Monday’s Racing Tips – Shadow Army can resume winning ways at Ripon

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Seargent Wilko was gamely from the front to reward us with one winning selection on Sunday. Unfortunately, the remainder performed under par with the slight exception of Rizzel's selection Firebird who was pipped on the line by a 50/1 outsider.

Midnight Gun was well backed from 9/2 into 2/1 favorite but his effort was underwhelming as he went out like a light as they entering the final two furlongs. He seems to have quite an awkward head carriage which never helps and possibly the ground conditions were against him, given most of his better form has come on a quicker surface. Rizzel's other selection Charlotte's Web was well beaten by David O'Meara's Estrange who looks like one to follow in the future on the back of that run. Estrange had no problem with the ground and stormed through the pack in the final furlong to win by over 5L.

Profit/Loss for the month: -15.625pts

Cairnzy's tips

Shadow Army 11/8 – Ripon 3.12

This is an interesting little contest as you've multiple horses from strong yards coming here on the back of debut wins and although they've a bit to find with those towards the head of the market, you couldn't rule any of them out from taking a big step forward and becoming competitive at this Listed level.

With that said, sometimes experience is key and my selection Shadow Army ticks a lot of boxes for me in terms of being the most likely winner. The Wathnan Racing-owned youngster has only raced four times but brings plenty of solid form to this race, which also represents a significant drop in grade as he's been contesting at Group level recently. Shadow Army's debut came at York back in May of this year and although it was all straight forward it was hard not to be impressed with how he overcame inexperience that day to get up on the line by a short head under jockey Danny Tudhope.

Connections wasted no time in throwing Shadow Army into the deep end at Royal Ascot when he contested in the Windsor Castle Stakes. He was well fancied in the betting that day and he was eventually sent of a 4/1 favourite to win the race. Unfortunately for those involved, he failed to make any sort of impact that day, finishing in midpack and around 8L of the winner. I'm not totally sure what went wrong with Shadow Army at Ascot, possibly lit up by the large field of runners or maybe it was simply a bad day at the office. Shadow Army was then given a 3 week break and was sent to France to contest in a Group 2 at Chantilly. Although not winning he bounced back to form with a 3/4 length defeat into second behind Karl Burke's Arabie. The form of that contest looks very strong as Arabie had previously won a Group 3 and has since run with credit in a Group 1 at Deauville when finishing just under 3L behind Aiden O'Briens Whistlejacket. Shadow Army also finished one place ahead of Ed Walker's Celandine who has recently boosted the form when winning at the York Ebor festival in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes. Shadow Army then ran well to finish fourth in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, beaten 5L by the winner Babouche who looks a really exciting prospect for trainer G M Lyons. Whistlejacket and Arizona Blaze who finished second and third weren't too far ahead of my selection that day and both have solid form at Group level, in particular, Whistlejacket who bounced back to winning ways recently when winning a Group 1 over in Deauville.

Tommie Beau 9/4 – Cartmel 4.40

For my last selection on Monday, I've gone hunting at Cartmel, which is the only jumps meeting on offer to punters throughout UK and Ireland on Monday. I like the look of Tommie Beau, he has to carry top weight in this contest against some interesting opposition which is never ideal but I think he can pull it off for trainer Seamus Mullins.

When it comes to studying horses there are plenty of factors that can be looked into before finally choosing your selection and course form is one that I find particularly important. Tommie Beau tends to run well at this venue with recent form figures of 4112 in his previous four outings at the track. My selection won twice within two days at this track over both hurdles and fences before returning back to Cartmel after a 3 month break to finish runner behind Lizzie Quinlans City Derby in his most recent outing. The form of that second reads well given City Derby has won four on the bounce and recently boosted the form when winning here on Saturday. City Derby is due to run at Cartmel in the 4.02 so it could be worth looking out for the result as it could further boost the form of my selections recent outing.

