Tuesday’s Racing Tips – No drama ahead for punters at Kempton

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Tomorrow's thread is going live a bit earlier than usual, so I can't comment right now on my last selection which is due to run at 7.20. I'll pop a comment in the comments section after the race is finished for those who like to read a brief analysis of our selections. 

Up to now, we managed to land one winner with Alfa Kellenic, who drifted out to 4/1 and managed to take the step up in class in his stride. Both of Rizzel's selections were a tad disappointing, in particular Young Fire who looks like a horse who will never win again despite falling down the weights.

Cairnzy's Tips

Bank On Kent 2/1 – Nottingham 3.15

Bank On Kent immediately caught my eye in this low-grade affair and has shown improvement in each run to date, he looks like a solid play to get of the mark in this contest.

It's always a risk tipping in low-grade racing and even more so when the field is filled with inexperienced two-year-olds. Regardless, Bank On Kent showed enough last time out at Pontefract to suggest he's improved enough from debut to finally get of the mark. Jockey Rossa Ryan has been booked to take this ride, which suggest a bold run is expected.

Bank On Kent has only had the four runs to date for trainer P D Evans, starting off on debut in a class 4 maiden at Bath which saw him finish 8/9. He wasn't fancied at all in the market that day ( sent of at 80/1 ) and it showed as he was very green throughout and found next to nothing when he came of the bridle. My selection then contested in another class 4 maiden at the same track, again finishing midpack in a larger 14-runner field. He again wasn't fancied in the market that day ( sent off at 28/1 ) but it was a much-improved effort from debut. He was disappointing once more in a class 4 seller at Chester when finishing 11/12.

My selection's most recent outing is the one that drew my eye. He finished runner-up at Pontefract last week in a class 6 and was only beaten by a nose to the well-fancied favourite Griselda. Griselda reopposes here and I feel my selection will improve past her to reverse the form. The remainder of the field with the exception of Toota who has shown very little, and they would need to improve markedly to get involved in my opinion.

Drama 10/3 – Kempton 7.30

Racing on Tuesday is pretty dire, but I have found a decent class 4 on the AW at Kempton that tickled my fancy and the James Ferguson trained Drama was the horse I fancied to come out on top.

The James Ferguson yard has been in decent nick this season, operating at 17% for the month of April and 15% for the month of June. He hasn't hit the numbers this month compared to the previous but it's still early days. Tom Marquand is an eyecatching jockey booking, he doesn't tend to run much for the yard but when he does he's operating at a 20% strike rate which can't be complained about.

Drama brings the best form to the table for this contest, his recent victory at Kempton on the AW in particular reads quite well. He beat the James Fanshawe-trained City House by a neck and that one went on to finish third in a class 2 handicap at Newcastle next time out. Drama was unlucky last time out also when going down by a neck to Waleefy at Newmarket. I wouldn't like to have seen what Drama was trading in play in the final few hundred yards as he had roughly 2L on Waleefy at that point. Tom Marquand threw the kitchen sink at him but he appeared to put the breaks on as they went towards the line which ultimately cost him the race. Waleefy looks a nice sort from the William Haggas yard and remains a lightly raced horse given he has only raced four times. Waleefy holds an entry to run at Newmarket this Saturday and it'll be interesting to see how he fairs.

In regards to the remainder of the field, Rose Applause looked like the main danger, with more improvement likely. The pair met during the Kempton outing which I've already touched on. Rosa Applause finished over a length down in third and still has a bit to find with my selection in my opinion.

Rizzel's Tips

Le Beau Garcon 9/2  – Nottingham 3.45

It will be interesting to see how bad the ground gets at Nottingham as they are expecting close to 20mm of rain, which should make the ground soft, if not heavy. Le Beau Garcon gets my vote in this competitive sprint Class 5 race.

My selection hasn't raced on soft many times, but the one time he did run on he finished 2nd/9, and his other efforts on good to soft have been okay, with the 4th/18 at York behind Copper Knight in a very competitive Class 4 sprint being the best of the bunch on that surface, so there is optimism that he'll be fine on the ground.

Le Beau Garcon will have to carry a clear top weight in this contest as the horses either side of him have got claimers on board, which does make life a bit tougher, but the form he has shown in better-graded races should show now he's back in a Class 5 race. He won last time out in a Class 4 when beating a good yardstick into second place, and the fourth-placed horse won on their next start.

It seems that the wind operation he had in the spring has worked very well, as he has only run twice this season on the back of the operation and that how resulted in a third-placed finish and a win. He is a five-year-old, but I wouldn't say he has had a tough career to date, with just 20 runs under his belt, and based on how he has run after the wind-op, there looks to be improvement to come with the Mick & David Easterby combination with Joanna Mason in the saddle proving to be in very good form this year on the turf, with a 15% SR and a profit of +44.28 to £1 level stakes.

Atlantic Gamble 6/5 – Nottingham 5.20

With the rain expected to turn Nottingham into a slog, having a soft ground horse is needed and I think the in form Atlantic Gamble can land the five-timer for the in form William Knight stable.

Atlantic Gamble has done nothing but improve since moving to handicaps and has managed to win four on the bounce, running career bests on every new start. Obviously, the more he wins the harder the next race is going to be, but based on how easily he won at Kempton last time out off a mark of 72, the handicapper hasn't quite caught up with him just yet. He is running with a 6lbs penalty, which is 4lbs higher than his Kempton win, which is effectively 9lbs higher as Brandon Wilkie who rode him last time out isn't on board today, but despite the big weight difference and with him carrying 10st 2lbs, he looks the one to beat in this race.

He has already proven that he handles the soft ground, with his win at Yarmouth on the soft. His pedigree suggests he will perform on this forecast ground as well as he is by Lightning Spear who was effective on a similar surface and his record with his progeny on soft reads well. His progeny is 4/9 on heavy ground and has a 13% SR on soft ground as well.

William Knight is having a good time of things, with five wins in the last fortnight and with Neil Callan taking the ride, that's not a negative as Neil has been one of William's go-to jockeys in the last five years.

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