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Kinako Mochi ran out a ready winner for the Roger Varian stable with Jack Mitchell doing the steering. He looks like a nice novice going places and one to keep an eye on for the future.

Banderas was given far too much to do at Kempton, he came with a strong finishing effort under William Buick but was positioned in the wrong place when the race got into top-gear. The same comments can be applied to Rizzel's unlucky loser on Dancing Tango who broke out of the gates like a snail and had to sit in last place until turning for home. The mare made up a great amount of ground down the outside and looked to have a great chance, but she didn't have enough under the bonnet to get past the Aidan O'Brien ‘second' string, with 14lbs separating the front two, which was clearly a big factor.

Cairnzy's Tips

Bold Style 5/1 – Newmarket 4.45

There is some cracking racing at Newmarket on Thursday which is nice to see given the last couple of days or so have been utter rubbish in terms of quality.

I like the look of Bold Style for trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick. The two horses I narrowed this race down to was the current favourite Lead Artist and Bold Style. Both are trained by trainers who are having off seasons with most of their horses running below par, in particular their top horses in the bigger races. Regardless, it's hard to look past the two in the market just mentioned as they both bring solid form to the table.

I thought the Gosden-trained Lead Artist was a tad short in the market at 15/8. She arrives on the back of a four-and-a-half-length victory at York in a class 2. I'll not beat around the bush, she looked impressive that day in the way she went about her business but I don't think she beat much in terms of quality. Only six went to post, two of which were sent off at 66/1 and 100/1. Dark Tornado and First Conquest who finished third and fourth have flattered to deceive this season and in no way boost the form of that victory. Under Siege who finished second was the only horse who boosted the form. Under Siege finished second on debut to Economics from the William Haggis yard who has since gone to win a Group 2 at York. The quality of that Group 2 contest was pretty poor on paper with most of the field going on to run poorly on their following runs at Ascot and Epsom.

For the reasons mentioned above, I'll roll the dice with Bold Style who looks the value play at 5/1 to upset the short-priced favourite.
I think Bold Style brings the most solid form to this contest. My selection beat Space Legend at Chelmsford on the AW in the backend of last year. Space Legend recently finished second in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, going down by 6L to the eventual winner Calandagan. Now, I don't follow the French side of racing much but Calandagan has won multiple times at Group level so the form of the second reads well on paper. My selection returns to a mile after being dropped to 7f for his previous two runs. The step back up in trip should suit Bold Style as he has previous form over the distance from last year. He has also been gelded which should hopefully allow him to improve that little bit further.

Sergeant Wilko 10/1 EW – Newmarket 3.00

My last selection for Thursday comes in an open 6f handicap that cases can be made for many. Probably not the ideal race to have bet but with Bet365 offering 5 places, I simply couldn't let Sergeant Wilko go unnoticed at a double-figure price.

The ground conditions are currently on the soft side of things so finding a horse who handles the conditions will be key, especially at Newmarket, which can be a tough course for horses.

The Kevin Ryan trained Sergeant Wilko ticked a lot of boxes for me when it came to picking a horse for this race and I thought he was overpriced at 10/1 at the time of writing. My selection is proven on testing ground conditions having already won on heavy at Thirsk on his second start as a two-year-old. He was then thrown into the deep end in some tough races at Sandown and Ascot, both of which were at listed level and on unfavoured good ground which he has yet to race on since.

Towards the end of last year, my selection ran in a couple of nursery handicaps and disappointed on both occasions. It was a surprise to see Sergeant Wilko not progress in those sorts of races, however, he had his fair share of running for a two-year-old and can easily be forgiven for those efforts. Connections then gave him a break over the winter and he returned to the AW at Newcastle in March with an impressive 4L victory over Artistic Mission. He then disappointed at Thirsk when getting his favoured soft ground but that was over 5f rather than his favoured 6f and again, I'll draw a line through that effort. He bounced back to winning ways last time at Leicester when sent back up in trip to 6f. Sergeant Wilko will have conditions in his favour tomorrow and the booking of Oisin Murphy is an eye-catching one.

Rizzel's Tips

Special Wan 9/4 – Leopardstown 6.15

It seems to be a miracle in Dublin as Leopardstown has managed to escape the horrendous weather that the UK and a lot of Ireland have had over the last few days, and the ground is deemed to be racing as ‘good'. They are expecting a small amount of rain, but nothing torrential and the going might change to good to yielding as they are expecting just over a millimetre to fall.

With just four runs under her belt, Special Wan looks like the one to be on for this Group 3 race for Fillies and Mares. Thomas Foley's four-year-old daughter of Belardo has improved from every run and her most recent runner-up finish behind a Ger Lyons gelding who produced an RPR of 112 to beat her by head is the best recent form on offer in today's race. I am a big fan of fillies/mares who prove themselves against the boys and then come back to race against their own sex, as 99% of the time, the male races are stronger and tougher to win, so the fact that this lightly raced mare has been going close when running against the geldings shows that she is in tremendous form and should find today's race an easier assignment.

The ground will not be an issue for this mare as she was second on good to yielding ground last time out and was a winner on debut on yielding to soft ground.

