Saturday’s Racing Tips – Indemnity has the form in the book to be very well handicapped

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Walking away with just one winner on Friday leaves a very sour taste.

Impose Toi managed to tough out Strong Leader, but it didn't look like he was going to get past until the last 20 yards.

The other runner on the day, Inion Tiogair, should have won. Doncaster removed at least five hurdles due to the low sun, which hindered him massively. His best part of his game during the race was his low, slick jumping. He lost on the line, and the front two pulled 14L clear of the third.

Hunter Legend 9/2 (1pt) – Newbury 12.30

We all know how lethal Venetia Williams can be when the ground starts to get soft. She hasn't hit the ground running this season, but it does usually take her a couple of months before their horses find their feet.

It looks like the majority of Venetia's horses have needed their first run of this season, and that was the impression I got from watching Hunter Legend at Cheltenham two weeks ago.

I had the runner-up in the Cheltenham race, so I studied that race with a fine-tooth comb. I thought Hunter Legend was going to need the run, but I was also concerned about how he'd cope in a much better race.

It turns out that he did much better than I anticipated. Considering he was staying on at the finish, the return to a longer trip should give him a chance now that he is going to be race fit.

He goes best on soft ground, so the rain forecast for the morning and throughout the early afternoon should turn the ground in his favour.

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Indemnity 4/1 (1pt) – Newbury 2.15

I am very pleased that Emma Lavelle and connections of Indemnity have decided not to put Ben Jones back in the saddle for Indemnity. I tipped him up last time out, and definitely thought the ride given by Jones was not satisfactory.

In hindsight, he might not have won that race if Ben had been more proactive, as the winner has since bolted up in a better race at Cheltenham. However, the visuals at Ascot looked awful, so they've got Gavin Sheehan this time.

Gavin has always been a jockey who has gone under the radar, despite being one of the best in the UK. Since striking up a good relationship with Jamie Snowden, he has shown how capable a jockey he is.

Gavin has ridden this horse before, so he knows the level of ability he has. This is a tougher race than last time out, but given how well the winner from Ascot won last time out, it's hard to believe that Indemnity isn't also well handicapped off a 1lb higher mark.

The ground is something which adds a bit of doubt, but his best RPR of the flat came on soft ground. He is also by Lope De Vega, so there's plenty to believe the ground will not be an issue.

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Doyen Du Bar 6/1 (1pt) – Newbury 3.35

Considering this is a very long way for Nicky Richards to send a horse, and given that he is 0/20 at the track, it's ballsy to visit the track.

Doyen Du Bar is making his stable debut for Nicky, and they've managed to secure Harry Cobden in the saddle, which is a first for this yard. This is a tough race to make a seasonal return, and he could be on a tough mark, but the form of last season looks decent.

The win over Booster Bob and the runner-up at Sandown to Vincenzo both look solid. Vincenzo is now rated 12lbs higher and was second to Booster Bob the time after, and has since finished as runner-up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Doyen Du Bar went up 5lbs for an easy win in a three-runner race at Ayr in February, which makes his return a lot harder than if he were to be running off 126.

The fact that Nicky is willing to travel and managed to get Harry on board points towards a big run. This looks like a tough race on paper, but many look like they're on high enough handicap marks.

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Jasmin De Grugy 9/2 (1pt) – Newcastle 3.15

I thought it was strange that Anthony Honeyball has only ever had three runners at Newcastle in his training career. For a trainer who lands many long-distance gambles, I'd have thought he'd be in double digits for runners at this track.

Even though he is 0/3, it doesn't put me off from giving a chance to Jasmin De Grugy.

This is a very good Class 1 handicap, filled with good handicappers. Obviously, in races like this, you need to find one who is a fair bit ahead of the handicapper. I thought the two to focus on were Konfusion and Jasmin De Grugy.

Konfusion won well the time before last and is from an in-form yard. However, neither of the two most used jockeys for the yard has taken the ride on him, which is a big red flag. That left me with the JP McManus horse.

Jasmin is 2/4 over fences, and on his most recent start, he finished second in a Listed handicap at the Punchestown festival in the spring. That shows he can compete at this level.

He looks best when fresh, so the time away from the track isn't a concern, and with them willing to travel, he has to be primed for a big run.

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