This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Maskada drifting out to 4/1 after being put up at 13/8 and running badly isn't what I envisaged on Friday when looking through the card. Her jumping went from looking really good to completely falling apart when Riviere D'etel applied pressure.
On The Blind Side should be retired now, he had everything in his favour today but he seems to be completely gone at the game now. Brentford Hope was a NR in the Betfair Hurdle, if it was based on the ground that's completely baffling. Norman Fletcher jumped like a fridge and that left him with very little chance of getting involved and being placed.
Exeter 2:05 – Trelawne 7/4 (2pt)
I am a big fan of Trelawne and I think this is definitely a winnable race against some decent novice chasers.
Tahmuras put in a big performance at Aintree on boxing day off a heavy weight on soft ground, and with the form of the jockey and trainer plus he is an ex-Grade 1 winner over hurdles you'd say he is the one to beat, but I think he is beatable. Trelawne put in a bit of a monster performance at Wetherby, which might sound daft given he finished 2nd, but if you watched the race live then you'd have seen how badly he was hanging to the right, and he nearly veered off the course when turning for the second circuit, which meant he ran a shed load more than any horse in the race, but he still nearly won. The return to a right-handed track should evidently suit him by the way he was jumping and hanging last time out.
The ground isn't going to be a problem for him as he is a mud lover and will stay further in time, so his stamina is going to be a big asset to his chances of winning.
Exeter 2:35 – Lowry's Bar 11/10 (2pt, Bet365)
I'm keeping the faith with Lowry's Bar for this contest after he won for me last time out.
Philip Hobbs & Johnston White's 6yo is in great form, with two wins in novice/maiden company and two in handicaps, and he looks like a very smart horse for the future. Carrying a penalty in this isn't ideal, but given that he handles the heavy ground extremely well and his form looks solid and I think he will be tough to beat. Josh The Boss is the main threat, he'll go from the front but Jamie Nield isn't claiming his usual 7lbs for this contest which makes life much more difficult than when winning in his maiden and novice races.
Micheal Nolan should track the Twiston-Davies horse and not allow him to get too much of an easy lead as coming from behind on this type of ground can be very difficult.
Exeter - 2:05 pm
7/4 @ Bet365
Exeter - 2:35 pm