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It's becoming very tedious that when I think the jumps meetings are going to be off due to the weather they always seem to go ahead, but when I think they will survive the morning inspections they are never on. I'm not even going to bother with Southwell, and I've fully focussed on the AW meetings.
Newcastle 1:45 – Stintino Sunset 7/4 (1pt, WilliamHill)
Julia Feilden doesn't send many up to Newcastle, which is hardly surprising given that her stable is in Exning, next to Newmarket. Obviously, we see a fair amount of Newmarket trainers send their horses to Newcastle, but they have much bigger operations than Julia, so it's a vote of confidence that they send their sole runner of the day up to Newcastle, with Dylan Hogan taking the trip up for the sole ride as well.
Stintino Sunset has to prove that he handles Tapeta, as his form has come on Polytrack, but based on his form over the winter months this 4yo has a very solid chance of landing a second win on the AW and a third career win up at Newcastle. He was a tad unlucky not to have won at Kempton last time out as he was travelling nicely, but was tucked away up in the inside and didn't get much daylight until late on where he had to be switched, but ran on strongly. The 4th and 5th placed horses came out and won over the last couple of days, so the form is working out nicely.
The drop back to 10f shouldn't be an issue given how well he moves through his races, and given that he stays further is a positive in case they go a good gallop, especially with Newcastle which has a long straight when turning for home, which should allow him to get into top gear and beat this field.
Newcastle 3:30 – Possible Ambition 5/1 (1pt, Bet365)
The past two runs from Possible Ambition will probably mean the odds are going to be quite high on him winning this race, but if he can bounce back to form to the start of 2023 and even his first two starts of this winter campaign he should have a fighting chance in this.
I am willing to give him a try even though he was 9th/12 and 8th/12 in his last two runs as he has been a fairly consistent horse prior to that from his previous five runs, so something must've been amiss on those two runs, and it's not a great surprise to see him away from the track for 40 days. His handicap mark has dropped 2lbs for those two runs and today John Quinn has opted for 5lb claimer, Gianluca Sanna to do the riding which puts him on a handicap mark of 51, which makes him a very tempting bet for Wednesday. He went close off 59 twice, once in December 2022 and the other in February 2023, the form of those races seemed strong for the grade at the time. Even the form from this winter campaign looks good with the 3rd at Newcastle in November producing a winner from the runner-up, and the 4th and 5th have run creditable races in defeat since.
The recent blinkers he has been wearing have been replaced by the visor. He wore this visor when recording an RPR of 66 which has been his best performance since earlier in his career, and he followed that up with a 64 the time after in the same headgear, so I believe the return to the visor might be able to spark a bit of life back into him.
His last win came off a mark of 59 which was effectively 52 as Ryan Sexton took off 7lbs that day. That win was over today's C&D and in a slightly better grade, so given he is 1lb lower than that today with the apprentice's claim, he is worth a second look.
Newcastle - 1:45 pm
7/4 @ William Hill
Newcastle - 3:30 pm