Thursday’s Racing Tips – Mercury Day can keep the Conrad Allen form rolling at Newbury

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Rizzel ensured it was a profitable day on the thread by landing a fantastic 12/1 shot in the shape of Game Breaker who got up towards the line to land the spoils in what was an action packed finish.

Ashariba landed the double for Rizzel. Tom Marquand was mustard on the Menuisier filly and took the bull by the horns and said sack that when Murphy tried to make it a tactical race from the front. He took the filly to the front a furlong before turning for home and managed to nick a few lengths, which proved to be the winning move.

I was lost for words in regards to the performance from Sea La Venus who was pushed along 3f from home. My selection was beaten by a total of 10L in the end and I'm not sure where they go with her next. One Glance was my other selection, and that one was far too keen through the race, which ultimately cost her any chance of winning.

Rizz fancies three horses for tomorrow, so I've dropped down to one selection for Thursday's racing to keep in format with the four selections per day. As usual, let us know in the comments section who you fancy for tomorrow's racing!

Cairnzy's Tips

Defence Minister 1/1 – Haydock 4.17

Defence Minister is short in the market at even money and although I understand even money shots are not for everyone, I feel he's a worthy enough favourite on paper to make it two from two in this contest. I expect the price to shorten from the time of writing so If you fancy laying the bet then I advise taking the price.

Owned by the powerful Wathan Racing team, Defence Minister wasted no time in getting off the mark when winning in impressive fashion on debut at Newmarket last month. Despite starting slowly and running greenly early on in the race, he showed clear signs of ability to bypass the field and win by three-quarters of a length. Defence Minister also overcame some trouble in running, having to be switched for a clear run under jockey Saffie Osbourne. Once in the clear, he was confidently ridden by Saffie and it was pretty much hands and heels all the way to the line. With race experience under his belt, Defence Minister is expected to improve significantly for the run and should be hard to beat in this contest. Jockey James Doyle takes over the reigns from Saffie Osbourne and the Doyler owes me one after his disaster of a ride on No Retreat recently!

The main danger in this small five-runner field looks to be the Karl Burke trained Arabian Angel who filled the runner-up spot on debut. Karl Burke's youngsters are always in good nick and that one to should come on for the run.

Rizzel's Tips

Poetic Jack 7/2 – Lingfield 4.00

With some decent racing for Thursday at the ‘bigger' courses I have surprised myself by latching onto a runner in a Class 6 0-58 race which is definitely not my usual type of race I find myself having a bet in. But, when you have a feeling about a horse, you've got to go for it.

Poetic Jack caught my eye in this very poor race at Lingfield and though I'm not as confident as I have been with previous selections over the last couple of weeks, I think he can win this race. The problem when having a bet in this type of race is that you often get gambles landed from out-of-form horses, so it's difficult to completely rule every horse out, but the best recent form on offer is without a doubt from Poetic Jack who was second by a short distance over this C&D a couple of weeks ago.

Robert Cowell's yard has hit a good level of form in recent weeks, and when combined with Ray Dawson this year they have been a real force to be reckoned with. Ray has always been a jockey that Robert has used, with him having the most runs for this stable in the last five years, but with Ray's ban and with him only returning this year the pair of them haven't combined up too much, until as of recent. Ray is 4/9 with a further two placed efforts for Robert Cowell this year, resulting in a profit of +19.48 to £1 level stakes, which saw them get a win at Chepstow a couple of days ago to boost it even further. Obviously, that is just stats and they look great on paper but the horse has to be able to back it up and I think he is handicapped to do so.

Poetic Jack might be better over slightly further as his sole win did come over 7f at this track late last year. However, his run at this course last time out shown that he is capable of winning races over 6f and he is now 4lbs lower than his sole winning mark, so I thought he deserved a shot.

Mercury Day 13/2 EW – Newbury 4.40

Conrad Allen is a trainer who goes under the radar and I doubt you even know who he is unless you're a hardcore racing fan, so his horses often get overpriced. I think that's the case with Mercury Day in this race.

Conrad has normally done better with his all-weather horses in recent years, but this season has seen his turf horses win a fair amount of races and it shows that when he gets the ammunition he can deliver. He hasn't had a runner at Newbury in the last five years, so it's interesting that he sends Mercury Day to this venue, given he tends to shy away from the big courses. Jim Crowley in on board and is 1/1 on Mercury Day and is 1/1 for Conrad this season, so it's a big plus that they've secured Jim Crowley for the ride, especially when Darragh Keenan who is one of the more used jockeys is at Newbury, so getting Jim back on is a statement of intent.

Newbury is expected to get a bit of rain throughout the day, with the more heavy stuff landing around 12pm, just before racing. The ground will more than likely change a few times in the going and it will not surprise me to see soft in the description in one way or another. My selection's winning form has come on good and good to firm, so that would be a concern to some but she was second on her second race start last year on heavy ground and her pedigree suggests she should be fine if the rain lands. She is by Time Test who handles soft ground, shown by his third-placed efforts in a Group 1 behind Hawkbill many years ago. Though the strike rates of his horses running on ground with juice isn't convincing, both of his top progeny have run their best races on heavy and good to soft. Mercury Day is also out of a mare you might remember called Midweek. She was a winner on heavy ground, placed in a Group 3 on heavy, so there is a fair amount to like if the rain gets in deep.

Conrad Allen's yard has hit a great bit of form recently, and he is 3/6 in the last fortnight which obviously shows how well he has his horses, but also how good he has been at placing his horses in the correct races.

Regal Envoy 7/1 EW (four places)- Newbury 7.10

Arguably my most rogue selection of the day is Regal Envoy who will have a fair amount to prove if the going gets very testing off top weight, but I can't get away from the booking of Brandon Wilkie and the fact he is coming down to Newbury.

William Knight when using Brandon Wilkie this year reads 10 winners from 27 runners, with a further five being in the top three, producing a profit of +40.63 to £1 level stakes which is absolutely insane for a 5lb claimer. Brandon goes to Newbury for two rides, but he is winless for Stuart Williams and has clearly made the trip for William Knight's horse. He is a jockey who is based in the north and I think he is part of the Karl Burke stable, so his intent to travel this far when having that strike rate for William Knight makes this horse worth a shot.

Regal Envoy has had a decent enough season, with two wins, mixed in with a few honking efforts, but he returned to form last time out at the Racing League meeting to finish 2nd, producing an RPR of 88 which was +9lbs to his rating at the time. The handicapper has stuck him up a pound for that race, but Brandon Wilkie is back on board and knocks it back down by 5lbs, so he is effectively lower than when he last won off a mark of 77.

Going back to the going, the mare won on good to soft and his sire Ardad won a Listed race on soft ground, so I'll take a chance that he'll be fine.

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