Sunday’s Racing Tips – Don’t stop Believing at Longchamp

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

Fair to say I got it completely wrong with Go Athletico who was horrendous at Ascot despite having ground conditions to suit. Inspiral ran a good race but couldn't peg back the front runner who went through the race like the best horse in the race.

Inspiral probably would've made it a much closer finish if she wasn't so keen throughout the entire race, but that's racing and goes to show that even the older, more mature horses are hard to predict.

Rizzel's Tips

Believing 7/2 – Longchamp 2.05

Could this finally be the day when Believing manages to grab her much-deserved Group 1 success? I hope so as she is carrying my money again.

It has been a painful watch for Believing backers over the last 12 months, especially the last two runs in the Nunthorpe and then the Flying Fives at the Curragh as on both occasions Believing has been drawn on the wrong side of the track, against the pace bias and the better part of the track for the ground. On both occasions, she has finished as the bridesmaid, but now she has her chance to land her maiden Group 1 in a race where they (should) go towards the low stall side and race up the rail, which means there will be no groups and no pace bias, which should see the best horse win unless getting no run, obviously.

It could be very foolish to go against Bradsell who has returned from his injury in fantastic form, beating Believing on both of those recent starts. He has always been a very good sprinter, but what Archie Watson has done with him to get him back to his best, and potentially even better is remarkable.

The ground should be fine. Despite what the racing outlooks are saying which is being soft ground, it's not. The ground is good on the sprint track and they are expecting less than a millimetre of rain so it shouldn't change anything, which makes it fair to all and there is no excuses on the ground from Believing's standpoint.

She is drawn in 5 so if she breaks well she should be able to get a good position, hopefully not on the rail behind the leaders as that is going to see a troubled passage. Billy Loughnane is back on board and it's nice to see Billy get an opportunity in a race like this as he is more than capable of showing his skills at the highest level.

Shin Emperor 13/2 – Longchamp 3.20

I don't know if it's just me, or if anybody else thinks this is not a vintage Prix De L'Arc renewal. Obviously, there are some fantastic horses taking their place, with many Group 1 winners turning up, but I don't get the same type of buzz from years in recent years. Perhaps I'm talking nonsense, which is hardly shocking news.

It would be a memorable win for the Japanese if my selection, Shin Emperor was to win this as it would be the first horse hailing from a yard in Japan to win the race. In my opinion, he has a great chance of winning this if getting the splits at the right time, which might not be too easy for him as he is drawn in stall 11 of 16.

Unlike the Japanese horses who have tried to win this race in the past, this horse is actually a European-bred horse, bred in France just 200km away from today's track. Japanese-bred horses tend to need fast ground, but the good to soft ground for Shin Emperor should hold no problems for him as he is in fact one of the best-bred horses for today's race as his full-brother, Sotstass won this race back in 2020, and he handled all conditions, including with the Arc on heavy ground. So, he is bred for the trip, ground and the track.

He has been aimed at this race all year long with just one run prior to this which came at Leopardstown on Irish Champions weekend. In terms of prep runs, he couldn't have gotten much better than his third-place finish over 10f behind Economics and Auguste Rodin, who are both tremendous horses, and for him to go that close to that calibre of horse after 100+ days off the track was a great effort, and it didn't exactly go to plan. He was quite keen throughout the race, then got a little short of room and had to be switched slightly in the final furlong to get a run, and when he did he was closing on the leaders, so the step up to 12f should be ideal for him.

Ylang Ylang 7/2 – Longchamp 4.05

I have always been a big fan of Ylang Ylang and I still believe she is a very good horse, hence why I'm keeping the faith with her for this Group 1 race.

For the life of me, I don't know why Aidan has been persisting with Ylang Ylang over a mile. To my eyes, she has never looked like a miler! But who am I to question the greatest ever trainer that's ever lived?

Ever since last year when she won the Fillies Mile at Newmarket, I saw her as a middle-distance horse and I backed her for the Oaks antepost straight after. This season she shaped like the longer trips would be highly beneficial after her fifth in the English 1000 Guineas. For some reason, she didn't quite turn up to Epsom, but you can easily put a line through that as Epsom is a quirky track and not all horses take to it. Since then, she has been kept over a mile, which is why I haven't been backing her, but now she is over 10f I think she is worth a bet in a race which doesn't look out of the world.

Last time out she finished fourth in a Group 1 on Irish Champions weekend, behind Porta Fortuna and Fallen Angel who was in second place. She was outpaced, which is hardly a shock, but stayed on in the final stages and was only 1.5L behind the winner and 0.5L behind Fallen Angel who races here today.

This is her opportunity to show what ability she has, and if she doesn't quite manage it then I'll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong.

Horse Racing Tips

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media