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Sadly, yesterday followed a similar path to Monday, with Marsh Benham never getting seriously involved at Bath. In search of improved fortunes, I’m turning to the card at Kempton on Wednesday, where ahead of the final race, Apple A Dey appeals at the early odds.
| Kempton - 20:30 |
Apple A Dey |
11/1 |
Lightly raced, the filly showed little in the way of promise when returning to action over five furlongs at Windsor last time out, and on that basis, she’s not really one to get excited about.
However, with her being less than overly experienced, she likely needed the run following 201 days off, so it’s reasonable to feel that an improved showing could be on the way, especially as she returns to the venue where she ran with credit back in February.
Return to Kempton could spark success
In February, under today’s jockey Rab Havlin, the four-year-old took well to Kempton’s polytrack when racing in a maiden contest over five furlongs, running on well to take third, performing as if this step up to six furlongs would suit.
It’s not to be ignored that the two horses in front of her that day have both gone on to be rated a good bit better than this contest, with the horse in second, who beat her by just a neck, now rating more than 10 lbs above those in here.
Looking back to August of last year, she again placed over five furlongs, this time in Ireland, finishing behind a couple that have also proven to be better than this level. That sort of form is definitely interesting.
Very much a small-time trainer, Mark Hoad does have a few winners at Kempton, while Rab Havlin has ridden more winners for him than any other jockey, with the pair operating at a win/place strike rate of nearly 23%. Nothing to get too excited about, but it does tell us that the pair go close with nearly one in every four runners. That stat alone makes 11/1 look on the large side.
Ultimately, this is a weak contest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the filly got more seriously involved than early odds of 11/1 suggest, especially with her previous Kempton effort suggesting that she could quite easily be a little bit better than this lowly grade.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£24 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
