Champions League outright winner odds and prediction: See which ‘perfect’ side is still a tempting 4/1

As ever, the UEFA Champions League outright winner odds market is one of the most exciting and dynamic ones around.

It’s a new era in the competition’s rich and illustrious history, as 36 teams vie for 16 knockout round places in a single league table. It’s been the biggest shake-up in the UCL for over two decades, and the impact on betting markets is clear.

That’s because the top-seeded sides no longer have the same degree of protection they used to. Under the previous format, top seeds (drawn from Pot 1) avoided each other until at least the knockout stage. Now, they will face two such opponents in the UCL's new ‘league phase’.

So now is the time to study the latest Champions League outright winner odds and place your bets. Below, we’ve highlighted several teams that stand out as particularly tempting prospects.

Best Champions League outright winner odds – top 10 favourites

Featured selection

Liverpool (4/1)

Nothing seems to be able to stop Liverpool at the moment, as Arne Slot's side maintained their 100% record in the Champions League to become the competition's outright favourites.

A 1-0 win over Girona was sealed by a 63rd minute Mohamed Salah penalty, which saw the Reds move to six wins from as many matches.

Although it may seem trivial to select the competition's current favourites as a featured selection, bookies' pricing of Slot's men at 4/1 provides fantastic value for punters, as they seem incredibly likely to be able to take home the trophy.

Helped by the poor form of Manchester City and Real Madrid, bettors should look to get behind Liverpool as soon as possible.

Notable movers

Arsenal

A 3-0 thumping of Monaco saw Arsenal go third in the Champions League table this week, as they have now picked up 13 points from their opening six matches in the competition.

Eight goals in their last two matches is hardly anything to frown about either, so Mikel Arteta's men seem good value for their current position.

Now 7/1 to win the club's first ever European trophy, the campaign is picking up for the Gunners, who will now comfortably qualify for the next stage. However, with a Liverpool side that has a 100% record topping the group phase table, any team may fall into insignificance compared to Arne Slot's men.

Real Madrid

A scraping 3-2 win over Atalanta has seen Real Madrid fall to third favourites to continue their record-breaking antics in the Champions League.

The team with the most trophies in the competition's history have struggled this year, winning only 50% of their games.

Madrid are currently in real danger of not getting through the group stage, as the gap between themselves and PSG stands at only two points.

Should they fail to progress, this would be a catastrophic failure on the part manager Carlo Ancelotti.

At 13/2, bookies are less than convinced that Los Blancos will go on to secure another of Europe's most coveted trophy.

Barcelona

The Catalans have benefitted from an intriguing blend of youth and experience in the final third, with Robert Lewandowski and teenage star Lamine Yamal featuring prominently.

However it was Raphinha and Ferran Torres who were on the scoresheet to overcome Borussia Dortmund, a victory which saw Barcelona up to second in the table, having won five of their six matches.

They've shown immense character after their shocking blip against Monaco in the club's league phase opener, so their 8/1 odds should not be sniffed at by any means.

Trends to watch

People who want to place bets on the Champions League, whether it be in outright or matchday markets, can see some trends from this list of winners, which may prove useful:

Three is the magic number

The previous UCL campaign saw an average of exactly three goals per match. Meanwhile, the two campaigns before that saw a total average within 0.5 of that figure. This suggests that total goal selections in the 2-3 range will be as popular as ever in 2024/25, though naturally, there will be an erring towards 3-4 for games in which any of the top 10 favourites listed earlier take on a team drawn from Pot 4.

Speaking of goals, seven out of the last nine UCL editions have seen the top scorer net 12+ times.

England and Spain reign

Ten of the last 11 UCL editions have seen a winner from the Premier League or La Liga. Bayern Munich’s win of 2020 – under less conventional circumstances than normal due to COVID – is the anomaly there. And Porto’s success of 2004 remains the only time this century that a team not playing in the traditional top five of European domestic leagues has lifted the trophy.

No love lost between compatriots

For the benefit of those interested in the ‘guess the finalists’ market, finals in which the two teams are from the same country are not a particularly common occurrence. That said, the last two times date back only to 2019 and 2021, with both finals being all-English ones.

Strike hard, strike fast

The respective triumphs for Liverpool and Chelsea in those years also contribute to an interesting trend: the last six UCL finals have been won to nil. That no doubt reflects the tendency for games to be more closed up and tense the further along the knockout stage the tournament progresses. Indeed, 2014 remains the last time that the team scoring first did not go on to lift the trophy.

Our prediction

This is Real’s competition to lose, and simply put, they're our pick. However, an each-way bet on Liverpool (or around 5/1 on them to reach the final) looks like it could be a smart move at around the same price.

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