Saturday’s Racing Tips – The lightly raced Skipper is worth chancing on the heavy ground in Haydock’s opener

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Both of my horses (Rizzel) were losers on Friday. Unfortunately, I can't really comment on how they've ran as I was out and about and the connection was very bad, so I saw the races through a very blurry Bet365 stream and haven't had time to rewatch them.

Cairnzy is on holiday for a couple of days so I've been handed the baton for the weekend's racing.

Rizzel's Tips

Lake Victoria 11/4 – Newmarket 2.25

Newmarket has been hit by a tonne of rain in the last couple of days which has left the ground like a swamp, with it riding close to heavy so it's going to be a tough ask for the horses out there!

It is a risk going for Lake Victoria for this race given she hasn't raced on soft ground or over 6f but I think she is worth that risk. She has a pedigree which suggests soft ground is what she'll relish. Frankel was best on fast ground, but he has produced a lot of horses who relish the soft conditions, and with the Dam being Quiet Reflection, who was a mare who put in her best performances on soft ground, everything points towards this ground being a positive for her.

The drop to 6f is more of a concern than the ground as she has been kept to 7f and she has done her best part of her races in the final stages of her races, but with the ground riding like it is, this is going to be a stamina test for these young horses and I think having the extra stamina in reserve can only be a positive. Going back to her pedigree, she has plenty of speed from the Dam's side as Quiet Reflection was a two-time Group 1 winner over 6f and won 5f races as a juvenile. Lake Victoria has shown that she has speed when racing on the Newmarket July course when running prominently and being one of the last off the bridle.

This is her hardest assignment to date, but she is a very likeable filly who is progressing on every start and I'm hoping that Ryan is positive on her as this track does tend to suit horses who race from the front, and making up ground on tacky ground will be a tough task.

Skipper 4/1 – Haydock 1.30

Similarly to Newmarket, Haydock is back to its old ways and has heavy ground in the going description, which has been a rarity over this summer, whereas we're normally expecting this track to be riding soft or heavy at every meeting as that's what it has felt like for many years.

Skipper is my play for this race, and he has to prove that he handles the ground like my first selection. This lightly raced three-year-old son of Calyx has run twice on turf, but on good and good to firm, running well on both occasions, mixed in with two very good runs on the all-weather which saw him break his maiden tag last time out on the fourth attempt. The pedigree of Skipper is something which caught my eye and made me want to back him on this ground.

Skipper's Dam is related to Kinross. We all know what a good horse Kinross has been over the years, and still is as he won a Group 2 last time out, but the thing to take away from Kinross is his ability on soft ground as he has always been known to be most effective on a sloppy surface, which bodes well for Skipper. Mixing that pedigree with Calyx, who was known for his best runs on good ground would still raise doubts, but Calyx as a Sire has a cracking record with his progeny on heavy ground. He is 5/10 from his horses on today's going which is a small sample size, but it's a very good strike rate. He has a stronger sample size with his horses running on soft, with a 27% SR from 49 runners, so I think it's safe to say that his progeny do tend to run better on soft ground, so Skipper is worth a chance in this race.

Tom Clover is having a great time of things at the moment and is operating at a 42% SR over the last fourteen days, and he tends to do well with his runners at Haydock. Since becoming a trainer he has had 29 runners at this track, which has yielded 6 winners and a further 7 in the top three, which is a 21% SR and a +53.08 to £1 level stakes.

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