Racing tips: The trip up to Ayr will be produce a much needed win for the Bailey stable

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The fact that Prince Quali didn't manage to last out to the race when nicking four lengths turning for home was very painful, and it just sums up this year so far. Maybe, the jockey could've kicked on earlier, but I don't think the rider was to blame for that, he just looked to be outstayed in the dying stages.

Lingfield 3:00 – Jubilee Express 7/1 (0.5pt EW, Bet365)

It does pain me to go against my 18/1 winning selection from last time out in Movethechains, but the manner in which he won the Surrey National has resulted in him going up 9lbs in the handicap. I still think he can win this race, as it's not too competitive, but I feel like Jubilee Express is worth a shot over today's trip.

He looked potentially in need of a longer trip at Exeter on soft ground last time out. He looked tired at the end, but in reality, that was still a decent effort over 3m at Exeter to finish just a length behind Run To Milan who is a course expert and is still a very good yardstick at the age of 12, as he proved when finishing as runner-up on Sunday just gone. The winner from that Exeter race has since won again, so there was no chance of getting any closer to him than what they did, proving he was ridiculously well-handicapped, as his RPR of +20lbs would've suggested.

Speaking of RPRs, Jubilee Express recorded an RPR of +8lbs for his performance compared to his rating at the time, but the handicapper dropped him 1lb, which is interesting as surely he has given him a very good chance of capitalising on this mark if he stays the trip. There is room for improvement from this lightly raced chaser with just two starts to his name and he's on a good handicap mark based on his run from lto and his hurdles mark which is in the mid-120s.

Lingfield 4:10 – Tea And Chats 13/2 (0.5pt EW, WilliamHill 3pl)

With the way that Chris Gordon's horses are firing at the moment, I think that it's worth taking a chance on his chase debutante Tea And Chats.

If this horse was much shorter in the betting he wouldn't be worth the risk, but 13/2 and getting 3 places with some firms he is worth a shot. He isn't a total no-hoper in this on his hurdles form, as his first run at Plumpton saw him finish 2nd and the form of the horses in that race put him bang there in today's race off a handicap mark of 105. The winner of that race is now rated 116 over hurdles and is 3/5 over fences, which has him rated 120. Schammalch Liath was 3rd in the Plumpton race and he is now rated 123 rated over hurdles and was middle of the pack in a Grade 3 handicap a weekend ago. Tea And Chats' form hasn't been quite the same level since, but fences will more than likely be the making of him as he is bred to do so, and he jumped and looked like a chaser on his hurdles debut. He is related to a number of winners over fences, so off a low mark he gets my vote.

Ayr 2:15 – Moonlighter 5/1 (1pt, Bet365)

With the form of recent weeks, and pretty much since the start of the year it probably isn't a wise idea going for Moonlighter in this contest given his quirkiness, but if he's on a going day, this 11yo can smoke this field.

Not only is it a risk going for him due to his quirky side, but also he is going against much younger horses who arrive in good form, but I think the drop to 2m could be what he has been needing for a while. He hasn't been running badly this year, but on each occasion over further than today's trip his gas tank has emptied, and it's quite strange that they haven't been campaigning him over 2m as his best form and most of his wins has come over today's trip.

The testing ground is what this horse wants and the fact that the out-of-form Kim Bailey sends him up to Ayr as his sole runner on the card, and he is 1/3 at the track in the last five years suggests they fancy their chances.

Ayr 3:55 – Lady In The Park 7/2 (1pt)

Lady In The Park steps up to 3m for the first time since her PTP win in March of last year and I think that will massively help her.

She is a strong stayer, we saw that from her PTP win when she was asserting late on in that race. She has been campaigned over shorter for her first two starts over hurdles, but we saw that strong stamina at Wetherby last time out when she stayed on strongly after swinging wide off the home bend and she got up and was pulling away at the finish. There are stayers in the pedigree, with the likes of Little Bruce lingering in the pedigree lines and he stayed 3m 6f.

The Lucinda Russell yard won this race last year with Apple's Away who went on to win a Grade 1 at Aintree. I'm not for one minute saying that this horse will follow in her footsteps, but they clearly believe that this step up in trip is ideal for her and it's ironic that they're stepping her up on her handicap debut in the same race.

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