Racing tips: Palace Boy can still prove to be well handicapped off a 6lb rise in the weights

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Mr Vango was a well-backed winner, winning by the best part of 2f, yes if you didn't watch the race, that is two furlongs. He went off as 11/4F and put in arguably one of the best rounds of jumping I've seen from a second-starting novice, other than the blunder three from home, he was foot-perfect. 

I feel slightly unlucky on Sean. He was blocked massively in his run when trying to make his efforts to win the race. Whether or not he would've won with a clear passage, who knows, but he was placed and ensured we didn't lose any money on him.

Kempton 1:15 – Sea Invasion 11/2 (0.5pt EW, Bet365 4pl)

I think it's very interesting that Chris Gordon has chucked Sea Invasion into this race on his handicap debut, getting him at the bottom of the weights (7lbs lighter than his nearest horse) and they're going up by 5f in trip.

All of the above would suggest this horse is a handicap plotjob all day long. I think that they've rated this horse since getting him as there was some decent late money for him last time out at Kempton over 2m (went off at 16s, but was much bigger earlier). He was outpaced, but stayed well to the task and plugged on into fourth late into that race. Based on that performance the 5f extra distance should be right up his street, also the fact he was 2nd on his sole PTP start would suggest that the added stamina is perfect for him.

His form isn't on the same level as others in this race, but he ran an encouraging race behind Jeriko Du Reponet at Newbury and I am a fan of how he has ran last time out. Running over 2m was never going to suit him, but the fact they are tossing him into a very good handicap race on his handicap debut over a new trip just looks like connections think he is on a very decent handicap mark. Chris Gordon has been finding his feet in recent weeks and has had 5 winners from 12 runners.

Kempton 3:37 – Lord Baddesley 17/2 (0.5pt EW, WilliamHill 4pl)

There are plenty of interesting runners for this big prize handicap chase, but I narrowed it down to one and I fancy Lord Baddesley who is ridden by Rex Dingle, trained by Chris Gordon and is in the same colours and the first selection of the day, Sea Invasion.

I have not picked this horse based on the same connections as the earlier race, but I do think that this horse can be very dangerous now he's stepping up to 3m for the first time. He has always been a horse with ability, but he hasn't been consistent in showing what he possesses, but his run at Newbury behind Inch House showed the ability he has. That run was over 2m 6f and he was doing his best work at the finish, and with an extra furlong, he might've won. You might not think that is great form as the winner bombed out last time out and Killer Kane is probably handicapped to the hilt off his current mark, but I like the unexposed angle of this horse running over 3m. The trip looks sure to suit, and if he has 5lbs to spare on his handicap mark, that might even be enough to win this race. He has a nice racing weight of 10st 8lbs, and with the yard and jockey both being in fantastic form, there's a lot to like.

I'll speak about a few others as this race is very competitive on paper.

Cap Du Nord – Won many big pots in recent years, and will have his supporters as it's a race he has won before and Christian Williams like a big race win. However,  he's now 11, has had chances in big pot races this season and hasn't fired. Durrell riding his first time for the yard, when they could've easily gone for Collier who claims 7lbs and is a stable jockey.

Bowtogreatness – Has attempted 3m+ 2x, once which saw him finish 2nd in Grade 3 at Aintree, other was PU but that was his first run of the season. His form over shorter hasn't been great for some time, so maybe you can excuse him for the run lto. Considering his best form was at Aintree, maybe flat tracks are his thing, so this track might bring the best out of him. The yard is in superb form. 1lb higher than the Aintree run means a return to form should see him bang there.

Blackjack Magic – On a tough mark now, will handle the conditions but Rex Dingle has opted to ride Lord Baddesley.

Flegmatik – +6lbs from last win (had 3lb claimer on board), makes it a tough ask despite loving the track.

Tweed Skirt – Won easily but third (Tea Clipper) is 0/2 in hunter chasers, odds-on on both occasions, so the form looks stinky.

