well miss the remainder of 2024/25, after sustaining a serious knee injury against Arsenal on 22nd September.

Why current Man City Champions League odds may be too conservative

City's market-best 3/1 price equates to an implied probability of 25%. However, a study by bookmaker BetVictor using artificial intelligence implies much more than that.

The study identified 12 criteria that clubs should aim to meet to enhance their chances of winning Europe's premier club competition. This analysis covered all winning teams in the UCL since it began in 1992. The criteria included key performance data, such as goals scored and conceded, clean sheet percentage, squad depth and defensive mistakes that led to goals.

Each club's European performances over the past five seasons were then assessed against these factors. Pep Guardiola's team notably met 10 out of the 12 criteria, or 83%. In full, the criteria were as follows:

*A club’s top two players (combined) should score/assist at least 35% of the team's total goals.

City could still be the ‘perfect' UCL team

As shown above, the areas where Manchester City did not quite measure up were clean sheet percentage and goals from set pieces, with just 40% and 14% respectively, below the recommended thresholds of 50% and 15%.

However, that doesn't seem to matter too much when considering Erling Haaland's prowess up front. He's already as good as killed the Premier League top scorer market, having hit nine goals across the first four Premier League rounds.

The Norwegian phenom has also claimed the UCL golden boot on two previous occasions, and it seems to be a straight fight with Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe for this season's award.

In the study, Bayern Munich followed closely with nine criteria met. Last season's champions, Real Madrid, ranked third in the predictions by meeting eight of the criteria. So too did Arsenal, while Liverpool and PSG met seven.

Will Rodri's injury have a negative effect?

City have more strength in depth than most sides, but there’s no question that it can only hinder City’s chances of fighting on two fronts effectively. When a team plays as it must under Pep Guardiola’s peerless pass-and-move gameplan, the midfield role is one of the most physically demanding. Even for the greatest athletes, asking a number six in that setup to play twice a week is a risky move.

Current Ballon d'Or second-favourite Rodri’s absence certainly looks all the more significant when crunching the pure numbers from more recent UCL campaigns, and analysing how he compared to other participants in the three cornerstone metrics that make City the force they are today.

Sourced from Whoscored, the figures shown speak for themselves, with Rodri consistently ranking in the top-five for average passes per game over the preceding trio of UCL campaigns.

Such a relentless pass success rate is also something that can mean the difference between triumph and heartbreak in a competition of the UCL’s calibre, but most significant of all is Rodri's surge up the Key Passes ranking.

It is a sure reflection of his development into the complete midfielder under Guardiola, and that itself provides ample reason for bookmakers to lengthen City’s odds in the short term. That said, City are still well worth backing in the UCL outright market.

🔗 Share on Social Media