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Having been well backed, after taking an age to get going, Mokaatil ran on well up the inside to take third at Chelmsford last night, proving that early odds of 16/1 were indeed on the generous side.
| Aintree - 15:35 |
Long Draw |
7/2 |
On Sunday, I like the look of Long Draw at Aintree, whose handler may just have found him the right sort of opening after a couple of encouraging placed efforts at Worcester and Warwick.
Second in a Class 3 last time out, we shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the unexposed gelding in this Class 2. After all, this is far from the deepest field of its type, while it’s likely that he’ll have a fitness edge over several of these.
The early favourite looks easy to oppose
Bowenspark is the early favourite but I’m not sure that his form adds up to much, while I’d argue that he’s not that generously handicapped either. In contrast, Long Draw probably hasn’t reached his ceiling.
Olly Murphy’s record at Aintree is far from displeasing, while his runner here rates very highly in terms of recent speed figures, which for my money, is not something to easily ignore.
In recent weeks, Murphy’s runners have been dangerous to oppose, with the trainer winning with a chunky 31% of those entered in the last fortnight. He’s also been in rather formidable form with Sean Bowen in the saddle too.
As I’ve said above, for a Class 2 this doesn’t look too strong, several are racing from career-high marks having won worse races than this at some point in the not so distant past, while several are returning off the back of lengthy breaks and thus may need the run.
I’m happy to say that, from the bottom of the weights, this five-year-old should be a narrow favourite in my view. If he went off as a 9/4-5/2 favourite, I’d say that would be about right all things considered. Therefore, taking odds of 7/2 offers us a slice of value for money.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day, after 48 Naps, has a running profit and loss of +£0.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
You should of kept those £10 a day and saved it you would now have £480 in your back pocket and if this was your running profit now you would be over the moon would nt you and be screaming how amazing you are and it’s the same story for most gamblers . Following tipsters is just mugs following mugs 😂😂
It’s not overly clear from your comment, so just to clarify, you do understand that if someone had put £10 on each of the 48 Naps (up until today) they wouldn’t have lost a penny, yes? Effectively, anyone betting £10 on each of the Naps would have started with £480 and they’d still have £480. Therefore, to use your saying, they’d still have the “£480 in their back pocket”.
Also, to be clear, £10 level stakes is a simple and easy-to-understand way of tracking the profit and loss. I’m not telling anyone to place a £10 bet on each. People are free to bet as much or as little as they want.
Just goes to show does nt it . 48 shots at goal and you walk away with nothing yes you’ve not lost but you can see the pattern your just going to go round and round in circles but your not as bad as some . I suppose only you know what your life time profit and loss is and I’m sure your back in work 2 Moro like the rest of us .
I do this full time, writing about sports betting in a variety of contexts for a living. I work from home.
Fair play if you can make a living from it beats working for a living ha . Hope you manage to get your followers plenty of money in time for Xmas 🎅
To much to bet on impossible to win . I went town moor Donny 5min from my house some years ago on ledger week on a works corporative thing(white tents oppositeain stands) ..included was a private tipster ! He came round gave us a tip (ski jump) and was 4/6 odds on!(So some tip haha ) Got smashed like 4th in a 6 runner race lol. Nobody can tip what a animal will do it’s gonna do what it wants.
I’m just going to start chucking more money on hookers I never feel like I’ve wasted my money then 😂😂