Wednesday’s Racing Tips – koenigsstern looks of interest on chase debut for an in form stable

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Cairnzy took care of Tuesday's thread as I took a day off. His two runners didn't manage to get a win, with Rose Of Arcadia being the better of the two. His earlier selection at Exeter was weak in the market and ran accordingly. I think it's safe to say the Paul Nicholls yard isn't firing at the moment and it is probably best to steer clear of them until they find their feet.

I've tried to contact Cairnzy to see if he's posting for tomorrow but he hasn't got back to me and has been very busy with work, so I'm sure he'll update you in the comments if he putting any up.

Rizzel's Tips

Golden Ambition 15/8 – Fontwell 2.30

As far as competitive racing goes, this doesn't look to be that competitive. On all known form, only a couple of horses in this have a chance of winning this, and I think Golden Ambition has the best chance and I'm hoping his price holds up before this goes live.

My only small concern is the soft ground for Golden Ambition as he hasn't run particularly great on slow ground, but his form of last time out was a very big improvement on his older pieces of form and I am more than happy to take a chance on him. He has previously ran on soft ground over today's trip, he wasn't overly convincing, but last time out it was a sudden return to form and it looked like he would be better over further. He ran over the extended 2m 3f last time out, but was strong in the finish, so the extra couple of furlongs should be suited and the extra stamina that the soft ground brings out, could also be a lot better.

His handicap mark has since gone up a few pounds for his recent good effort over 2m 3f, but he still looks to be a decent enough handicap mark based on his pedigree, as he is related to two half-siblings, who have recorded RPRs in the low 120s at their peak.

Ben Pauling hasn't started the season as well as many probably thought he would, but it's a good thing that this horse has had a run out, as I think a fair few of Ben's horses have needed their first run to get up to speed.

koenigsstern 11/2 – Fontwell 3.00

I think it can pay dividends when backing horses from a yard that has just had a few winners from a small amount of runners, as it could be the start of a roll of results. Nick Gifford is the trainer I want to highlight as he is 2/5 in the last few days with his first set of jumps horses for the new season, and my eye was drawn to his runner in the 3.00 pm at Fontwell, Koenigsstern.

This is a much more competitive race to the one I have just spoken about, but this chase debutante from the Nick Gifford yard was one I was more than happy to take a chance on. This seven-year-old hasn't been highly tried over hurdles, and at face value, his form doesn't look fantastic, especially with the heavy defeat last time out. However, the time before that, he put in a decent shift and finished 3rd behind a couple of decent horses. The runner-up was a horse called HMS President who has only run once over hurdles but is still floating around the 100 mark on the flat, so you'd like to think he would turn into a decent hurdler. The winner is now rated 122 and has since been switched to Harry Derham's yard. There is other bits of decent form like finishing third, not too far behind Donnacha etc.

This horse has won twice in the PTP world from five attempts, so you'd like to think he can jump a fence based on him being able to get his head in front between the flags. The step up in trip and the slower ground, combined with fences could prove that he is on a very workable mark. The only issue is the hefty 12 stone he will be carrying around, but Nick Gifford had a winner for me on the weekend who also lumbered 12 stone on their chase debut, so it can be done.

Eurkash 4/1 – Fontwell 4.15

I think Eurkash is a dodgy pick as his strike rate is very poor, but I do think he has run some good races since moving to James Owen's and it is a matter of time before he gets in the winner's enclosure.

This is a poor race and I think it is a good chance for Eurkash to get a win. I have this race between Eurkash and Instant Gambler, who are closely matched from when the pair of them were first and second in Instant Gambler's first win of his hattrick of successes in September. The latter named horse won by 2L but has gone up massively in the weights since and the swing between the two is a big difference. Eurkash was 9lbs higher in the handicap when they met and now Instant Gambler is 6lbs higher, meaning there is a 15lb swing in the favour of Eurkash which is definitely more than enough for the 2L success he had. Obviously, Instant Gambler is now 3/3 over fences and is progressing and horse racing math doesn't always work out how you expect it to, but the amount of money which has been coming in for Eurkash since moving to James Owen, they must feel like he is on a very winnable mark and I think at the prices he has to be worth another try.

I am more than happy enough to ignore his recent run at Stratford over hurdles as he is 0/10 over hurdles and has never been in the top three, but he ran well for a long way in that race and would've traded quite short in the market as he travelling smoothly on the front end. Back over fences should see him in a better light and with Sean Bowen back doing the steering, that can only be seen as a positive.

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