Il Ridoto – Probably the most interesting horse in the race now he's attempting 3m for the first time. Strange to see him take so long to try this trip if they felt he would stay. Almost seems like a decision based on the fact he is struggling to win big pots over 2m 4f so they're just chancing their arm. If he stays, he will be tough to beat.

Kempton 4:10 – Champagne Mistery 11/2 (0.5pt EW)

This is a bit of a left-of-field selection as this horse is still an unknown now he's back on British soil, but I thought Champagne Mistery shaped with plenty of promise on his return to the UK on his first start back with Tom George at Cheltenham just a month ago.

This horse has been all over the place, he started off with Nicky Henderson, and ran well when with that stable, including a win over hurdles at this track, which is a benefit. He was 2nd to Dashel Drasher in his novice chase days but then moved to Tom George which saw him run predominantly in France, before moving to Tom's son's yard in France. His form in France looks solid, and even at the age of 9 (now 10) he finished 4th/10,  in a Grade 2 Chase over 2m 4f on soft ground, recording an RPR of 138. His handicap mark has dropped to 128, 2lbs lower than his run at Cheltenham and this drop in grade, return to a right-handed flat track should be a big help to him. He didn't seem to get home over the stiff track of Cheltenham, he jumped out to the right when getting tired, so going this way around will help him in the latter stages as well.

Though this race appears to be tough on paper, I don't really rate the opposition. Pepe Le Moko has gone flying up the weights, but he beat an 11yo, 10yo and 2x 9yo, and though he won convincingly in the end, he was niggled along turning for home, and I think he'll find this much tougher. Grandad's Cottage was a winning selection for us a few weeks ago, but he is effectively up 12lbs as he went up 5lbs for the win, and Sean Bowen takes over from the 7lb claimer, and based on that he should have no chance. Golden Son has been very disappointing, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he came to form at some point, but he's just looked laboured. War Lord looks like he's on a very quick decline, and when I tipped him up last time out which resulted in his running a shocker, that's enough for me to stay well clear. Gustavian could be dangerous off his current mark, and I think they'll be positive on him with Sam Twiston on board, he is my idea of the main danger.

Newcastle 2:08 – Flower Of Scotland 7/1 (0.5pt EW, PaddyPower 4pl)

Flower Of Scotland is a horse who has been crying out for a trip this long and on testing ground. She won the Border's National at Kelso in December 2022, winning it with ease and was strongly backed in that day. She has since finished 3rd in the 2023 Musselburgh National when the ground wasn't soft enough, she was positioned poorly towards the rear and the track didn't suit, neither did the trip as she was staying on all the time, but running out of time and track to reel in the two ahead of her. She hasn't been seen since November last year, but Sandy Thompson is great at plotting for the big National races and with him and Ryan Mania both being in tremendous form of late, she is one I've got to have a bit of money on.

Angler's Crag is the one to beat on recent form. He has been impressive since moving to Brian Ellison's yard. He has to prove he stays the trip, but his mother stayed 4m, so there's optimism on that front if you're a fan of his.

Southwell 5:05 – Palace Boy 11/4 (2pt, WilliamHill)

Some of you might recognise the name Palace Boy as he was a winning selection at Wolverhampton from back in January. He was tipped up at around 11/4, but was smashed into 6/5F, was held up from miles off the pace, but cruised through to victory, as a well handicapped horse should be doing.

Today is he going up to 2m, and I think that is going bring out the improvement needed for him to win a stronger race off a 6lb higher handicap mark. If George Rooke rides him like he did last time out then that could spell disaster as he had to go through a wall of horses last time out, but if he does attempt that, he does have 2f extra this time around to make his move and weave his way through the field. Southwell is kinder than most of the other AW tracks for horses coming from off the pace, so his style should also suit this track. I still believe he is on a very good handicap mark, and if he isn't winning this I'd be very disappointed.

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