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Flat racing is all about whether your horse can secure a clear run through the field. We see it on many occasions every day when horses who deserve to be higher placed, simply aren't because they can't find the gaps and Origintrail was one for Rizzel on Tuesday. She was begging for room for a few furlongs, didn't find it, and ran on towards the end, but it was too late and she missed the places by one. She probably wouldn't have won with a clear run, but she definitely would've been placed at the very least.
So Sleepy lived up to her name by leaving the stalls many lengths behind the rest of the field, which is something you cannot be doing in a 5f sprint. It was game over from that point, especially with the pace the front horse set.
Cairnzy's Tips
Call Me Ginger 12/1 EW – Musselburgh 5.05
There are plenty of form angles into this race, particularly Eternal Sunshine, who failed to land the four-timer last time but still remains in great nick. Protest Rally, Parisiac, and Sugar Hill Babe all bring recent winning form to the table as well and I can understand why the four mentioned find themselves towards the head of the market.
I've opted to go for a completely different approach to this race, and it could come back to bite me as I'm taking a horse who is completely out of sorts at the moment. With that said, I can't ignore how well-handicapped Jim Goldie's runner is coming into this race. Call Me Ginger may be out of sorts coming into this contest but he's a whopping 17lb below his last winning mark which came around this same time of last year when landing a Class 2 at Ascot of a mark of 87. His form dipped dramatically after the Ascot success and he's yet to find any sort of spark this term after returning from a 224-day break back in June. I thought 12/1 was a fair each-way price for my selection, and although we need a serious turn of form to be involved in this contest, I wouldn't rule out a turn of fortune as he drops down into a Class 5 handicap for the first time in his career of an exploitable mark of 73.
Letterston Lilly 7/4 – Worcester 6.10
I was surprised Rizz didn't opt for a jumps selection today, as there are some decent enough races on offer at Worcester on Wednesday evening. The 5.10 was a race I looked at, however, I struggled to figure that contest out when it came to studying it and opted last minute to leave it alone entirely.
After scanning through the remainder of the Worcester meeting I landed on the 6.10, a Class 4 hurdle contest over 2m4f. It's an interesting little race and I changed on a few occasions before finally deciding on Letterston Lilly for trainers Peter&Michael Bowen and will be ridden by jockey Sean Bowen. Letterston Lilly remains lightly raced at the age of 4 and is still unexposed in this sort of sphere. She's been in great form this season, comfortably landing a Southwell bumper by just under 3L before taking well to the hurdles when winning at Cartmel by just under 5L. Her most recent outing however was the standout piece of form in my opinion, and it was the main factor when it came to choosing Letterston Lilly over the others horses that I scratched my head at when studying the race.
My selection recently chased home subsequent Listed winner Ghale Mahler at Market Rasen last month, going down by 4L in the end after simply being outclassed in the business end. Regardless, It was a cracking effort and more importantly a cracking piece of form to bring into this contest. Ghale Mahler was in great form before that contest ( won her previous four races ) and made short work of her opposition last time out in a Listed hurdle race at Galway, finishing 10L ahead of the second-placed horse. Notably, Gavin Cromwell's Al Gasparo who runs in this race was roughly 21L behind Ghale Mahler that day in fifth, and if going by that form you'd assume Al Gasparo has a bit to find with my selection. Surprisingly not a lot separates the two in the market with Letterston Lilly shading favouritism at 7/4 ahead of Al Gasparo who is marked up a 2/1 second favourite.
Rizzel's Tips
Nala Star 5/2 – Catterick 2.15
Ollie Sangster is a young trainer going places, and if you look at his stats, when he sends horses on a decent trip they tend to come back with the goods, so Nala Star gets my vote in the opener at Catterick.
This race is not a particularly strong race, and as the betting suggests, only a handful should be capable of winning this, unless a newcomer surprises everyone or the horses with poor form turn it around. For me, Nala Star has the best pedigree for today's race over 5f. There are some other horses who have decent-ish pedigrees, but maybe for slightly further, but for an out-and-out sprinter, Nala Star's pedigree looks the best. She is by Cotai Glory and out of a Class 1 placed mare who was speedy enough as a juvenile to win over 5f and then 6f. So far, she has hit the crossbar on three occasions from her first four runs, with her last run seeing her out of the places for the first time. The form is probably the best or second best on show, which is very up for debate, but I thought that it was worthwhile following the Sangster horse based on them making the trip up to Catterick from their Marlborough base which is a solid 9 hour round trip.
Ollie Sangster's horses have to be respected when he sends them out of their local racetrack area. For example:
- 1/1 at Ayr
- 3/3 at Beverley
- 1/3 at Chester
- 2/5 at Doncaster
- 1/1 at Newcastle
Obviously there are some lesser ones there, like at York he is 0/6 but that's one of the major courses in the country where there is some very competitive racing, but Nala Star is the first runner they're sending to Catterick and they have opted for the first time cheekpieces which is also another pointer that they fancy their chances.
Night On Earth 5/1 – Catterick 4.55
There is a lot of pace on offer for this race, and it might not be the smartest of ideas to go for one of those pace angles, but I think the pace can hold up nicely at Catterick so it doesn't concern me as much as it would do on a stiffer track.
Ready Freddie Go will be one of the pace angles and will likely take on my selection Night On Earth on the front end. He is in good form and is a recent winner when making all, so is going to be a big player in today's race, but I think the weight advantage of Night On Earth could be a massive reason why the top weight and the others will struggle to catch him. Night On Earth is a very quick horse and is quite freegoing when leaving the stalls, so I think that Catterick is a track which could be perfect for him. His best form comes on tight track which is best for nippy, more speedier types, the likes of Chester, Goodwood and Epsom, so his recent form at Hamilton and Ascot was never going to see him run his best. He showed that he is capable of winning off similar marks when winning at York at the back end of July off a mark of 79, and given he is running off 81 with a 5lb claimer he is handicapped to go in yet again. York is a much more suitable track for him, so it's hardly a surprise to see him perform when given his conditions.
Joe Leavy is an apprentice in demand, so it's noticeable that Ian Williams has managed to get him to go to Catterick for the one ride. He is riding extremely well this year, with 7 wins in the last fortnight proving that. He normally rides down south, so it's a good indicator that he is making the trip up to Catterick for this ride.
Afternoon all.
Very quiet on here lately
An optimistic ew lucky 15 for me today
Casa Luna 4.25 Catt @ 33s
Showmethewayhome 3.35 Muss @ 25s
Yenillik 5.18 Belle @ 33s
Navigator Jack 5.48 Belle. @ 25
Small stakes obviously
Best of luck today
Garbage 😞
protest rally 5.05 well done all winners yesterday and today
fremantle doctor 5.18 ew
dancing green 5.40 ew
coisty 6.00 ew