The same comments apply from the main thread. I am out for most of the day on Saturday and will not be able to speak about the performances of the Lucky 15.
Without knowing the odds of the bottom two selections, it's hard to say whether to go for an each-way or straight Lucky 15. However, given the price of the top two, I'd say a straight win is likely the way I'd play.
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Sunday's Lucky 15 tips
Lake Victoria 9/4 – Newmarket 3.35
A few years ago, Quiet Reflection was my favourite flat horse, so I am very happy to see one of her offspring being a very good horse. Lake Victoria was unbeaten in her juvenile season and managed to win three Group 1s and a Group 3 from her five starts, proving to be one of the best prospects in the filly division, so it is a tad surprising that she isn't shorter in the market (at the time of writing) for the 1000 Guineas.
She looks certain to stay the trip, as she did win over a mile at the Breeders' Cup, albeit on a sharper track, but the Frankel side of the pedigree looks prominent over the sprinting side of Quiet Reflection, but that doesn't mean she doesn't carry speed as she has already proven that she does. She looks like an ideal type for this race; she handles any ground, has a turn of foot, but also stays well. This race looks like a match between Lake Victoria and the Godolphin favourite, and it will be a great clash to watch.
Merchant 11/8 – Newmarket 5.20
With the way that William Haggas' yard has started the new turf season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Merchant kickstart his season as a three-year-old with a win.
He is a lightly raced horse making his handicap debut and has been placed in a very winnable race, in my opinion. He has been given a handicap mark of 82 to start life off in handicaps, which is definitely workable based on the three performances we've seen from his so far. His last two runs were a big improvement on his debut effort, and he has finished second and first in those last two runs.
The form of the wins looks solid enough, with the runner-up finish to Gunship being the standout piece, as the third-placed horse has won on his seasonal reappearance in a Class 3 race in good style.
Alnayef 10/1 – Hamilton 2.35
I am doing this before the odds for Hamilton have been released, so I am totally unaware of what price Alnayef will be. He could either be fairly short in the market due to having a decent run behind French Master (main thread selection on Saturday), or he could be quite weak in the market as he is making his stable debut for Jim Goldie.
Either way, I thought he was an interesting runner on his handicap debut for a yard who definitely goes under the radar, and for a jockey who is a good rider for the 3lb claimer that she is. I like the form of the second-placed finish to French Master, and hopefully, that form line can take a boost on Saturday. He was ridden very prominently, and probably too aggressively at Kempton that day, but maybe it was to showcase the talents of the winner, given they were from the same stable that day. If he is ridden with more restraint, this son of Sea The Stars is definitely capable of being better than his opening handicap mark of 74, which is effectively 71 with Amie Waugh taking off the 3lbs.
Masekela 3/1 – Hamilton 4.53
Another horse that is an enigma is Masekela. If you were to tell me two or three years ago that this horse would be running in a Class 5 0-70 handicap at Hamilton and was trained by Tim Easterby, I'd have said you're crazy, as he was rated in the 100s and was competitive in very good races.
Since moving to Tim Easterby's yard, he hasn't managed to win a race, but he did showcase that he is still capable of winning races last year, and this year he has finished sixth on both starts, but that doesn't tell the full story. He hasn't had the main stable jockey on board, raced towards the rear on both occasions, and didn't get the clearest of runs through last time out. He has been dropped a couple of pounds by the handicapper, and now David Allan is on board, also, the yard is flying at present, and it is only a matter of time before this horse cashes in on a ludicrous handicap mark.
Summary
- 3:35 Newmarket – Lake Victoria – 9/4
- 5:20 Newmarket – Merchant – 11/8
- 2:35 Hamilton – Alnayef – 10/1
- 4:53 Hamilton – Masekela – 3/1
GambleAware