Another unlikely pair meet in the second semi-final of the ATP Rome Masters 2024, with Nicolas Jarry taking on Tommy Paul for a spot in the final. Both have pulled off big upsets to get this far, but only one can advance. Read on for our Jarry vs Paul prediction and betting tips.
Jarry arrives in the semi-finals off the back of a surprise win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Well, it wasn’t a surprise to us. The Greek was playing great tennis, but we had a suspicion that Jarry would be a bad match-up for him, which he was.
Playing in his first-ever Masters 1000 semi-final, the Chilean will look to continue serving big, coming to the net and banging big forehands.
For Paul, he somehow managed to escape from an epic two-hour, 43-minute arm-wrestle against Hubert Hurkacz. The American had been breezing through the Rome draw, dispatching defending champion Daniil Medvedev en route to the quarter-finals.
Hurkacz looked to have his number when he was ahead in the third set, but Paul showed some real guts to fight back, winning an epic final game. Can he dig deep and find the same fighting spirit against Jarry today?
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How the Bookies View It: They’re Giving Nothing Away
Bookmaker bet365 has utterly abdicated from making a decision on this match. The outright betting odds are level at 10/11 apiece, as is virtually every other market. A straight sets win to Jarry pays 12/5, as it does for Paul. Three set victories return 3/1 for both men too.
Recent Head-to-Head: There’s History
Jarry and Paul have only met once on the ATP Tour. This was last year in the round of 64 at Roland Garros, where Jarry prevailed in four sets.
However, they’ve met another two times in non-ATP main draw matches–once in qualifying for Adelaide, and once in the USA F12 round of 16. Paul won both matches, with the latter being an epic three-setter in 2014.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
When Paul has been locked in this week, he’s looked unbeatable. Fighting back against Hurkacz he was brilliant, while blitzing past Medvedev he was equally impressive. However, the American has looked limp at times too. For the best part of an hour, he was pretty underwhelming against Hurkacz.
Jarry will look to capitalise on this ebb and flow from Paul by remaining rock-solid on serve. The Chilean has defended break-points very well in Rome, winning 11 of 13 points under pressure in his match against Tsitsipas.
How each player interacts with the net will be interesting as well. Jarry advanced 38 times against Tsitsipas at a 76 percent success rate, while Paul came in 33 times for a 70 percent win rate. Who will look to shorten points first in this semi-final?
Jarry vs Paul Betting Tips & Predictions
As the bookies indicate, this one is a real coin toss. Either player could win the match-up on their day, but we have to give it to Jarry. The Chilean proved last year that he has the game to beat Paul on clay, and we say he’ll do exactly that on Friday.
- Jarry to win @ 10/11
- Three sets total @ 11/10
Jarry and Paul play last on Centre Court this Friday, so check out our outright predictions for the ATP Rome Masters 2024 while you wait.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
