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Barenboim drifted out to 12/1 at Lingfield and ran a corker to finish 3rd, arguably being a bit unlucky not to get closer or possibly win. I am hoping the handicapper doesn't alter his rating, as he is going to win a race sooner than later and he's starting to settle better, which gives him every opportunity of seeing his races out.
Carlisle 2:02 – Martator 9/4 (1pt, WilliamHill)
This seems like D-Day for Martator. If he can't win this race then I am struggling to back him in the future as even though there are some unexposed horses over fences, with a couple making their chase debuts, his experience and form in the book should make him too hard to beat.
I've stuck him up a couple of times already this season but left him alone last time out at Newbury as I thought he was vulnerable to a newcomer, and sure enough he was, but he still ran with plenty of credit to finish 2nd and produce a decent performance. Today is a bit different as the horses who are making their chase debuts are higher in the weights and I wouldn't say they are on extremely good marks to begin their life over fences. Martator has bumped into two really nice prospects on his last two runs, both have since won again and even his third at Plumpton looks better than it did back then as the winner went on to win on his next start, now being 10lbs higher than when they won at Plumpton.
The yard form is a bit concerning, but it was going to happen at some stage as Venetia was firing in winners left, right and centre, but when those horses reach a high enough rating in the handicap they aren't going to be firing in the same amount of winners, but I still believe this horse is seriously capable of winning a race or two if placed correctly off a mark of 117.
Carlisle 2:32 – Lunar Discovery 15/8 (1pt, Bet365)
It could be a foolish decision going for the top-weight Lunar Discovery as she is carrying 12st in the novice mares race, but on paper, she should be winning this despite the top-weight issues.
James Moffatt's 7yo hardy mare has been fantastic this year, which has been the case for the entire stable, but this mare really upped her game when finishing 2nd at Haydock in a Listed Mares race behind a Nicky Henderson horse. If you compare the horses in that race to today's race at Carlisle, Lunar Discovery should be too good for the mares in this field unless one can really show an improved level of form, which looks highly unlikely.
Given how well she was staying on at Haydock up the very long straight at that track, today's venue should pose no problems as it also has a long run-in, which will suit her strong stamina.
She is carrying 12st on paper but 3lbs is taken away by Charlotte Jones' 3lb claim which is very handy and Charlotte is an ace rider, her strike rate speaks for itself (13/68 this season 19%SR and 68/342 in total 20%).
Carlisle - 2:02 pm
9/4 @ William Hill
Carlisle - 2:32 pm