Racing tips: Demnat could easily be well handicapped despite a 10lb rise in the weights on his second start for Venetia

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Arizona Cardinal was an easy winner at Ludlow, and I hope you got the SP of 11/4 and avoided the 20p R4. I don't understand how I can get penalised with a R4 on a horse who drifted to a bigger price, but that's one of many things in horse racing which baffles me. Other than a couple of sketchy jumps late on, he was flawless and won with plenty in hand.

Newbury 4:10 – Demnat 11/8 (2pt, WilliamHill)

The Venetia horse is touching the ridiculous side of his price now, but it is to be expected being from this yard and winning in emphatic style on a 900-day layoff on stable debut, and even though he is getting short enough I will still be backing him as I think he is the winner of this race.

You could argue that on paper I'd Like To Know offers ‘better value' at 9/4 or around those odds as he was narrowly beaten by Issar D'Airy over today's C&D lto and that winner looked like a nice, progressive horse. However, I think Demnat is the best horse in this race and if he can't improve off that performance from 900+ days off the track then I'd be gobsmacked as he looked desperately in need of a left-handed track. He won easily at Ludlow over 2m 4f, but he was going out to the left at near enough every fence, and hung left when going clear up the run-in, so running at Newbury will improve him even further. The drop in trip isn't as much a concern as it might look like, as he was winning races on heavy ground over shorter than 2m 4f in France and he didn't seem to lack pace at Ludlow, and if anything, the fact he stays that little bit further than 2m should put him in good stead as it will be testing ground at Newbury with some heavy rain expected to fall in the early hours of Friday.

The form of Venetia's yard has been a problem, and a reason why I've been staying away from their horses, but they have had a couple of winners in recent days, and I think with this horse with one run to his name from this stable, he's hardly going to be in the grips on the handicapper. Venetia does very well with her French imports, they often arrive with good handicap marks which they exploit fairly quickly, and that is the case with Demnat, and despite a 10lb rise, the manner in which he won, there should be more under the bonnet.

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