After a rough patch, it's nice to see the pair of us getting a few winners in recent days. Cairnzy landed two winners on Friday with one over the jumps seeing Sean Bowen delivering the good and then one over at Dundalk which has been relatively kind to Cairnzy in recent memory.
Rizzel's tips
Hunter Legend 7/2 – Uttoxeter 2.48
The early market prices for Hunter Legend are more than generous for this race, so it'll be interesting to see if those prices stay when this post is live.
The progression the Venetia Williams horse has made in recent runs has been very impressive, and it doesn't look like he's about to stop winning just yet on the handicap mark he currently sits on. He has bene put up a few pounds by the handicapper, but some of that is offset with Ned Fox taking the rides who takes off 3lbs of the 5lbs he was put up, so 2lbs for a comfortable success at Leicester makes him a no-brainer in my opinion.
He is going up to 3m which does pose a few questions as his wins have been over shorter, but with how well he stayed on at Leicester on a very soft surface it bodes well for his stamina as Leicester gets bottomless ground and you see strung out finishes, so seeing Hunter Legend powering up the straight gives me plenty of confidence that the extra distance will be fine for him. Soft/heavy ground seems essential to this horse's chances, so the rain which is expected to fall overnight should play into his hands.
Hitman 5/1 – Newbury 2.25
The Denman Chase this year is a very interesting renewal as there is no horse with an outstanding chance of winning, which makes it a great race to watch, but also to have a bet in as the odds will likely be scattered around.
I thought that out of every horse in the race, Hitman was the most obvious horse to back, even with Harry Cobden deciding to ride Bravemansgame. Despite not winning many races in recent times, he has run well in some races in the past months to suggest he is capable of winning a race of this nature and having good recent form is something I'd want for this race. He finished as runner-up at Ascot behind Terresita who was clearly well handicapped and it was a tough ask for Hitman who was carrying a lot more weight, plus he was staying on at the finish, suggesting the step back up to today's trip would suit.
Hitman hasn't been heavily tried over today's trip, but his two attempts have both been in this race from 2023 and 2024, both of those times he finished as runner-up. He was behind Zanza in 2023, who is a course specialist and last year he was second to Shishkin, but the winner looked to be in trouble, but his class shone. So, the course and distance form rates quite high.
King William Rufus 25/1 EW (5pl) – Newbury 3.35
This race was previously known as the Betfair Hurdle, and it is one of the most competitive hurdle races of the jumps calendar, with some decent prize money on offer as well. It's probably not the best betting race due to how competitive it is, but I can't stop myself from getting involved in King William Rufus at huge prices.
This horse has heaps of ability, and I think this race could be the ideal scenario for him as he is a thinker, but if he can be buried amongst the field and switched off by Charlie Maggs, he could be on the bridle coming to the last couple of furlongs. He seems to handle this track very well, he was going very well when he eventually finished behind Aurginy Mill but looked like the winner with a couple of furlongs to travel. He has since run well in defeat and has also managed to win a decent race at Ascot with ease. Last time out he wasn't anywhere near as good as he was the time before, but he only had a seven-day break between races, so I think the time between the last two runs was not big enough, but now he's had over a month to recover and prep for this race, he'll be much better.
I don't think the ground will be problematic for him, even though he has been withdrawn on this surface before, but he has previously been withdrawn on a much quicker surface, so I don't think there's much to read into it. The booking of Charlie Maggs is a good one as Charlie takes off 5lbs, has been riding well this season and is one of the usual jockeys the Northern trainers turn to when wanting a decent chunk of weight off their horse.
Trainer Chris Gordon won this race a couple of years ago, and with him being in decent form, it would not surprise me to see this horse running well.
