Racing tips: Al Kalila could prove to be well handicapped off 109 on his handicap debut at Wetherby

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

It was a shame not to see my sole selection of Wednesday take her chance in what I deemed to be a winnable race. Unfortunately, I found out too late and wasn't able to put up a replacement due to my commitments during the day. 

Thursday's racing looks horrendous, with a very poor Southwell card on the AW not drawing me in to have a bet and with Fontwell having an inspection due to their heavy ground and they're expecting further rain, that leaves me with just one racecard to get stuck into. I could look at Fontwell, but going off the weather forecast it just seems a waste of time as it looks more than likely it will be called off.

Wetherby 3:20 – Royal Mer 6/4 (2pt)

We probably won't get amazing odds for Royal Mer but this race doesn't look strong and he deserves to be the favourite as on recent form he is the one they all have to beat.

His recent win over 2m showed that he is more than capable of running big races over the minimum trip as he had been campaigned over 2m 4f and slightly further up until his last run at Leicester. I think on soft ground he can get away with running over this trip as it brings his added stamina into play and when you combine that with his high cruising speed for this grade of race it's a winning formula and he showed that last time out under Harry Cobden when winning with ease. This race doesn't seem the strongest, with the majority of the horses being out of form, but with David Pipe's horse we know that he is in great form and he is only a 6yo so could still have room for improvement off his current career-high handicap mark of 107. The ground is going to be testing and it will take some getting home on this surface, so knowing he handles it is a big confidence booster.

David Pipe's yard has hit a good bit of form over the last couple of weeks, which has seen him get 5 winners from 23 runners, including a 50/1 winner yesterday, which was doubled up on the day with a winner at Hereford. He has a decent record at the track and operates at a 16% SR, and given this is a fair distance to travel and it's his only runner of the day, I think his horse could be difficult to beat.

Wetherby 3:55 – Al Kalila 12/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl)

This is more of a competitive race than the previous one, but as a result of that we're getting better odds on my fancy Al Kalila.

If there is a horse who could be a fair bit ahead of the handicapper in this it is Al Kalila, who makes his handicap debut today off a mark of 109. The mark is effectively 104 as Ben Bromley takes off a handy 5lbs and based on the form of some of his recent races, this handicap mark could definitely be on the lenient side. His latest run at Ayr was a very good effort to finish 2nd to a horse rated 116 who had run in some decent races earlier in the season, including a 3rd to Johnnywho and was even pitched into a Class 2 race at Musselburgh, so they must hold him in decently high regard, so finishing as runner-up to that horse isn't anything to be ashamed of, especially off a 75 day break which might not have seen Al Kalila at his peak fitness.

Stuart Crawford is mustard when sending his horses over to the UK, his strike rate isn't ridiculously high, but in comparison to his record in Ireland, the difference is night and day. This is his only runner on the card, and it's a track which has been profitable to him over the years, with a +22.73 profit to level stakes. When Ben has teamed up with Crawford they have had 3 winners and a further 8 places from 25 runners, which isn't prolific, but shows that they do win or go close more often than not.

Horse Racing Tips

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media