Friday’s Nap didn’t quite cut it, with Calanthe coming into the race relatively well before flattening out rather rapidly. Moving on.
| Wincanton - 12:23 |
Thunder N Lightnin |
20/1 |
The best day of the week in terms of quality is upon us, and ahead of Saturday’s racing, I’m interested in the opener at Wincanton, where Thunder N Lightnin looks like a nice bet at chunky odds.
Let’s face it, this is a maiden, so experience is in short supply, meaning that any result is possible, but at early odds of 20/1, I really do like the look of Thunder N Lightnin, whose first three runs haven’t been without promise.
Harry Derham’s runner ran respectably on debut back in November 2023, finishing not far away from a few horses that have since gone on to be very useful indeed, while he followed up with a pleasing second at Taunton, again getting fairly close to a decent type. A recent spin at Kempton, where he returned to the track after a 317-day break, should have blown away the cobwebs, so don't be too surprised if he delivers a promising effort here, especially with his yard firing right now.
Not to be discounted for in-form trainer who likes Wincanton
If we’re being honest, even without the positive trainer stuff below, this horse has probably done enough to be much shorter than 20/1.
On debut, he finished only a length behind Menaggio, who has since gone on to earn a rating of 118 over hurdles and 126 over fences. On his second start, he finished runner-up (beaten just over a length) behind Centara, who has won again since and is now a 111-rated animal. This form looks decent.
It’s also worth noting that Harry Derham isn’t just in strong form, winning with 37.5% of his runners in the last fortnight, but also has an encouraging record at Wincanton, where his last 21 runners have returned seven winners and a further three places. In the last year, he also boasts a 29% strike rate at the Somerset venue.
More positive still is the fact that Derham has used the claim of Alice Stevens to excellent effect in recent times. In the last year, the pair have delivered a 35% strike rate when teaming up.
Ultimately, there are a few too many positives here for 20/1 to be considered anything other than too big. Those looking for value ahead of Saturday’s card should consider taking such a price.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 79 Naps) has a running P/L of +£85.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