Tommie Beau has already gotten the better of a few of these already ( Charlie Uberalles, Coqolino and Scipion ) when they met at this venue during the May meeting. Those just mentioned are not the horses that I'm worried about, however, the Ben Haslam trained Ilikethewayurthinkin looks like a possible danger and arrives here in search of a hat trick after back-to-back wins at this course between June and July. With that said, Tommie Beau should be fit and ready to go after a recent outing, and I think his class will prevail against this bunch.

Rizzel's tips

Padishakh 15/2 Each Way – Ripon 3.47

I'm not one for following trends in races, but I thought it was noticeable that the last 3-year-old to win this race was Wannabe King from back in 2009, so if you're a supporter of the Roger Varian runner it doesn't bode well. Not only that, but the horses carrying the heavier weights have done very well, with the last two winners racing off 9st 13lbs and 10st 2lbs, which is a positive for my selection Padishakh who has to shoulder 9st 10lbs.

David O'Meara has done well in this race over the years, with four wins to his name since 2014, two of which came since 2020 and in the two years in between his wins, he saddled no runners, so is effectively 2/2 in recent years when having a runner in the race. He has a couple in this race, but Danny Tudhope is on board my selection and that's normally a big indicator of which horse from the yard has the better chance. Even with Danny siding with Padishakh, I thought the horse's claims were quite strong based on how his form was much improved last time out.

Padishakh has only had three for David O'Meara, with the first two not blowing anyone away, but the intentions of him being a good horse were there from the get-go as he was chucked into a Listed race on stable debut and then the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot the time after. Last time out at Thirsk in a Class 2 race he broke slowly and wasn't really put into the race, which saw the pace hold strong so coming from the back was a tough ask. You'll need a fair amount of faith to back him based on that recent run for today's race which is competitive, but looking at how good he was when he was trained in France, his falling mark of 94 makes him an attractive bet. He was running some good races in Class 1 races in France last year when trained by J-C Rouget, including a second to Big Rock who was one of the best 3-year-olds in the business. Then he was a close second in a Listed race in July, on both occasions he produced an RPR of 105 and showed he likes ground with a bit of juice. Today, the ground will probably be good, with good to soft in places, or maybe good to soft, good in places which would aid him more than the faster ground he has previously been on. His fitness should be coming to 100% with two relatively recent runs, and if he can put in a similar best RPR to last year off his current mark of 94, he has to be a player.

High Velocity – Southwell 4.30

Thank the lord that Southwell isn't a sandpit anymore, as backing horses on that surface from a few years ago was a total disaster, and it really was like the old saying, horses for courses. The track is definitely a more level playing field today with it being Tapeta, but we still see horses preferring the artificial surfaces to turf and High Velocity is one of those.

High Velocity is 4/14 on the All-weather and is 0/8 with just two placed efforts to his name on the turf, so a return to Southwell is definitely a point in the right direction. His form since moving to David Loughnane's yard has taken a nosedive, but when he was previously with James Tate he was a decent handicapper and managed to win a class 4 handicap at today's venue over 5f off a mark of 83, producing an RPR of 92 on that day. He is just as effective over today's trip of 6f, as he has shown by finishing closely in Class 3 races at Lingfield, producing performances worthy of low 90s in those races as well. This year since moving to his new stable on the back of a 393-day absence they have been trying him over a number of trips and explored turf in his last three starts. He ran well in a couple of his runs on the all-weather at the start of his move to the new stable, finishing 5th/9, 2.75L behind the winner and 4th/10 3.5L behind the winner. They then tried him over 7f which didn't work and then put him on turf which was never going to work, but his last two runs have shown that he is in good form, as he wasn't beaten out of site, especially last time out when quietly fancied in the market.

Due to him running on the turf, it has seen his handicap mark on the all-weather take a slight dip as well, which means he is now rated 69. This mark makes him look really attractive for today's race, and if he shows an ounce of what he is capable of now back on his favourite surface, he is dangerous to look past.

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