It's been a long time since we had a good Lucky 15, but Saturday's wasn't bad with 3/4 winning.
Jeriko Du Reponet 13/2 (2pl) – Windsor 1.20
I was very tempted to give a chance to Jeriko Du Reponet on the main page, but doubts about whether they're attempting to get his handicap mark down was enough to make me swerve him.
However, I think he is a good price for the Lucky 15, and if they are trying with him this time, he could make a surprise.
He was best over 3m last season, so I'm hoping the return to this trip will be what he wants. He wasn't given a tough time at Kempton, and the same can be applied to his run at Wincanton. I think they have noticed that the handicapper isn't budging on his handicap mark, so they've said ‘sack it' and stuck him up to 3m and will try and win races on him.
Captain Teague 12/1 (5pl) – Windsor 2.25
I think there are many safer options available in this race than Captain Teague, but there has always been ability with this horse, and if he is fit and ready, I think he can run well.
He is a Grade 1 winner from his novice hurdling days at Newbury in the Challow. He then was poor at the Cheltenham Festival, but if my memory serves me correctly, the yard was very poor that week, and he was one of many flops.
Since then, he has been tried over fences and has been away from the track for a long time. This is a decent pot for him, and if he wasn't fully revved up, I can't envisage connections sticking him in a race like this.
He has always looked like a plodder, so this trip will be perfect for him.
Matata 10/3 (2pl) – Windsor 3.00
I think the favourite will be a tough nut to crack if he is on form, but if he isn't, then I think Matata could pick up the pieces.
Matata is a bit of a nut job, but he showed that with age, he is maturing. He wasn't keen and didn't need to be a front runner when he ran out an easy winner at Cheltenham on his second start over 2m 4f.
Given how he stayed on at the finish off top weight up the hill at Cheltenham, there's no reason why he can't stay the extra couple of furlongs around this track.
Neo King 20/1 (5pl) – Windsor 3.35
This is a very tricky race, and I think you could give a chance to every horse in the race. I was tempted by Planned Paradise, as he won this race last year off a 7lb higher mark. I ended up giving another chance to Neo King, who I tipped up at Kelso over 4m last time out.
I think this lad is a proper stayer and will relish the marathon trips, but he was given a shocking ride at Kelso. Ben Jones replaces the apprentice rider, and that has to be a huge positive. Ben is riding out of his skin at the moment and will hopefully give this horse a solid chance.
GambleAware