Thursday’s Lucky 15 tips – Selections from Huntingdon, Newcastle, and Lingfield

I am back to give the guys some brief respite by covering the Lucky 15 thread today and also this coming Saturday. I haven't been overly involved since the daily L15 thread came to an end in November, but did manage two winners a fortnight ago so we'll hope for more of the same with my Thursday's Lucky 15 tips. Olly Murphy and Antony Brittain were the two trainers left on the cutting room floor.

Attacanter's Tips

Timetoshine 5/1 – 13.45 Huntingdon

Nicky Henderson's yard showed signs of life yesterday as the Cheltenham festival draws ever closer, with two winners that accompanied a 2nd from his three runners, which was a very nice return and enough for me to take note.

I haven't dug too deep with his other runners so perhaps Timetoshine isn't his best hope today but it is the newcomer I've landed on in what looks a trappy, competitive affair. As you'd expect, value is thin on the ground with the bookies taking no chances. It isn't ideal that the horse is yet to jump an obstacle in public after starting out on the flat, but she's in great hands and the 7lb allowance certainly helps.

Although the yard aren't overly prolific here, their record in maidens is quite decent with 3 winners and 2 runner-ups from just 6 rides at the track over the last two years. To cap that off, their 3 most recent runners at the track have all won similar contests, all within the last month which sounds very promising. The yard also landed me a nice winner on my last outing here so nothing is owed.

Blue Bellamy 9/1 – 15.05 Lingfield

The Bandey/Bannister combination aren't overly noteworthy, but over the years have done me enough favours to always give them a once over. In the last 12 months, the trainer had only 6 winners from 81 runners, however over the last 12 days, the combo are 3 from 5 which has lead me to chancing their only runner today.

I was looking to select a Murphy/Bowen runner and somehow have ended up taking them on. They likely hold a strong chance with one of theirs today, but in sticking with tradition it is Blue Bellamy that gets the nod in what looks a wide open contest of lightly raced horses with plenty to prove.

Only a purist will have much grasp on such a race, but this horse has some decent experience from his consistent efforts to date, albeit mainly in bumpers. Last time was his first try hurdling on heavy around 2 miles at Lingfield, he finished 5 lengths behind the current market leader Drayton Flyer which would typically discount him but despite no pull in the weights, we do at least get some kind of price.

I am hoping the decisive factor is the fact this race is a significant step up in trip and although the sire isn't overly prolific, he has had plenty of success over 3 miles, which can't be said for Lauro, sire of the market leader. Clearly that isn't worth much, a horse can be trained to run 2 miles or 3 miles easily enough, but given most of his progeny were 2 milers, we'll take that as a positive and throw him in.

Sugar Baby 3/1 – 17.30 Newcastle

Peter Niven is a dual purpose trainer who runs a small operation out of Malton, North Yorkshire. He typically contests around 60-70 flat races per year, operating at around 10% and he popped onto the radar due to his recent form, sending out 3 winners from his last 8 runners equating to 37.5%.

I have sided with this runner long before the market has formed. As some of you will have read, I don't like to follow winners as I typically believe yards cash in at this level and a bounce is far more likely than a follow up. Having said that, this aging sprinter was winning here just 12 days ago and has surely been left ticking over nicely.

I feel confident we'll see another honest effort and Alex Voikhansky's 3lb claim ensures Sugar Baby's mark remains unchanged. He has been on the horse before which is a positive, finishing a short head 2nd over C&D at the end of 2022. With plenty of younger C&D winners in the field lurking on workable marks, going back-to-back will be difficult enough, but the horse has done it before and within the context of a L15 bet, I rate it as a worthy inclusion.

King's Crown 13/2 – 20.30 Newcastle

This is another horse I selected before a market was formed. I did expect Rebecca's Girl to be a strong favourite, but the bookies have opened her up at a really skinny price. She will be hard to beat and now having seen the market, it does look ominous for my selection, but there'll be a day in mine soon enough and I am happy to start chancing early. That is also despite the trainer having an utterly abysmal start to the year last season, winless in February and March.

What I've latched onto is the fact Rebecca's Girl is on a hattrick, yet the jockey hops off to ride my selection for his stable — either he isn't able to claim his full 7lbs, the horse isn't going to win, or his stable simply want him aboard their entry. I am not sure, but it is odd at least, and enough for me to punt. With that said, she does have a lot going for her since she's a C&D winner off 53 to start the month before being upped a furlong to win over 7f rated 61. That stamina will help and the fact she's 4lbs lower than last time in this bottom of the barrel race makes her backable.

King's Crown was seen just 6 days ago, going 3rd under Billy Loughnane rated 60 and having won in January off 3lbs lower again under Loughnane. It is only recently the horse has been trying 6f more often, so he's another that should be suited to the tough finish. He drops into a Class 6 rated just 53, which at the price, despite reservations for the outright win, is just about enough value to include. One glimmer of hope is the fact the last 3 runners from the yard here have all placed at this track.

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