The sole bet of the day was with Rizzel as Windsor was abandoned. Origintrail ran her usual type of race but missed out on the places by small margins with the pace not collapsing and that saw the well-backed favourite run from the front and didn't see another rival.
August ended at: -17.222pts. This month and for the foreseeable the tracking will be individual due to Cairnzy chipping in with horses when he can.
Cairnzy's Tips
Be Proud 13/2 EW – Ayr 4.35
On paper, this race does not appear particularly strong, and the younger horses in the lineup do not inspire much confidence. That left me focusing on the two older horses, Muscika and Be Proud. Muscika is the market leader, but I believe Be Proud represents good value at odds of 13/2 against this field.
At first glance, my selections form figures don't appear too appealing but you can easily draw a line through his last run in the Silver Cup where he was sent of a 66/1 outsider and was up against it from the get go. Prior to his recent run, Be Proud has remained competitive ( beaten roughly by 2L in each of last 4 starts prior to his last run ) and the finishing positions arguably don't tell the whole story.
My selection tends to run well at Ayr, and is reunited with the inform Paul Mulrennan, who rode Be Proud to victory at this same course back in June. Notably, Be Proud is back down to his last winning mark which came in the race just mentioned, and he should be more at home back in these calmer waters against a field that is mainly out of sorts.
Rizzel's Tips
Fiddlers Green 7/1 EW – Bath 1.30
The opening race at Bath will probably be a race that not many would like to get involved in as it's probably one of the most competitive races of the day. Furthermore, it is an apprentice handicap which often throws up some dodgy results due to the inexperienced jockeys on board, but it's not enough to put me off from backing Fiddlers Green.
I'm not sure whether Attacanter stuck this horse up recently or briefly mentioned him, and I don't know what he is tipping up for today's Lucky 15 but I get the feeling he would've strongly looked into Fiddlers Green as there is a lot to like about this horse despite him not arriving in the best of form.
Fiddlers Green had a mid-season break from the middle of June and returned at the start of last month where he didn't run well, and the same comments can be applied on his second run a couple of weeks later at Wolverhampton. However, he is a 5-year-old and you cannot give up on him just yet. He has had a productive season, with three wins, two on the turf and one on the all-weather, so it's not like he has lost his ability to win races overnight and I think it's more of getting him back to peak fitness after his break and taking their time with him, as well as getting his handicap mark to drop.
He has never won off a mark this high (official rating of 60). but his wins off 56, which came back-to-back were very easy wins and had winning margins of 8.5L and 7.5L, with the last win coming in a Class 5 and on soft ground. Today's ground at Bath is soft and in relation to the level of horses he beat that day, compared to today's opposition, it bodes very well. The runner-up was a horse called Waxing Gibbous who is trained by David Menuisier and has since improved 15lbs in the handicap and has been second twice, including once in a 52K Class 2 handicap at York, as well as getting a win the time after finishing behind Fiddlers Green.
There are other good pieces of form before his break, such as the 5th/7 finish at Goodwood, 2.75L behind Miller Spirit, which looks like a good piece of form with that horse winning back-to-back times at Epsom, both in great style. Also, this is his third start after his break, which could be the right time to catch him as he won on his third time after his break at the start of the year. Millie Wonnacott takes the ride, and she is a very competent rider, mostly known for her jumping wins where she holds a 22% SR over the jumps, but she is equally as effective on the flat, just not getting the chances on the right horses.
Three Platoon 5/2 – Newcastle 5.00
I'm sticking with Three Platoon for my second selection of the day as he was a winning selection for me this time last week when well-supported in the market.
I was quietly confident of a big run last week with Three Platoon as sometimes you can get a feeling his was simmering from his previous races and it was the right time to catch him in a race which didn't look all that competitive. Today's race has a fair few more runners than last week's race but it doesn't seem to be full of horses who are ready to pounce of their current marks, and I had this between both of the winning horses coming into this race with Violeta the danger.
Last time out, Three Platoon did it with ease and Kaiya Fraser looked well-suited on this horse. Rebecca Menzies was full of praise for the jockey as he is a quirky horse and I think you could see that in the final furlong where he was idling and probably got to the front too soon as before that he was galloping all over his rivals, but it can only get to a point where the others in the race can take you so far and that's what happened with Three Platoon who eventually had to go forward and win his race, but by doing so he didn't do much in the finish and the winning margin makes it look closer than what it actually was.
He has been hit with a 5lb penalty, but it's actually a 4lb penalty if the websites I use are correct. He ran off a mark of 53 last time and has to run off 57 today, the 1lb which hasn't come into play is brought back as Kaiya has lost his 5lb claim which he used on Three Platoon last week, so he is effectively 6lbs worse off from last weeks win. That could be enough to stop people from wanting to back him as it is a quick turnaround, but as I've already mentioned, I think he won with plenty in hand and given he was a much better horse in the past, he can land the back-to-back course and distance wins for he hot partnership of Menzies and Fraser.
In December 2020 we sadly 
