Last week's Lucky 15 wasn't great, so hopefully, today's will be a better return. I am quietly confident of some big runs in this Lucky, so fingers crossed.
Rizzel's tips
Bodhisattva 16/1 (5pl) – Newcastle 2.10
I was hoping that Invincible Nao was going to turn up for the Eider Chase as he was a recent winning selection for me on the main thread at Plumpton for the Gary & Josh Moore stable. I thought this race would be tailor-made for him, but maybe they've got their sites on the Midlands or Scottish National.
With the above horse not even being entered in today's race, it's left me in a position to find the winner. After looking through the race, not many jump off the page as horses who are a shoo-in, and I thought Bodhisattva was the obvious pick for me. This horse was a runner-up at Musselburgh in the regional national race at that track last month, and he was second to a winning selection of mine on the day, Magna Sam. He didn't get too close to the winner, but that was because the winner was miles better than his handicap mark, but my selection ran on tenaciously and I think the extra couple of furlongs will suit him for today's race.
Golden Son 8/1 (4pl) – Kempton 3.35
For the big handicap chase at Kempton, I've decided to have a bit of a leap of faith with Golden Son for the Nicholls yard who isn't exactly firing in the winners at his usual strike rate.
It's well documented that the Nicholls yard gives their horses the flu jabs in January, so the rough period from the start of the year isn't exactly a surprise, but it appears the end of that poor form is coming towards an end as we saw Pic D'Orhy win the Grade 1 last weekend and since then he has had plenty of placed horses and two winners from the last three runners.
Golden Son is unexposed at this trip so you can't exactly give up on him because he is 0/2 at the trip. His most recent run was a better showing than his run before that and given this track is about pace, this could suit a horse who is quick and has won races over shorter. Golden Son won at this meeting last year in the 2m 4f handicap, beating Heltenham. That day he was staying on at the finish and he is now 1lb lower than winning here twelve months ago, so is handicapped to go in again.
Blow Your Wad 5/1 – Kempton 4.10
Conceding weight all around will not make this an easy task for Blow Your Wad, but he is very good around Kempton and I think he can win first time out this season in this good Class 2 handicap.
There are many horses I've backed before in this contest so going against them is always a tough task, but you've got to let go of previous selections every now and again. Etalon is definitely a horse I would want to stay on side of as I tipped him up last time out, but I think he is much better over 2m and his time in the sun will come soon, potentially at one of the spring festivals over the minimum trip. There are plenty of well-handicapped horses who caught my eye, Solo being the main one as he is also a decent horse at this venue and is now weighted to win a race, even with him getting older.
This race will likely be run at a good tempo with the likes of Solo, Bourbali and Keep Running forcing the pace. That means Blow Your Wad will have to be on his A-Game in terms of jumping as a couple of slow jumps or blunders will see him with a mountain to climb, but also his fitness will have to be up to scratch as this will be a stamina test. But, I don't think connections would be coming to Kempton unless he was primed for a big run. He is 3/3 at this track, and he is returning with the Tom Lacey yard in great form. His win at this track last year in a Grade 2 on this card was a great effort and that showed he is versatile on any ground.
Icare Allen 15/2 (4pl) – Chepstow 2.32
I do try and avoid the Pertemps qualifiers as they are such a cesspit for punters as there are horses who aren't fully trying and are here just to qualify for the main even at Cheltenham, but this race in particular we have a lot of low rated horses who will need to win to get into the final, with Icare Allen being one of them.
Icare Allen was previously trained by Willie Mullins and has since moved to Jonjo & A J O'Neill's yard. Since being at this stable his form has fallen off a cliff which isn't a huge surprise given he is owned by JP McManus and with this owner it is often done on purpose to get a lower mark and land gambles, which the great man loves to do. Icare Allen is definitely not past his sell-by date and has surely got the ability to win races like this and put in a decent effort at Cheltenham.
He was targeted the Pertemps final last year when trained by Willie. He ran a decent qualifier at Haydock last season, finishing in third off a mark of 142. He went to the festival as one of the fancied horses for the race, going off at 7/1 but was eventually PU. His only entry at Cheltenham this year is the Pertemps race, and he is well-weighted if managing to get in. He handles soft ground very well and gets a useful 7lb claimer in the saddle, reducing his handicap mark to 117, running off a weight of 10st 2lbs today, so if they were really intending on going to Cheltenham, he'll be primed for this race.
This is advised as an EW Lucky 15 bet.
