I should have kept to my word and avoided the Christian Williams yard, as I have done for a few months.
The majority of his horses are blatant non-triers. Either the BHA aren't bothered, or the jockeys are good actors because nothing has ever been mentioned about it.
I Ain't Your Mate had some ace PTP form going into his chase debut today. He was second, by a neck, to the Supreme Novice ante-post favourite. You've also got a 130-rated chaser 6L ahead of him on his other PTP race. But, he is held up and ridden like he has no chance against 80-90 rated handicappers.
He'll win when the money is down. Whether that is next time or the time after, keep an eye out for him, as he'll be streets ahead of the handicapper when they really want to try.
Nae Bother At A' 28/1 (0.5pt EW) – Ayr 1.48
I think you could say that 5/2 is good odds on Kelvin Forlonge in this contest, as he won over C&D and is in good form. The others didn't really offer much in my opinion, so at a price I wanted to give Nae Bother At A' a chance on stable debut for Nick Alexander.
His stablemate is a much shorter price and has won twice from nine hurdle runs, so it's telling that Bruce Lynn (Stable jockey) opted for Nae Bother At A' instead.
Based on form from previous trainers, he has a lot to prove. Hopefully, the very testing ground and the change in trainer will be the key to unlocking some of his ability.
He is 7lbs out of the handicap, and is having his first run in 219 days, so there is a lot against him, but that's why you're getting the price he is. His price has dropped from 66/1 to 28/1, so there has been a small amount of money on him already.
Big Zouk 6/4 (2pt) – Ayr 2.48
Big Zouk is becoming very expensive to follow if you have been on him since he was with James Ewart. He was beaten at EVS on debut, and has been beaten at 9/4 on both his starts for current trainer, Nicky Richards.
His sole PTP win now looks fairly solid. The runner-up recently won at Exeter to make it two wins on the bounce over fences, and will likely be a 120-rated chaser when next assessed.
I watched his debut a couple of years ago, and at the time, I thought he looked like he needed three miles. He has raced over three miles, and he has flattered massively. Maybe he just needs a fence and three miles, as his PTP would suggest.
If he is ever going to win a race, this is one he can win, as outside of a couple of horses, this is a dreadful race.
He was comfortably beaten into third last time out, but the winner was well ahead of the handicapper. He has since won again off a higher mark and won that race with ease.
GambleAware