Racing tips: Heart Over Head has the pedigree in the books to be a winning bumper debutante

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Fevertre gave us a winner on Monday in the last race at Carlisle. He went through the race very stylishly and James Best looked full of confidence until the horse clattered the second last, but he bounced back with a quick jump at the final hurdle which definitely secured the win.

I actually can't describe the performance/ride on Shighness. Brian Hughes seems to be everyone's favourite jockey, but I can't see why. I think he is so overrated and if you put most of the Northern jockeys on the rides he gets from the big stables from the North, they'd equal what he does, and there's a reason why nobody touches him at the big meetings. I just can't stand how nonchalantly he rides, he rarely rides a horse into an obstacle and sits motionless.

Market Rasen 5:05 – Heart Over Head 9/2 (1pt, Bet365)

It could be a rookie mistake going for a newcomer in a bumper race in a race which has runners from some big bumper winning yards, but I can't get over the fact that Paddy Brennan goes to Market Rasen on a Tuesday and the horse he must be going for is Heart Over Head.

If Paddy is going for the ride on the low-rated novice hurdler then that's fair enough, but personally, I can't see that happening. Paddy is on the verge of retiring, he is basically doing a few days a week at the races and he is picking and choosing which horses to ride, so seeing him take the ride on this bumper debutante is of major notice. This horse is related to Allaphilipe who is a smart stablemate at Fergal O'Brien's yard, and that horse won on his bumper debut on testing ground. Born For War, another sibling, also ran in bumpers, finishing in the places on both starts and if you go further into the pedigree there are other bumper winners/horses running well, so the pedigree is a positive one for this sphere.

Fergal has a good record in bumpers, and has a 27% SR in this type of race at Market Rasen, equalling a profit of +14.13 to level stakes.

Taunton 3:10 – Not At Present 5/1 (1pt, Bet365)

With the way that Ben Pauling has his horses running, I think Not At Present is worth chancing on the back of his recent fall at Newbury.

He was in the midst of making a decent return on the back of a 543-day absence at Newbury, he was evidently very tired and fell due to that, but he was shaping nicely in a decent handicap for the grade. There has been a winner and a few placed horses from that race so far, so the fact he shaped so well is a huge credit to himself to keep his ability after such a long time off the track and is a credit to the training performance of the Pauling team. If he has come on plenty for that run then he should be very competitive in this race which looks a lot easier on paper.

The ground is going to be very testing, and he is unproven on a surface this bad, but he clearly has stamina in reserve as he was outpaced at Fontwell over hurdles over 3m 2f on soft ground, but he stayed on like a steam train and managed to get up on the line. The form of that race looks decent in hindsight as the runner-up went on to win on his next start and Certainly Red was back in fourth and he has become a 140-rated staying chaser. The handicapper has dropped him 2lbs for that run at Newbury and Ben Pauling has opted to get Beau Morgan in the saddle, taking off a further 5lbs off, so on his older pieces of form he is starting to look very well handicapped.

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