Invincible Nao ran well like last time, but his stamina didn't get him home.
That will be the last time I touch him over these extended trips, but I would be interested in him over 2m 6f or 3m, as he is a power traveller.
It's weird to think his stamina lacks at 3m 4f or further, as he won the Sussex National last year.
If you decided to back him each-way, you would've got a minute amount of profit, as he finished third.
Nine Nine Nine 10/1 (1pt) – Leicester 3.32
During the week, I think avoiding the lower-tier races is the way forward. In this case, I wanted to get involved as I thought Nine Nine Nine offers value at his current odds.
I can't have the Venetia Williams horse as favourite. The bookies are sticking him as the favourite based on the yard form over previous seasons, but it's not the same this year for whatever reason. I put Jeu d'Opale up in a Lucky 15 thread; he finished second, but he has never really looked like wanting this far.
The rest of the field have question marks hanging over their head, and apart from my selection, it wouldn't surprise me to see Kapamazov go close.
Nine Nine Nine doesn't win too often, but he runs this track extremely well. Both of his wins have been at Leicester off handicap marks of 87 and 83, over 2m 4f and 2m 6f. He has also been a runner-up at this course on three other occasions and third a further two times. This means he has only been outside the top three once when racing here.
We know he stays the trip. We know he handles the ground, and we know he is on a good handicap mark. There are virtually no negatives against him today. There could be a horse who bounces back to form like River Run Free, or a horse ahead of the handicapper like Kapamazov. At 11/1, I thought he was a solid option at the bottom of the weights.
Betsen 3/1 (1pt) – Newcastle 2.43
It is a tad risky backing Betsen on the back of his shock win in a Class 2 at Southwell at odds of 40/1, as it might have been a fluke. On the other hand, Tony Carroll is a very good trainer at bringing horses back to form and improving them from other yards, so I think he is a horse you can definitely back for this race.
He won on his stable debut in a very strong handicap. That is solid form, and they've not rushed him back, so I don't think he will bounce on the back of that performance.
The handicapper has taken a dim look at his win and has only raised him 2lbs in the handicap. Ryan Kavanagh takes over for the ride this time around, removing 5lbs, meaning he is 3lbs better off than for his win at Southwell.
Ryan is having a great start to the new year and has had five winners from 18 rides, equalling a 28% SR in the last fortnight.
GambleAware