January wasn’t exactly a vintage month for the ‘Nap of the Day’, there’s no getting away from that. Unfortunately, when you’re trying to go against the grain and offer something a little different, pinpointing bigger-priced selections, that is sometimes the way it goes. Still, four out of five profitable months isn’t bad. Let’s see what February brings.
| Doncaster 14:45 |
Luttrell Lad |
8/1 |
I’ve kept quiet until Thursday this week, meaning that today’s bet will be the first of the month. We’re off to Doncaster, where ahead of the 14:45 race, a Class 3 handicap hurdle over an extended two miles and three furlongs, Luttrell Lad appeals at the prices.
Out of form for a while, this runner has dropped to what may just be a lenient handicap mark, while he has what must be described as his ideal race conditions to tackle this afternoon, so don’t be too surprised if he goes well.
The gelding has shown positive form in better races than this
OK, sure, for a while, Tom Lacey’s runner has failed to fire, though he’s never been one to go well fresh, so I wouldn’t pay too much attention to his reappearance effort at Kempton, while he definitely stepped forward last time out, finishing fourth in a better race than this, for which a 2 lb drop in the handicap may just be a tad generous.
One of the horses he beat home last time out has since gone on to finish second in a more competitive race than this, which bodes well.
What also bodes well is his most recent effort over C&D. Just over a year ago, the gelding finished third (of 13), doing so from 9 lbs higher in the handicap. Such an effort is positive in relation to today’s slightly lesser contest.
Tom Lacey has been in decent form of late, while he also does fairly well at Doncaster, boasting a career win/place strike rate of just over 48% at the Yorkshire venue. That tells me that, at the very least, he’s no mug when it comes to preparing horses for races at this track.
It’s also worth mentioning that in finishing a not-too-far-away fourth at Kempton last time out, this horse generated a speed rating that is easily superior to anything produced by today’s rivals last time out. For my money, that’s another box ticked.
Last but certainly not least, from five runs at Class 3 level or worse, from a mark of 123 or less, Luttrell Lad has four wins and a second to his name. That cannot be ignored.
In summary, this well-handicapped type seemingly has plenty going for him here, at least more so than odds of 8/1 suggest, so he goes down as a value bet.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 89 Naps) has a running P/L of -£15.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
