I ended last week with Sunday’s Nap, which returned a little bit of each-way money, with Game On, advised at 9/1, taking third at Downpatrick.
| Aintree - 16:40 |
Inedit Star |
50/1 (each way, 4 places) |
This week, I’ve kept my powder dry until the opening day of the Grand National Festival at Aintree, ahead of which, I like one at a huge price in the penultimate race, a high-quality handicap chase over two miles.
Inedit Star hasn’t exactly proved much yet, and I’m certainly not suggesting that he’s one of the most likely winners of this contest. However, I am suggesting that for a few reasons, he could easily be shorter than mammoth odds of 50/1, so there may just be a chunk of each-way value to be had. For my money, there is.
A winner over timber in France, the seven-year-old comes into this contest as a rather lightly-raced sort having had just five chase starts since arriving on British shores, but he’s gone close on a couple of occasions, including over course and distance.
Rare Aintree glory for Nick Kent?
Certainly a small-time trainer, Nick Kent has been far from prolific at Aintree. In fact, he’s never had a winner at the Merseyside venue, failing to hit the board with 12 previous darts, so there’s certainly no angle there.
However, his horses do tend to go quite well under Tom Broughton, who may not have ridden a winner for Nick Kent in the last 12 months, but who does have a 36.6% place strike rate for this trainer. That’s not bad at all. The claim of that rider also leaves this one to sit right at the foot of the weights.
Moreover, it must be said that the unexposed gelding ran well over course and distance back in December. Sure, it was only a three-runner race and he finished third, but he was beaten less than two lengths by the winner, losing out to the runner-up by a short head. That runner up has since won the Greatwood Gold Cup Chase at Newbury, which is far from dissimilar to this in terms of prestige. Such form should be noted in my book.
Is it crazy to put up a 50/1 shot? Possibly. Is reading this a waste of time? Probably. Anyway, if like me, you’re looking for something at a big price on the opening day of this three-day festival, then give this lad a go. 50/1 looks a bit chunky. Even if he sneaks into the four places, it’ll be a lovely little payday at those odds. If he’s tailed off, which is a distinct possibility, the world will keep spinning and it’ll soon be tomorrow.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 108 Naps) has a running P/L of -£84.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
March 2025 = -£79.00
GambleAware