Thursday’s Racing Tips – A winning chase debut looks likely for the Skelton-trained Illico De Cotte

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Golden Ambition started the day off well, winning at a drifted price of 9/4, but there was a 15p rule 4, so if you managed to get B.O.G that countered the drift.

The other two selections finished as runner-ups but didn't have enough in the tank to push the winners who both extended up the hill at Fontwell.

Rizzel's Tips

Illico De Cotte 7/4 – Carlisle 2.55 (2pt)

I don't like tipping up short-priced horses, but sometimes you can make an exception, and I think Illico De Cotte on chase debut is one.

This five-runner field doesn't appear to be the best quality of races, and for a newcomer over fences, it looks like a nice opportunity to get a win on the first time of asking. The form of the Dan Skelton yard isn't as strong as it probably should be for this time of year, which has to be the biggest question for today's race, but in terms of form, I do rate Illico De Cotte to have the best, and he fully deserves to be carrying top weight in this contest.

I have not seen Illico De Cotte's PTP run from before he moved to Dan's yard, but going off the winning margin and how the runner-up has progressed since moving to rules racing, it looks like this move to fences could be the real start to this lad's career. He didn't blow them away over hurdles but showed enough to suggest he has a fair amount of ability, but the 12L victory on his sole PTP outing looks solid. The runner-up is currently with the Olly Murphy stable and is rated 119 over hurdles, so for him to be smoked by such a margin by Illico De Cotte, you'd like to think this horse could rate in the 130s at the very minimum, so today's opposition shouldn't be too much of a concern.

The Killahena & McPherson trained horse is the one to be wary of as he is 1/1 over fences and the runner-up has somewhat franked the form since, but he did make mistakes that day and against tougher opposition (my selection), he should get found out. As for the others, you have Ballydisco who is 0/5 over fences and has since changed owner and stables, which doesn't bode well, but could obviously see a different level of form if they can find the key to him. Elleon is a steady horse who is very experienced, and you know what you get from him, which is him staying on strongly, but surely he is far too exposed for a newcomer like the Skelton horse. The bottom weight is 0/2 over fences and doesn't appear to be on a good enough mark to do any damage.

Shirocco's Dream 9/1 EW – Ludlow 3.20

Going with Shirocco's Dream does leave me vulnerable to the improving, less exposed horses, but I think she is worth a chance on a handicap mark which gives her every opportunity of getting the win.

Shirocco's Dream is versatile when it comes to ground, but she has recently shown a liking towards the better ground, so the good ground at Ludlow is deemed as positive in my eyes. Like many in this race, she has to prove her well-being after having plenty of time off the track with the Tizzard stable opting not to have a proper summer campaign. However, the yard is in good form at present and this horse has a decent strike rate when returning from a break, so I think she can be trusted to go well first time out.

Joe Tizzard has two running in this race, and I think Brendan Powell is still the main jockey for the yard, despite Freddie Gingell behind the nephew of Joe, so I'd like to think he has picked the right one of the two, and I'm hoping they have been told not to take each other on at the front end of the race as I am hoping that Brendan does go to the front on Shirocco's Dream and tries to nick a lead from the others, as when in a rhythm, she can be a tough nut to crack.

The handicap mark gives her every chance to win this race. She is running off a mark of 106, which is 2lb lower than when she made a winning return last year and is 1lb lower than when she won on her first chase start after a short break.

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