Tuesday’s Racing Tips – Back So Sleepy at Lingfield on Tuesday

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Cairnzy hasn't been feeling great today, and as a result, will not be posting selections for Tuesday's racing. Cairnzy did happen to land the only winning selection on the thread yesterday, as Tommie Beau managed to see them all off from the front under top weight.

Tommie Beau is a cracking old horse, and nine times out of ten will give you everything he's got in the tank to win. Cairnzy's other selection was Shadow Army and he finished in last place. I didn't see the race myself, however, Cairnzy did message me earlier wondering why James Doyle didn't pull the horse up halfway through the race as he felt there was something wrong with the horse early doors. James Doyle did look down at his mount in the final furlong or so suggesting that something was wrong and he eased him off completely. My own two selections were both underwhelming, in particular High Velocity who was weak in the market throughout the day and never looked like winning.

Rizzel's Tips

Origintrail 8/1 EW 4 Places – Ripon 4.00

At a first glance, this race looks extremely competitive for a Tuesday handicap, but I don't think it's as strong as it looks on paper. I think you can easily write off the majority of the runners in this race, and just a handful should be capable of winning if they turn up in their best form. The one I latched onto was Origintrail who doesn't have the best winning rate as a racehorse, but she is consistent and probably should've been in the winner's enclosure more than what she has.

Her handicap mark has been floating around 78 and 77 for the best part of over a year, so you might think how does she win this race then? I think she has been unlucky in some of her races this year, and I think the opponents she has been behind are better than the ones she faces today. She can often break slow, which puts her on the back foot and then more problems occur because of that, like struggling for a clear run etc, but if it all drops right for her, she is more than capable of winning a race like today. The track seems perfect for her, she runs brilliantly at Ripon on nearly every run she has been here. Her record at this venue reads 1,2,2,11,3,2 which is a fantastic set of results, and she has been mightily unlucky not to add at least one more victory to that. She managed to finish 2nd in this race 12 months ago after having a disastrous race. She broke slow from the gates, was then keen throughout the first few furlongs then was denied a clear run on two occasions, and at that point, she had no right to get as close as she did but in the last half furlong she motored and managed to get to within 0.5L of the winner, who races in today's race (Twelfth Knight).

This year she has been in good form, she was 3rd in a Class 3 at this venue, was 6th/7 4L behind the winner in a Listed race over 5f (91 RPR), and then was 2nd/8 at Ripon on her latest start over 5f. For me, I think she is better over 6f on the back of a strong gallop, as over 5f she does her best work late in her race, and with a decent field size like today it looks like a perfect scenario, other than the high stall number which may mean she will struggle for a run, but there's no point worrying about that and not backing her because of that as it's in the lap of the gods.

So Sleepy 10/3 – Lingfield 7.38

There is a lot of racing on today as far as Tuesdays go, but it is really shoddy, especially the Musselburgh card. The majority of the Lingfield card looks a mess from a betting standpoint apart from the last race of the day where I thought So Sleepy offered decent value.

Diamond Dreamer and Notre Maison both come into today's race with recent wins under their belt, which has meant that So Sleepy has snuck into this race with fewer eyeballs on him. Obviously the two horses I've named have to be respected given that they are in good form at the minute, especially the first horse who has won three times this season, but I think that So Sleepy could run a big race now back on the all-weather and on a reduced mark.

So Sleepy is a much better horse on the all-weather than turf, as his record of 2/11 with three further placed efforts to just two placed finishes on the turf would suggest. This year he has run some okay races on turf, but he has always been better suited to the artificial surfaces, and due to a couple of poor runs his handicap mark has dropped from 63 at the start of the season to 56. His current handicap mark is the lowest it's been since his last win in October of last year which came off a mark of 57. He has run well off a mark of 63 when finishing as runner-up to the old legend, Boom The Groom, so based on those pieces of form, he is well handicapped. Today's track will be fine for him as he has finished close third and second on his two starts last year and he was 6/5F for his most recent run at this track which saw him put in a poor effort.

Oisin Murphy is an eye-catching jockey booking with him only having two rides for this yard, one being on this horse last year when finishing 3rd/10 just 0.25L behind the winner at odds of 10/1.

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