In terms of the opposition, nothing really concerns me as a main threat. You have Jumbly who always seems to be well-fancied in her race but never really delivers the promise that the betting punters think she can. Joseph O'Brien's mare is dropping back to 7f for the first time in a little while, so that could help her and be an angle for a punt, but not for me. The three-year-olds get the weight for age allowance and have to be respected because of that, but the form they've all shown isn't anything to be raving about and I think they will struggle to beat my selection, even with the weight pull they get.

Ain't Nobody 5/1 – Newmarket 2.25

This is a cracking race for the two-year-old colts and geldings over 6f, running on the soft Newmarket July track. It is probably missing a few names who ran at Royal Ascot, but for the most part, the main hitters are turning up.

Though I wasn't part of the team for Royal Ascot, I was a supporter of Whistlejacket in the Norfolk Stakes as he put in a monstrous performance the time before, but at Royal Ascot, he took a lifetime to hit top gear. He didn't run terribly at Royal Ascot, but when one of Aidan's gets backed off the board like Whistlejacket did, you're expecting them to return to the winner's enclosure, but he might've found the ground too quick, for that type of distance. He will prefer the slower surface today, and despite his fast finishing run at Royal Ascot, this is a totally different race over 6f on soft ground on a stiff track.

For me, Ain't Nobody has to be the bet for this race for the Kevin Ryan stable which continues to roll out top-class sprinters. He's had the likes of Brando, Hello Youmzain and Glass Slippers in recent years and Ain't Nobody looks to be the new flag bearer for the stable. This horse was so impressive at Royal Ascot as he strongly fancied and he did his backers justice when romping home in the Windsor Castle Stakes under a fast-finishing Jamie Spencer. This colt is by Sands Of Mali who was a Group 2 winner as a juvenile and it looks like this horse has followed in his father's footsteps of being a precocious youngster. His father was very effective on soft ground (won Group 1 on soft), and given this lad won on good to soft on his debut at Carlisle, I get the impression the soft ground he'll be encountering for the first time will not be an issue. The way he finished at Royal Ascot also looked like a horse who will be equally as good over a furlong further, and his dad was a winner over 6f on many occasions, so this looks like a lovely next step before Group 1 honours.

Horse Racing Tips
Bold Style
Newmarket - 4:45 pm

5/1 @ Bet365

Sergeant Wilko
Newmarket - 3:00 pm

10/1 EW @ Bet365

Special Wan
Leopardstown - 6:15 pm

9/4 @ Bet365

Ain't Nobody
Newmarket - 2:25 pm

5/1 @ Bet365

11 Comments
  1. elvis parsley 2 weeks ago

    Rosa salvaje 12-40 clairefontaine 🇫🇷 2-1 🏇.

    This looks a 2 horse race and the 4-7 favourite is that because it’s a Frankel trained by fabre and ridden by barzalona.
    Rosa salvaje win a 13 runner affair on debut and could be anything.

    1
  2. hibee1 2 weeks ago

    Few nice stats as always for people to have a quick look at. Should be useful even if not for today.

    Cypriot Diaspora 3.20 Carlisle

    Only runner on the card for the stable today. They hardly ever send them up here. Must be close to 800 mile round trip from Devon. Yard have only had 4 runners here in total, 50 %strike rate with 2 from 4. Over the last 5 seasons they’ve sent 1 runner here which won.
    31% strike rate with their 3 year old so far this season with 9 winners from 29. From the last 7 three year old runners they have had 4 winners.
    33% strike rate for the yard in the last 2 weeks with 5 from 15. 10 from 40 over the last 30 days.
    Joanna Mason has a 50% strike rate for the yard with 3 wins from 6.
    Looks really progressive sort. Always running on in the final furlong brings confidence for the stiff uphill finish here at Carlisle. This yard are shrewd when they send 1 runner on a long trek sosurely they think this will go close today.
    Opening show was 3/1, currently 7/2. Haven’t got involved yet, expected it to be slightly bigger so just hoping it drifs out at some point today. If it does so may consider top 2 finish.

    All the best today and rest of the week

    3
    • hibee1 2 weeks ago

      5 of the last 8 runnings of this race at Carlisle were won by 3 year olds.

  3. hibee1 2 weeks ago

    Quick mention…a gentleman has kindly posted some really nice looking stats on yesterday’s page for today’s racing at Newmarket. Worth a look back if you were betting there today

    3
  4. ew thief 2 weeks ago

    Two tribes 3.00n 9-1☘️☘️gl all

    1
  5. azzthewigan 2 weeks ago

    ozat 1.15 France well done all winners yesterday

    3
  6. Gateacre Pete 2 weeks ago

    Snazzy Jazzy ew 25s top 4
    GL

  7. elvis parsley 2 weeks ago

    Newmarket
    2-25 billboard star
    11-4 top 2 finish HILLS
    EVENS top 3 finish BETFAIR
    20-80 stake

    3-00 brave empire
    9-4 top 5 finish SKYBET 🏇 NAP 🏇

    3-35 time lock
    9-4 betting without Hamish and arrest bet365

    3-35 time lock

    1
  8. azzthewigan 2 weeks ago

    pear of wisdom 4.10 ew well done all winners today

  9. azzthewigan 2 weeks ago

    bubbling 5.10 ew

  10. recoba 2 weeks ago

    🇺🇸

    Saratoga -Race 9…Salute The Stars 7/1 EW **** Bet365

    Well done to any winners today

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